Evacuations Begin Again: GOM Prepares for Rita

19 September 2005

Rita’s forecast track

With Tropical Storm Rita gathering strength and forecast to enter the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), oil companies have begun evacuating some of their easternmost platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.

Galveston Island (Texas) officials are calling for a voluntary evacuation if the picture doesn’t change by tomorrow and are considering a mandatory evacuation. (Houston Chronicle) (The Florida Keys, where the storm will strike earlier, is currently under evacuation.)

It is still early in the storm’s lifecycle to be precise as to where the major blow will fall, but the question—aside from the critical issue of how intense will this storm become—appears to be whether it will veer more toward New Orleans, or toward Galveston.

According to the most recent discussion from the National Hurricane Center as of 5 PM EDT:

Even though Rita is not yet a hurricane, conditions appear conducive for it to become one soon, prior to reaching the Gulf of Mexico. Intensification to major hurricane status over the Gulf of Mexico appears probable.

Additionally, ocean temperatures are quite warm in the Gulf, and not just at the surface. The new official intensity forecast...[is] calling for a peak at 105 knots over the Gulf. [...] The GFDL and FSU superensemble forecast an even stronger hurricane over the Gulf, and this is certainly possible.

With 105-knot (120.8 mph) winds, Rita would be a Category 3 Hurricane (wind speeds from 96–113 knots, or 111—130 mph) with a storm surge typically 9–12 feet above normal.

As of today, shut-in oil production in the GOM as a result of Katrina is still some 837,648 bpd, or equivalent to 55.84% of daily oil production. Shut-in gas production is 3.375 billion cubic feet per day, equivalent to 33.75% of the daily gas production.

Cumulative shut-in oil production for the period from 26 Aug to 19 Sep is 24,735,216 bbls, equivalent to 4.518% of yearly production of oil in the GOM.

The pace of restoration from Katrina is expected to be much more similar to Hurricane Ivan than any of the other recent hurricanes.

As the chart from the EIA shows, indications are that recovery from Katrina’s outages, due to their severity, will be more akin to those of recovery from Ivan—i.e., a long, drawn-out matter of months.

The prospect of piling additional storm losses from Rita on top of that is unnerving the energy markets, which had its own price storm surge with a record daily advance of more than $4 per barrel.

And in New Orleans, Mayor Ray Nagin has suspended his push to bring more people back to the ravaged city.