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Rumors Rampant: Next-Gen 94MPG Prius by 2008?
10 April 2006
The UK’s AutoExpress reports that Toyota’s fuel economy target for the upcoming next-generation Prius is 40 kilometers/liter (2.5 l/100km, or 94 mpg US), and that the automaker is striving to have the new Prius on the road as early as 2008.
According to a Toyota engineer quoted by the publication, the entire electrical system is being redesigned to improve the fuel economy, and the automaker is working to switch to a lithium-ion battery system from the NiMH pack used in the current Prius.
Part of the impetus for the dramatic improvement in fuel consumption is to position the Prius to compete more effectively against the more fuel-efficient diesels that now dominate the European market, according to the report.
At 94 mpg, the redesigned Prius would approach the lower end of the projected 100–150 mpg fuel consumption of EDrive’s aftermarket plug-in Prius. (Earlier post.) The EDrive conversion currently carries a price tag of about $12,000 in addition to the cost of the base Prius.
The AutoExpress report did not indicate if Toyota was working with a plug-in configuration, or if the company is exploring major changes in the combustion engine.
April 10, 2006 in Hybrids | Permalink | Comments (73) | TrackBack (0)
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"At 94 mpg, the redesigned Prius would approach the lower end of the projected 100–150 mpg fuel consumption of EDrive’s aftermarket plug-in Prius. (Earlier post.) The EDrive conversion currently carries a price tag of about $12,000 in addition to the cost of the base Prius."
Now the plug-in zealots won't be satisfied with 94 mpg. :)
Posted by: Joseph Willemssen | Apr 10, 2006 11:00:08 AM
One thing I was thinking about regarding high MPG vehicles is the impact on long road trips.
I've driven from Western VA/NC to NY/CT/MA about 50 times in my life. It's a solid 400-550 miles, depending on actual source and destination.
I only stop for gas.
I wonder if I would stop if I didn't have to, and how that would effect my safety.
I'm not saying that a 94 mpg Prius is bad, just wondering aloud about secondary and tertiary effects.
Posted by: stomv | Apr 10, 2006 11:11:27 AM
The Plug-in Hybrid's 100+ mpg is possible only when daily driving range is kept under 30 miles or less. For longer trips, average mileage will drop to under 50 mpg and less, depending upon the weight and class of the vehicle. If we want high mileage, we must drive less. And this initiates the resolution to the problem of too many cars and too great a need for long-distance travel.
The more fuel efficient vehicle for long-distance travel is mass transit. Denver operates a fleet of hybrid shuttles on their transit mall. They're a 45' completely low-floor bus with 4-doors and a 4-cyl 70hp engine (natural gas fueled), the same size as the Prius engine. The shuttle passenger capacity however is 117.
Posted by: Wells | Apr 10, 2006 11:39:41 AM
Our problems won't be solved by technology; they will only be solved by a change in our cultural, social, and political landscape. High mileage cars are nice (I have a Prius), but not if we're just using them so we can live farther and farther from work and drive longer and longer distances.
Stormy. Suggest you just stop every couple hundred of and stretch. Worrying about whether we'll stop often enough is the least of our problems.
Wells: The Denver pedestrian mall is a thing of beauty. Most people walk up and down the mall, by the way. But the shuttle is damn convenient if you're in a hurry to get from one end of the mall to the other. And you forgot to mention that it is free. All public transit should be free.
While we're giving away hundreds of millions of dollars for things like hydrogen, let's give a few million to the person who can figure out how to get people out of their damn cars.
Posted by: t | Apr 10, 2006 12:12:00 PM
"The more fuel efficient vehicle for long-distance travel is mass transit. Denver operates a fleet of hybrid shuttles on their transit mall. They're a 45' completely low-floor bus with 4-doors and a 4-cyl 70hp engine (natural gas fueled), the same size as the Prius engine. The shuttle passenger capacity however is 117."
I'm a little confused. First you're mentioning long-distance travel, then your example for an efficient means of long-distance travel is a bus which has a one mile route on a dedicated busway? Plus, the passenger capacity of that bus is primarily standing passengers (since it's a short-distance shuttle). There's very few seats on those buses.
