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Toyota Sees All-Hybrid Future

13 September 2005

Bloomberg. At the Frankfurt IAA, Toyota Executive Vice President Kazuo Okamoto said all of the company’s vehicles will eventually be based on hybrid powertrains.

Toyota also indicated that it aims to increase hybrid production by 60% in 2006 and will cut costs and prices to make them more affordable.

In the future, the cars you see from Toyota will be 100 percent hybrid. We believe that in 10 years the world will be filled with hybrids.

Okamoto declined to provide a timeline. Toyota has stated that it plans to sell 1 million hybrids a year by 2010.

Earlier, President Katsuaki Watanabe said he aims to halve the premium in price of hybrids over conventional vehicles as soon as possible.

September 13, 2005 in Hybrids | Permalink | Comments (16) | TrackBack (3)

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Now this is great news. Toyota realizes that the American automakers with their Republicans puppets in Washington will do nothing to protect the American consumer from high gas prices. So they decide to protect us from the Republicans. I would... [Read More]

Comments

I'm as big a fan of increased MPG as anyone here, I suspect, but I'm growing a little tired of some companies trying to morph hybrids from one approach into the One True Answer. Heck, as of 2005 Honda had a Civic HX model that was a non-hybrid, gasoline ICE that got 44MPG on the highway, without sacrificing performance. That compares very favorably with the real-world MPG of a Civic Hybrid or a Prius, and at a much lower purchase price.

I think it's clear that car companies selling in the US want to push hybrids because of the higher profits, and we'll only see a major push on diesels when one of the major companies that's falling behind breaks from the pack.

Sure, a diesel hybrid would be even better, but you can get a lot of additional MPG by switching from a current gasoline engine to a slightly downsized diesel, and keep the price far more reasonable.

I think we're headed for a re-shuffling of the US car market, where the high MPG entry level cars are diesels and the more expensive (and more efficient) cars are diesel hybrids, some plug-ins.

In 10 years you will be buying a 100mpg and not thinking anything of it.

Paul is probably right but will it be Plug-in Hybrids with 100+ Km on batteries only and up to 180+ miles/gallon of fuel; extended range (400+ Km)EV's with quick charge batteries and zero fuel and zero pollution; or super efficient (100 miles/gallon) reduced pollution bio-diesels?
All three approaches are possible within the next 10-year time frame but most probably from abroard, i.e. efficient diesels from Europe, affordable Plug-ins and Evs from Asia and Europe where the price of fuel is much higher and drivers are willing to pay more for reduced fuel consumption and reduced pollution vehicles.

Europe has historically sacrificed pollution control (particulates and NOx) to achieve greater economy.

I'm a fan of diesels (got one m'self so I could use biodiesel in a pinch) but I don't see how they can achieve radical increases in penetration unless pollution controls are relaxed.  We're just now getting to the point where particulate traps and SCR cats for NOx can bring diesels to the level we expect of gasoline cars.  This doesn't seem too likely for vehicles which need to meet California specs.

It's more efficient to burn oil in a combined-cycle electric powerplant and use the electricity in a plug-in hybrid than it is to burn fuel in the hybrid's engine.  Most of our electricity comes from non-petroleum sources, with nearly 27% of it completely non-fossil.  That's definitely the way to go.

The hybrid or diesel choice depends mostly on where you live and work. A high percentage are in stop and go traffic jams every day where a hybrid that turns off its engine at low speeds would be much better than an idling diesel. For the few who are in rural and small towns that don't even have a traffic signal and long constant speed driving is common then diesels beat hybrids.
I see the solution to the NOx and particulate problem in diesels is a zeolite nitrogen absorbant which keeps the nitrogen out of the cylinder in the first place. Then the oxygen rich gases would completely convert all the carbon into CO2 leaving no particulates in the exhaust. since the amount of gases entering the cylinder would be nearly 80% less then displacement could be reduced by 80%for the same power with concurrent weight savings.

If you think that you can run an engine (diesel OR Otto) on pure oxygen with near-stoichiometric air:fuel ratios and conventional materials, I've got a bridge for sale.

Too bad the Yaris that they are bringing to Canada won't have a CVT... Oh well, at least now the emissions are rated ULEV and the building process is said to be more eco-friendly.

Diesels have improved tremendously emission-wise in the past 10 years or so, similar to what happened to gasoline cars when catalyzers were introduced and leaded gas phased out.

My understanding is that by 2010 or so, emission standards for both diesels and gasoline vehicles will have largely become "strict enough" that particulates, NOx, CO etc. no longer constitute a big threat to public health. At that point the focus will shift towards reducing CO2 emissions, that is improving fuel economy. And in that game, the diesel beats the gasoline engine.

Of course, in the even longer run, it might be that HCCI will largely replace both diesels and gasoline engines. Time will tell.

I agree that pure oxygen may not be feasable with current materials. A nitrogen absorbant system may take up too much space or be too heavy. My point is that the only component of tailpipe pollution to be completely removed has been lead. We didn't do that by capturing the lead in some sort of tailpipe filter. We did it by not puting it in the cylinder in the first place. I really like the zinc air concept but wonder if an 18 wheeler could use it.

