Iran Determined to Remain an Energy Supplier to the World—and That Means Nuclear

2 February 2005

Reuters. Iran, accused by Washington of developing nuclear weapons, is determined to become one of the world’s suppliers of nuclear fuel, a senior Iranian official said on Tuesday.

Sirus Naseri, a senior member of Iran’s delegation to the U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said a five-year moratorium on the creation of new nuclear fuel proposed last year by Mohamed ElBaradei would be tantamount to handing the world's few existing nuclear fuel suppliers a monopoly.

Iran’s nuclear program is a point of global contention. Iran says its program is aimed solely at the generation of electricity but the US and the EU believe its nuclear fuel production capabilities could one day be used to produce high-enriched uranium for use in atomic weapons.

Another Iranian official said the Europeans were simply trying to clear the way for themselves and Russia to have a monopoly on fuel supply in the region.

Naseri said Iran, the second biggest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), wanted to ensure it remained a supplier of energy to the world.

“With diminishing exports of oil, Iran has to be a supplier. Iran is used to being a net supplier of energy rather than a sole receiver,” he said. “We are definitely going to be a player,” he added.

Very interesting. The Iranian government has been clear about the dangers of relying on petroleum as the foundation for its economy and executives within the Iranian oil ministry have been direct about their views on the  approach of global peak oil production. Iran has also been working to diversify its economy—hence the increasing focus on natural gas and other industries.

The stated intention of becoming a nuclear fuels supplier is not far-fetched, and fits within the context of years of public statements about the future of petroleum. Could it be a very clever cover for a nuclear weapons program? Sure. But weapons aside, a focus on nuclear fuel is strategically sound for the country, given the emerging energy picture.

Developing the ability to remain an energy supplier, rather than an importer, will be more important for the country long-term than the ability to develop some nuclear weapons. The resistance to a moratorium either indicates that there is a covert weapons program underway that needs to continue, or that Iran really believes that its own peaking will come sooner rather than later, and that is is aggressively trying to get the pieces in place to allow its economy to grow.

Neither possibility is good news. The West is working to preclude the first option; it needs to recognize the possible imminence of the second, and take the appropriate energy policy actions. As, it seems, Iran may be  doing.