As for the powertrain, the 70hp figure is deceptive (since obviously one needs way more than a 4-banger with 70 hp to move a big bus with 100+ passengers). It's actually a series hybrid running a 2.5 liter engine off of CNG which charges batteries which power DC motors providing 440 hp at the wheels. The Prius has a 1.5 liter engine and is a series/parallel hybrid.
Posted by: Joseph Willemssen | Apr 10, 2006 12:14:49 PM
I believe that plug-ins will most certainly be catching on by 2008. That’s time for a lot of lithium battery progress. Therefore, I don’t believe Toyota would come out with a “prior” generation vehicle in 2008, that is NOT a plug-in! I hope this isn’t just wishful thinking
Posted by: George | Apr 10, 2006 12:35:51 PM
t, the 16th street mall is great but the shuttles are slow. I found that I can easily out jog them to get down from one end to the other. When I worked in lodo I used to race them from market street down to broadway on the other end. I never lost. I'm not in great shape either. Still, the buses are nice. Also, I don't think that the Prius or other high mileage vehicles are causing sprall. Property values have a much greater impact.
Posted by: Tripp Bisop | Apr 10, 2006 1:33:14 PM
The rising price of gas will outpace the changeover to high mileage vehicals. So don't worry about sprall, everyone might be forced to huddle together by the time major changes occur. Its a step in the right direction, lets hope other automakers follow suit. Not sure that the gasoline engine will make since in the lifetime of the 2008 Prius (20 years). I'd rather buy a diesel.
Posted by: Mike H. | Apr 10, 2006 2:22:26 PM
Cheer up lads. If Toyota pull this off, it will be brilliant. Even if they don't. it is a wake up call for the other car manufacturers.
They say it will run on battery in slow traffic and switch to petrol when it gets faster - doesn't sound like a plug in at this stage. I guess you could always hack it for EV only.
A s/w only hack might do the job for smaller distances.
But Go Toyota - this is the stuff we want to see !
Posted by: mahonj | Apr 10, 2006 2:25:57 PM
I wish that GM could have similar vision. I fear they are headed for Chapter 11.
Posted by: eric | Apr 10, 2006 2:33:44 PM
Even plug ins need to switch to gas at high speeds. So that feature has nothing to do with whether or not it is a plug in. It has to do with the power of the electric motor and the power density of the battery.
Posted by: t | Apr 10, 2006 2:35:57 PM
Oe needs remember that Lithium Ions have many times the storage capacity of NIMHs, and weigh a whole lot less.
This example shows you that just because it's good, doesn't mean it can't be made better.
If someone had built my suggestion about a BioDiesel Hybrid when I first suggested it several years ago, we could be driving powerful vehicles today that get well past 100 mpg. It's nice to see Mitsubshi and Toyota nibbling around the edges, but not a one is brave enough to go all the way.
Posted by: Lucas | Apr 10, 2006 2:37:41 PM
If this report is true, Prius must be going plug-in. I don't see how you almost double the overall thermal efficiency of the existing Prius, which is what is implied by 94mpg.
Posted by: Nick | Apr 10, 2006 3:27:09 PM
First of all alot of mass trnsits are in dire straights because thier fuel costs are also going up. They were only cheap because they got etremely cheap fuel.
Now they are cutting back routes left and right to concentrate on busy routes and thus cant do even 1/10th the job needed.
Posted by: wintermane | Apr 10, 2006 3:52:12 PM
Stormy: The motorman's friend? I need to unload more often than the car needs to load:-)
Eric: GM: RIP.
Posted by: Robert Schwartz | Apr 10, 2006 4:31:46 PM
I would love to see how they are going to achieve this with a gas engine.
Maybe HCCI is the core ICE technology. The lithium ion batteries must really boost effective EV range.
Weight is another factor. They must be looking at ways to radically reduce weight (other than the batteries).
Posted by: Lance Funston | Apr 10, 2006 4:48:09 PM
Deathwatch part 65 just posted, not as biting as some, but still interesting if you read it
http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/content/11446279491694877051/index.php
Posted by: duh | Apr 10, 2006 5:05:49 PM
"All public transit should be free."
