Lies, Damn Lies, and Polls

11 December 2004

Harris Interactive has released a new study of 15,000 US consumers in which it concludes that enhanced fuel economy attracts strong consumer purchase interest. The study found that 63% of U.S. adult consumers are likely to purchase a new vehicle with enhanced fuel economy, if they have the option, in their next vehicle purchase.

Hmm. We haven’t exactly seen that behavior manifested in the monthly sales figures that show the percentage of light duty trucks and SUVs holding at 61%. But with polls and surveys, so much depends on how the questions are worded, and how the interviewer may explain an unknown product and then probe for an answer.

Here’s a summary of some of the findings:

I initially discounted both the fuel cell and clean diesel findings as resulting from a lack of understanding about the actual technology. (I doubt 52% will want to wait 10–15+ years for an affordable fuel cell vehicle—but most would have to agree that the concept sounds good.) The % Familiar number bears that out (and it’s a safe assumption that a percentage that claimed familiarity actually did not have it. Be interesting to see the cross tabs between those who said they are likely to buy, and those who are familiar.)

The hybrid number, though, is interesting. A much higher level of familiarity—even slightly higher than those likely to purchase. Even discounting results for all the factors above, the combination of likely to buy and familiarity suggests that the uptake for hybrids could be more rapid than some automakers have projected.

Then again, you hit the question of what, exactly, is a hybrid, and what is the aggregate benefit? Given that automakers will implement various elements of hybrid drives (from micro hybrids such as the GM Silverado to full hybrids such as the Prius) across their lines, what will the aggregate reduction in fuel consumption be? Answer: not as large as you might think. 

Regardless of the specifics, it is positive, I think, for a projected majority of US buyers to at least be aware of fuel economy as a factor, and something they would take into increased consideration in a future purchase. At least there is something to work with.