2030 Fuel Roadmap for the Asia-Pacific Region

8 November 2005

Integration of the future fuel supply.

The Thailand-based APEC Center for Technology Foresight recently concluded a two-day symposium on future fuel technologies for the Asia-Pacific region as one element in a larger project on Future Fuels led by Thailand, Canada and Taiwan.

The symposium—Foresighting Future Fuel Technology—served as a venue for reporting to the public the work of the past two years on developing scenarios and fuel technology roadmaps to anticipate and manage changes in energy futures in the APEC region, and to develop effective policies and strategies for the medium- to long-term future.

The project, which viewed fuel futures in the context of six discrete scenarios, concluded that the problem is best addressed in looking at the integration of fuel and energy supplies to make maximum use of the investment in extraction, production and distribution infrastructure while meeting needs for overall energy security.

The project team developed an integrated fuel technology roadmap (shown above) that tries to address that conceptually.

Three key drivers underlay the diagram:

1. The need for a diversity of energy sources for security of supply;

2. The creation of a low carbon economy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and thus mitigate climate change and its impacts;

3. The need to improve urban air quality for public health reasons.

While the integration diagram attempts to present a general picture for the APEC region, the pattern of timing and fuel priority will vary from one economy to another depending on resource base, economic situation and technological capability.

The six scenarios ranged from dystopian descriptions of resource wars, through business as usual, to optimistic outcomes. Despite surface differences, the project teams found that the scenarios had any similar features including:

• The focus on coping with increasing energy demand by using a combination of fuel technologies.

• All anticipate significant turbulence in the region, associated with conflicts over resources.

• Increased impacts of climate change due to increasing emissions of greenhouse gases from fossil fuels, particularly coal, are major drivers of attitudinal change.

• The important role of renewable energy technologies for security and economic growth.

• Air quality issue drive the adoption of vehicles using alternative fuels.

And again, regardless of the scenario, a number of issues emerged that need to be addressed in considering energy futures in APEC:

• There is no unique solution to the future fuel needs of APEC economies. To ensure energy security an integrated approach is needed in which various energy technologies can make significant contributions. There are large differences between APEC economies in their energy resources and their energy needs and the approach will be different for each economy.

• Development and application of energy technologies such as photovoltaics, wind turbines and advanced nuclear reactors are important components of an integrated energy system.

• The impact of a strong push to a low carbon economy in response to concerns over climate change could affect significantly the path of development of alternative fuel technologies.

• There is a clear need for cooperation and exchange of research information and personnel in materials and energy R&D within APEC. Thus the development of improved catalysts through application of nanotechnology in a developed economy could significantly alter the economics of production of biofuels in a developing economy.

• The resistance to change from manufacturers and distributors of vehicles, from electricity generating and distributing companies, from petroleum companies and the general public should not be underestimated when considering future energy strategies. Thus the internal combustion engine will continue to play a major role in transport over the medium term; however slow change will occur through the introduction of hybrid vehicles.

• Long-term planning for energy infrastructure must take into account the anticipated changes in fuel technologies and also developments in other energy sectors. Thus the development of improved distribution systems, e.g. superconducting cables for electricity or higher pressure gas pipelines could alter national and regional energy production and distribution patterns.

Resources:

• APEC 2030 Integrated Fuel Technology Roadmap

• Foresighting Future Fuel Technology: Draft Summary Report