The government has to finance it somehow, and just a reminder April 15th is this Saturday :)
This is great news if any of it is true. Toyota said with the launch of the Camry hybrid they could make the Prius more extreme, maybe this is what they meant by it. I also read somewhere that Toyota wanted to get this new Prius out, not only to keep distance on some diesels in Europe but for the new Prius to be out before Mitsubishi, Subaru or any other automaker comes out with an all electric car.
And about plug ins having to switch to gasoline at high speeds, they don't HAVE to...GM's EV1 could cruise on teh highway right? And what was it's top speed when not governed? And how far have we come since then?
Posted by: Eric | Apr 10, 2006 5:10:07 PM
A 94 mpg Prius? Yes it can be done but not without a big change. Lighter or bigger batteries wont do it. More electric power wont do it. You need to get more effiency out of the gas engine itself. One way to do this is with an exhaust powered generator. This my friends is not free engergy but it comes close. There is back pressure created but its not as much as the energy extracted. The exhaust actually exits cooler as more energy has been extracted from it.
The exhaust generator would generate more power for electric mode.
94mpg could also come from a HCCI gas engine which also wrings more power out of each gallon of gas.
The control electronics can get about 10% or so better with current advances in semiconductors with almost no increase in cost. They currently get quite hot and newer parts available today generate far less heat.
Posted by: hampden wireless | Apr 10, 2006 5:59:05 PM
Plug-in hybrid will never improve the MPG. Because the battery charge state has to be same before and after the fuel consumption test. 100-150 mpg test result is possible if Plug-in electric energy is used, but it is not the fair test. 500-1,000 mpg test result is also possible if such test is allowed.
I am sure Plug-in hybrid is not the direction to go.
Posted by: Yoshi | Apr 10, 2006 6:22:44 PM
Yoshi, given the right driving conditions your point is irrelevant. People with short commutes will rarely need gasoline, especially if they are doing low speed city driving. Also, it should be pointed out that the 94 MPG probably comes from the japanese MPG test which gives the current Prius high numbers. Thus, the 94 MPG isn't as big a leap as it sounds and in real world conditions it may be difficult to achieve depending on commute, traffic patterns, weather, etc....
Posted by: Tripp | Apr 10, 2006 6:31:08 PM
"People with short commutes will rarely need gasoline, especially if they are doing low speed city driving."
In which case, why are they driving a 4,000 pound vehicle to do it?
Posted by: Joseph Willemssen | Apr 10, 2006 6:48:10 PM
The new Prius will not be plug-in. Toyota has invested millions of dollars advertising the fact that you don't have to plug it in, and are firmly committed to that for the time present at least. The savings will come from a few things:
1) better battery technology
2) more efficient use of electric engine
3) lighter weight. The car can currently get much lighter by switching to an aluminum, using a tube frame, or carbon fiber body. Expect at least one of the above, but probably not all three.
Posted by: Alex Krupp | Apr 10, 2006 6:49:26 PM
Alex, I wouldn't write off PHEVs from Toyota solely based on some of the previous hybrid ads. They've already said they're going to take the Prius more extreme, making it a PHEV would do just that. That's not to say that they're going to make the Camry Hybrid, Highlander Hybrid, RX400h, GS450h, LS600h all plug ins as well. Toyota will probably not make all of those models plug ins (atleast not any time in the near future), they want have hybrid versions of every vehicle they make so they need to appeal to the mainstream and most of the mainstream isn't ready for PHEVs. The Camry hybrid (and other Toyota hybrids) will be for "the mainstream", the new Prius will be going "more extreme" as Toyota has already said.
Posted by: Eric | Apr 10, 2006 7:02:02 PM
"Alex, I wouldn't write off PHEVs from Toyota solely based on some of the previous hybrid ads."
$20 says it won't be a plug-in.
Posted by: Joseph Willemssen | Apr 10, 2006 7:10:23 PM
The Prius will not go all aluminum like the Insight. Its just too expensive. Many say the Insight costs more then $30,000 to build. They may use more aluminum like in doors and other places but nothing like the Insight. Carbon fiber could again be used in parts but not the whole car.
The better batteries will be in there. That is almost a no brainer.
The electric motor cant get too much more efficient. Its about as good as you can get. Just the control electronics can get better, and only by about 20%. I hear they are currently 80% efficient so thats a pretty hard limit.
