Hybrid and Diesel Marketshare Projections

31 August 2004

Oak Ridge National Laboratory, in conjunction with Energy & Environmental Analysis and J. D. Power and Associates has projected possible hybrid and diesel marketshare in the US through 2012. Unfortunately, it did not incude diesel hybrids in its work.

Based on an assessment of the status and outlook for the two technologies, market shares were predicted for 2008, 2012 and beyond, assuming no additional increase in fuel economy standards or other new policy initiatives. Current tax incentives for hybrids are assumed to be phased out by 2008.

Given announced and likely introductions by 2008, hybrids could capture 4–7% and diesels 2–4% of the light-duty market. Based on our best guesses for further introductions, these shares could increase to 10–15% for hybrids and 4–7% for diesels by 2012.

The resulting impacts on fleet average fuel economy would be about +2% in 2008 and +4% in 2012. If diesels and hybrids were widely available across vehicle classes, makes, and models, they could capture 40% or more of the light-duty vehicle market.

The projected impact on fuel economy is lower than you might think because of the different types of hybrids included in the mix. In the assumptions, full hybrids such as the Prius represent approximately half of the hybrid mix. The other types of hybrids, while they help fuel economy, do not contribute the same level of improvement.

The report can be downloaded from here.