Well, let's see.  If you can devote 7500 pounds of a tractor to its combined "fuel" and "engine" (electric motors are light) and you use Electric Fuel's bus cells, you'd be able to carry 38 of them.  Total energy would be 38 * 17.4 kWh = 661 kWh.  If you did some aerodynamic cleanup to let the semi achieve 10 MPG and its engine efficiency is 35%, it would be using 1.5 kWh/mile [1] and the batteries would allow 440 miles of range.  That's not much compared to what you'd get from 200 gallons of diesel at even 6 MPG, but it's clearly not impractical.

If you combined this with a dual-mode (road/rail) system like Blade Runner and electrified the rail system, you'd have unlimited range on the rails and several hundred miles off-rail range.  That's sufficient for most everything.

[1] If diesel fuel has 19,110 BTU/lbm and 7.67 lbm/gallon, each gallon has 146,600 BTU/gallon (42.9 kWh/gallon).  Conversion at 35% efficiency yields 15.0 kWh/gallon, so 10 MPG would be equivalent to 1.5 kWh/mile.

Toyota has made a big shif on auto market upon releasing the Hybrids. They must be the biggest company to invest on a big hit like the Toyota Prius. Other alternatives should also be taken into consideration.

Electric vehicles are more efficient these days. Other sources such as Hydrogen and Bio-fuel need further developments.

I wish Toyota would simply bring their very clean and efficient diesel engined cars to the USA. Europe, Oceania, and Asia have cars like the Yaris which get 62 MPG. Bring them here! Is Toyota afraid that that move would cut into its hybrid business?

I haven't heard anything from Toyota about a turbo diesel hybrid. Are they resting on their laurels? If the Yaris can get 62 MPG with a 1.4 liter diesel in England, what would it get with a turbo diesel hybrid in America? My guess is 75 to 80 MPG!!!

I would buy a diesel or turbo diesel hybrid Scion xB tomorrow if one were available. And I suspect there are many more like me who would love a roomy, very economical 'lunch box' to drive. Has Toyota stopprd innovating like GM did 30 years ago?

Plugin hybrids are the next big step. I'd also love to see more small hybrids similar to the Honda Insight but with 4 seats instead of 2.
Combining full hybrids with plugin capacbility and bio-fuels like ethanol and biodiesel will be another great step ahead.
GM-Saab EVen has a prototype Saab 9-5 100% ethanol plugin hybrid convertible in a car show in Europe. What a big leap that would be. Maybe the EV1 and other full EVs will be available soon.
It's about time we have some real choices.
Jim

I agree that plug-in hybrids are the way to go. Looking ahead ten to fifteen years, transportation in general MUST move to an electric base. There is no way around it. The only question then will be, "How do we most efficiently produce electricy?" Once you get to that step, plug-in hybrids make a lot of sense. The next issue will be, "If I have a plug-in hybrid, and I always recharge, and I never drive very far, how long will my gas last? Gas cannnot sit indefinitely in the tank. After three to six months it will "go bad". Another follow-up question will be, "How do we meet increased electricy delivery loads with fossil fuels?" The most difficult aspect of electricty generation will be mnaging demand load variation. Coal is te single best source of load variation management. Solar, nuclear, wind, hydro, all provide continuous load. Coal, natural gas and oil can all be used to provide variable load. But they are all fossil fuels. Interestingly, plugin hybrids (more specifically hybrid's battery packs), may be used, themselves, to manage electricy load variation. In any case, solar, wind and nuclear will all have to become much more widely used for any conversion to electricty use to be effective. (The assumption being electrcicy from fossil fuels is inherently ineffective-not quite true). Interestingly, a new solar tower concept, not yet in use, provides solar/wind synergy in a way which can store large loads, and thus provide variable load capacity approximating fossil fuel. (google "solar tower enviromission" for more details).

Hybrids are grate and plug in hybrids even better especially when they are really electric vehicles with range expender gas engines. One problem I have is that going pure electric would be even better cheaper in the short and long run as the electric motor is a much simper (cheeper) device then an ICE.
Although rely efficient batteries are vary expensive right now top of the line led acid batteries are cheep and if placed in the right car care can give highway speeds and ranges from 20 to 60 miles.
To me the Toyota Yaris with it’s low weight and relative roominess would be a good candidate for a conversion to full electric I am looking into doing just that. There are lost of back yard electric vehicle makers right now and it seems that the technology is there but car companies are afraid to go down that path because they feel states like CA will go back to the 0 emitions regulations of the 90s and gas companies have an interest in keeping there market in tact and regulators at some level do not want to see gas taxes not getting paid Oy.
Well those are my that’s. I plan to take action to reduce my carbin impact save money and join then thousands of people not waiting for car companies and regulators to get over there issues and go back to building practical affordable everyday electric cars.

If Toyota would put the Prius hybrid technology in the Matrix or Yavis they would sell like hot cakes. I think people are looking for a small Hybrid Suv.

I would buy it for sure.

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