Posted by: hampden wireless | Apr 10, 2006 7:29:56 PM
To Lucas,
PSA (Peugoet Citroen) have already built what you were thinking of. They developed the diesel hybrid a few months back, 2 of them actually, one in C4 guise and one in 307 guise - called Hdi Hybride.
Europeans will be familiar with the 110bhp ford/psa 1.6Hdi under the bonnet, which is doing a fine job of powering everything from the peugoet 407 to the volvo s40 and mazda3.
The CEO of PSA actually said it's pointless to have built a petrol powered hybrid as a regular modern diesel would beat it in power, fuel economy and C02 emmisions.
Either way, diesel hybrids like this will no doubt be common place in EU in the next few years and Toyota has the fine 89bhp D-4D in the corolla/yaris that it could hybrid, not to mention the 175hp (400Nm torque) 2.2 that currently powers the Lexus IS.
Granted, it would take a huge shift (in mindset) as well as a bit of exhaust aftertreatment to be accepted in the US, but still... my point was that in the Yaris the 1.4 D4-D does (Extra Urban/highway) 70.6mpg and(combined) 62.8mpg so a push well above 94mpgUS (121mpg) should be doable using Lithium Ion batteries, stop-start technology et. al.
...just some thoughts anyway.
Posted by: CJ | Apr 10, 2006 7:33:22 PM
t is right: technology won't save us. But it will give us much needed working space, and it's incumbent on us to make full use of that space and to recognize the limitations. That said, if Toyota can do it, this will help a lot. A couple of points though. Aluminum is energetically very expensive, so a total energy cost analysis will be instructive, if it does indeed make much use of aluminum. Yet weight will clearly be an issue: I don't see how a 3000 lb gasser will get that kind of performance -- it doesn't matter how good the electrics are, there is only so much energy in gasoline. Actually, I hope it isn't a gasser but something that can run a renewable fuel.
Posted by: d | Apr 10, 2006 8:11:14 PM
"I wonder if I would stop if I didn't have to, and how that would effect my safety."
How safe are the Prius' low rolling resistance tires in an emergency braking or swerve and recover situation.
Posted by: mango | Apr 10, 2006 8:52:21 PM
t, you and people like you will always find the cloud in every silver lining. News flash: (Thankfully), you can't control behavior, people will live where they want, and drive as far as they can afford.
Breakthroughs in both technology and marketing such as represented by PHEV's, the new Prius, etc., should be greeted with the cheers they deserve.
The anti-suburb nazis will be an even sorrier bunch in a few years when they realize the future doesn't care what they think.
Posted by: BlackSun | Apr 10, 2006 9:40:27 PM
Some people complain about "urban sprawl"...some say every vehicle should be a plug in hybrid. I live within walking distance to my work but need a car due to having kids. If I had a plug in hybrid I would be wasting my money on components that would never get used. Not that I don't want such a vehicle (I do very much want that type of vehicle) but living in a city, unless you have $500,000 + for a house you are going to be living in apartments or condos where they don't approve of you dropping 200' of extension cords out your 4th floor window and across the property up to your car.
Posted by: patrick | Apr 10, 2006 11:28:59 PM
> The Prius will not go all aluminum like the Insight. Its
> just too expensive. Many say the Insight costs more then
> $30,000 to build.
Audi just came out with the new TT, which will retail in Europe for around EUR40K. Its frame is 70% aluminum. The primary (only?) reason the other 30% - all of it in the back of the car - is steel is to improve the weight distribution of an otherwise nose-heavy vehicle, i.e. for handling in a "sporty" car.
If VAG - who have some of the worst productivity/cost numbers per car in the business - can sell a mostly aluminum, luxury car for EUR40K, I'm sure Toyota can manage to build an aluminum Prius for much less if the weight savings are important enough.
Posted by: dimitris | Apr 11, 2006 12:08:20 AM
All I can say is stuff this tech into a Mini Van.
Even if it got 60plus MPG that would be a great start.
I have kids so the Prius is too small though I could use it for work and just might buy it for that alone.
Posted by: Robert | Apr 11, 2006 3:38:04 AM
Ok, for those of you who don't want to plug in your Prius could at least plug in your brain?
The wonderful thing about PHEV's is not so much about improving MPG of the ICE but about giving the consumer a choice of what energy they use to propel their vehicles. You can never approach zero emissions with a HEV.
That is the paradigm shift.
It's disappointing to see that some readers of GCC still don’t get it, what hope the masses…
I'm with Nick, there is no new magic way to double the efficiency of an ICE.
Toyota must be testing the water for a Plug In!
Posted by: Shaun Williams | Apr 11, 2006 4:16:13 AM
And another thing;
"At 94 mpg, the redesigned Prius would approach the lower end of the projected 100–150 mpg fuel consumption of EDrive’s aftermarket plug-in Prius. (Earlier post.)"
Is a silly thing to say because IF a 94 MPG HEV is possible then surely that would give a PHEV using the same technology around 200-250 MPG fuel consumption.
Posted by: Shaun Williams | Apr 11, 2006 4:21:53 AM
"Audi just came out with the new TT, which will retail in Europe for around EUR40K. Its frame is 70% aluminum. The primary (only?) reason the other 30% - all of it in the back of the car - is steel is to improve the weight distribution of an otherwise nose-heavy vehicle, i.e. for handling in a "sporty" car." by dimitris
Newsflash, that 70% aluminum is for the body panels and doors. The frame is stll goood old steel like the golf which its based off. And believe me aluminum is still too expensive to be used as sole material for a prius. in small amounts like audi has done with the TT, but not like the insight or the audi A2 and A8.
Posted by: Tman | Apr 11, 2006 5:56:42 AM
"Is a silly thing to say because IF a 94 MPG HEV is possible then surely that would give a PHEV using the same technology around 200-250 MPG fuel consumption."
Like I said, the plug-in zealots will now be dissatisfied with 94 mpg.
Posted by: Joseph Willemssen | Apr 11, 2006 6:33:42 AM
I love this new technology as much or more than everyone else. After all, I have had a hybrid since 2002. I would do nothing to discourage this better technology and will probably be the first in line to buy it if and when it comes out.
In any event, some see my comments as clouds in silver lining. Too bad. If we neglect the big picture, we fail to achieve the goals that this technology is intended to achieve. It's not about sprawl per se, it's about the long distance driving associated with that sprawl. It's not about suburbs per se, it's about how these suburbs are constructed and how they are integral to nothing.
Posted by: t | Apr 11, 2006 6:36:40 AM
You wrote:
If VAG - who have some of the worst productivity/cost numbers per car in the business - can sell a mostly aluminum, luxury car for EUR40K, I'm sure Toyota can manage to build an aluminum Prius for much less if the weight savings are important enough.
-----------------
That makes no sense. That car is not all aluminum first of all it has a steel frame which again is my point. Second 40,000 euro's is about $48000 which is alot of money and its not even a hybrid. The next Prius might have aluminum doors, hood and more but not the frame. If the Prius was $48000 it could be made aluminum but not at $25000 or less.
Posted by: hampden wireless | Apr 11, 2006 7:26:48 AM
Toyota could go further with the Atkinson cycle to improve mileage. By making the power stroke 4 times longer than the compression stroke the engine would generate 1/2 the power but use only 1/4 the fuel of a standard engine of the same bore and stroke. There is a weight penalty involved which could be compensated for by a lighter battery pack.
Posted by: tom deplume | Apr 11, 2006 9:33:54 AM
Sorry about the thread creep, I'll reply to this and leave it alone:
> Newsflash, that 70% aluminum is for the body panels
> and doors. The frame is stll goood old steel like the
> golf which its based off.
It doesn't quite seem to be a Golf-based platform:
http://www.fourtitude.com/news/publish/Audi_News/article_2142.shtml
Buried with the rest of the marketspeak there:
> The body is constructed in the ASF Space Frame design
> developed by Audi and consists of aluminium and steel.
> This is the first time that it has combined different
> materials alongside each other. 69 percent of the
> superstructure is made of aluminium. The steel
> components making up the remaining 31 percent are to
> be found at the rear end, so as to ensure balanced
> distribution of the axle loads.
The other (and vastly more expensive) ASF vehicle on the market, the A8, has had a full aluminum body for years. The "frame" and the "body" are the same thing, these are unibody cars after all.
On cost, if a company that's not exactly known for controlling its costs can sell (at a profit) a luxury car for 40K euro, I wouldn't be surprised to see Toyota do something major with aluminum in a Prius which, among other things, amortizes R&D over more units anyway.
Posted by: dimitris | Apr 11, 2006 10:39:23 AM
My problem ... been contemplating making the 'leap' to a Prius ... but the candy is dangling in front of me ... if I wait just a little longer ....
Re Stormy & pit stops -- different way of looking at the reduced requirements for stopping for gas ... One of the forgotten values of improved gas mileage is the reduced requirement to take time out of one's life to stop at a gas station ... While we don't "pay" for that time, it has a value. Sadly, the "pay back" for Prius/fuel efficiency is done in the simplest cost of fuel analysis, without consideration of other very real economic paybacks ... even without considering the 'emotional' (I am helping) and societal (reduced pollution/reduced requirement to move fuel around) impacts ...
Posted by: Adam | Apr 11, 2006 11:36:22 AM
Hey..everybody are just talking about the lithium batttery future. There are other battery tech under development just now ...and its as powerful as lihium...but 5 times cheaper...and based upon lead acid tech... so there is hope an that front as well :) http://www.effpower.com Paul Berg, Sweden
Posted by: Paul Berg | Apr 11, 2006 12:40:54 PM
I think a substancial improvement in fuel efficiency for the '08 Prius is likely, given the improvements Toyota made from the 2003 Prius to the current model. Another area where there is room for improvement is aerodynamics, although 0.26 is very good, designers have been able to achieve sub 0.2 in concepts.
Posted by: mark | Apr 11, 2006 7:22:33 PM
My Audi A2 1,2 TDI once clocked 2,5 l / 100 km driven very carefully but not at snail speed. I usually get 3 to 3,5 l per 100 km. Toyotas 94MPG does not impress me.
Heinz
Posted by: heinz | Apr 12, 2006 12:58:49 AM
Heinz, if Toyota detuned the Prius's powertrain to make the car as slow as your A2, I'd bet it would get much more than 94 MPG.
Posted by: The Anonymous Poster | Apr 12, 2006 11:54:06 AM
Wanna guess the Tech behind the Spec of the 94-mpg-wondercar? Hmm...let's see...
-Hydrogen-boosted gasoline engine capable of increase combustion efficiency up to ~30% due to ultra lean burn...plus raising the geometric compression of the Atkinson cycle engine to well above 13:1, likely 16:1 ratio due to the boost in effect of hydrogen injection, making the engine more diesel-like in economy...
-HCCI (Homogeneous Combustion Compress Ignition), though I doubt this tech will be ready by then...
-Direct fuel injection, anyone?...
-More powerful Li-ion battery hence more electric-motor boost while making the IC engine smaller, worth another ~20% gain in efficiency...
-Smaller IC engine, lighter Li-ion battery and lighter and more energy-efficient power electronics converter, and lighter chassis reducing curb weight to ~2500lbs? Every gain in weight reduction and efficiency has a compounding effect of making other components lighter. Just a guess, but if possible, one can figure in another ~15% increase in efficiency...
Now, let's see, has anyone been adding up the numbers?
And what about the bragging rights of having the first 94mpg-5-passenger car in the market? Priceless.
Posted by: Roger Pham | Apr 12, 2006 2:26:10 PM
Some thoughts on some of the components to an efficient car based on a compact or sub-compact vehicle body/frame. (In this case, a modified GM Aveo)
use:
1: Thermovotaic and themo-electric generators/cells in the exhaust and coolant (water oil transmission hydraulic fluids) to produce electricity. (50% of waste heat)
2: Electric motor/generator and lithium ion batteries /ultracapacitors to increase mileage due to nonuse/cutback of ICE and regen braking and electric energy storage. (100% city, less highway)
3: Cylinder deactivation, engine cutoff at stop, reduced fuel mixture ratio at cruise. (variable)
4: CVT transmission for better acceleration and efficient use of max torque and hp + highway cruise at low rpm for better mileage. (20-100% around 33-50% probable)
5: Aluminum/high strength steel/plastic(M5 fiber) construction (carbon fiber later)= lower weight/center of gravity. With airbags, crash survivability/walkaway probability.
6: Delayed/smart start of engine cooling for faster engine warmup, esp cold winter start. Vacuum flask as a possible addition. (0.1-11% LA summer-Chicago winter)
7: Possible follow-on onboard hydrogen generator. Utilization of waste heat and electricity for distilation of water and mid-high temp electrolysis. Used for more complete combustion of gasoline + displacement of gasoline. Production of oxygen for combustion.
8: Electric motor for pumps and/or two stage turbo.
9: Plug-in (variable)
10: Aerodynamics (shape and anti-friction surface/paint)
This should push the mileage from 24/34 to 96/136 before plugin cap. Plugin implementattion, hydrogen, carbon fiber, aerodynamics, and low roll resist tires will push it another 10-25%.
Posted by: allen zheng | Apr 12, 2006 3:24:47 PM
From Edmunds, Differing #'s and different year.
http://www.edmunds.com/insideline/do/News/articleId=109981
Posted by: hampden wireless | Apr 12, 2006 8:35:53 PM
Direct gasoline injection for sure! It is ideally suited to frequent engine start-stop due to much lover engine evaporative emissions.
Posted by: Andrey | Apr 13, 2006 12:21:56 AM
Many have already mentioned some potential technologies the new Prius can use, and let me just add to that:
- A Dual VVT-i, Direct Injection engine is quite probable.
- HCCI engine is possible, but not likely
- exhaust gas/thermo-electric generator quite possible, as Toyota already showed a concept Estima hybrid with such a system
- lithium-ion batteries will be used on the next Prius, lowering weight, while significantly increasing power output, and energy density. The battery pack is currently the heaviest component of Toyota's HSD
- reworking of the brake regeneration systems could yield an improvement
- making the electric motors smaller and lighter; such progress can be seen with every new hybrid Toyota rolls out; The GS450h and Camry Hybrid use quite a few smaller and lighter hybrid components than the current Prius
- improving the Cd of the Prius. Hard to do, but quite possible
- lowering the weight of the Prius, which would improve economy
- using a two-stage CVT, which would help highway economy
- 94mpg US, compared with the current EPA city rating of the Prius (60mpg), is about a 56% improvement in fuel economy, not double what some are saying. 56% improvement is quite realistic and achievable.
Keep in mind, Toyota doesn't need to make a big profit on the Prius. The next Prius is said to have a hybrid system that will cost half that of the current system. Combine that with other cost cutting measures Toyota has achieved in production, and even with some exotic technologies/materials, Toyota still might make a profit on the next Prius. Even at a slight loss, Toyota would gain from the Prius. Economies of scale would quickly eliminate that loss, as well as Toyota's way of continuous improvement. Toyota has more than enough profit to absorb any probable losses with the next Prius.
The next-gen Prius has been in development from what I understand since 2002/2003. Toyota has an army of over 1000 engineers devoted specifically for hybrid development, and probably add a bunch more engineers for the Prius development.
Also, to those that mentioned diesel-hybrids. There is one major problem with diesel-hybrids, and that is cost. A diesel engine compared to a naturally aspirated gasoline engine costs several thousand more in terms of production costs. On top of that, add another several thousands in costs for the hybrid system. Europe is obsessed with C02 emissions, but the fact is that even the current Prius has lower CO2 emissions than most Diesel competitors. More importantly, a gas-hybrid has much less overall emissions than diesel, like NOx.
If Toyota achieves it's goal, or close to it for the next Prius, European sales of the Prius may likely skyrocket. Such an economical yet practical car would cause huge waves in the industry.
Posted by: toyo | Apr 14, 2006 6:03:03 PM
Diesels do not cost more to produce. They are sold at a premium because manufacturers can charge a premium because of the better fuel economy and more often than not, better performance offerred by the diesel.
Kia started selling their 110bhp 1.5 litre diesel at the same price as the petrol version. They are not making a loss are they!
(several thousands more????) don't be naive!!
Posted by: kajic | Apr 16, 2006 2:41:26 PM
Yes, diesels DO cost more to *manufacture*. They also cost more going from automaker to dealer. Almost universally, diesels cost more than comparable (in displacement, technology, power) gasoline engines.
And I am specifically referring to modern diesels, not old outdated diesels. Modern diesels use a vast amount of technology to keep emissions and particulates low, as well as to boost fuel economy, performance, and refinement.
Even the best diesels in the world are still not as refined as a good gas engine.
Posted by: toyo | Apr 17, 2006 6:39:03 PM
A2 1.2 TDI slow? Get lost! It's got more torque than my old MR2 Mk1 and weighs a lot less!
It will leave a honda insight standing on a hill climb and 30- 70 mph (real world driving as opposed to silly 0-60mph) it will leave even the newest Prius in the dust!
We had 94 mpg in 2000! I'm still driving it and loving it - it will take 4 adults and their luggage on the autobahn at 100mph all day (traffic permitting!). Averaged 58mpg at an average (yes!) 90mph on autobahn. If you stay at 55mph it will return 110 to 120 mpg.
Even had a washing machine in the back - so space is not an issue. Safety wise it has the best brakes in the business and a superb NCAP crash safety rating. Plus no big batteries for the fire crews to worry about if they had to cut you out of the wreckage!
Posted by: Lukas | Apr 18, 2006 2:16:38 AM
Toyo,
All i can say is you must live in the self absorbed bubble that is the US to say that a modern diesel is not as refined as a 'good' petrol engine.
You have never driven a merc cdi or a lexus IS diesel to say such a thing. These engines are nothing but silky thrums in the background, and you would be doing crazy speeds to really be above 3000rpm due to the masses of torque available idle.
To link this to the post, the sooner Toyota sort out this tech in the prius (for the massive Euro market if anything) the better. 94mpg is soooo yesterday!!
Posted by: kaz | Apr 23, 2006 7:13:27 AM
I drive an 05 Prius, my mileage has been as high as 60mpg and as low as 43 in the winter with snows. It always starts no matter how cold, as low as -20F. Diesels will struggle in those conditions, and while europe has embraced diesels, if I am not mistaken much of that switch came due to the lower price of diesel fuel. Here in the USA, diesel is selling for a 5-10% premium over 87 octane gas, largely negating any fuel savings by paying a fuel premium. Regardless hybrids are going to be a great transition vehicle over the next decade until battery technology really develops. We could do far worse, and I am pleased that Toyota has a vision, my hat is off to them and all of you that keep on thinking forward. Now does anybody have any good hop up tips to increase my Prius quarter mile speed? I hit 81 mph last year, any thoughts om how to bump that up to 90?
Posted by: GK Hubert | Apr 28, 2006 8:45:23 PM
all i know is that more automakers need to follow in toyotas footsteps. there are currently huge waiting lists for the prius and all other hybrid cars made by toyota, even the lexus 450h. realistically anyone can speculate on what they will make the new hybrid prius out of but realistically who cares, we will find out when it is actually produced. i am hoping that with the next generation prius there will be an option package to make it a plug in hybrid if it is already not a standard plug in hybrid. i definately do believe that hybrid technology will continue its advancement and be the standard for all cars in about ten years. im planning on purchasing a next generation toyota prius.
Posted by: alex | May 1, 2006 4:56:46 PM
No, DIESEL is "soooo yesterday." Having fun comparing a very low emission GASOLINE/ELECTRIC car vs your diesel pollutionmobile? Apples to oranges. Probably in imperial gallons as well. You lose.
Electric for the win.
Posted by: Dima | May 1, 2006 8:21:07 PM
No car I ever owned is better than my three cylinder Geo metro.
I made 52 MPG driving to portland against a headwind at 60 mph.
I just put my second motor in it and new transmission good for another 122,000 miles.
my old motor wasnt bad, but I just changed it for peace of mind.
cost: 2000 bucks
cant beat that.
one night in my garage, they are easy to fix by yourself too.
Posted by: smarty | Jun 19, 2006 12:37:47 AM
12,000 dollars will buy 4000 gallons of gas for me.
plus I would have to buy a prius, what do carsw sell for now? its so rediculous.
my metro brand new cost me 6500. that was 120,000 miles ago.
4000 gallons will take me 208,000 miles!
I only have 120,000 on it!
it is not worth going electric on a prius and spending 12,000 and 15000 dollars!
I can buy a used geo metro for 800 and put a new moter and transmission in for 2000 and have a better car for under 3 grand.
for a prius with electric conversion I can make 9 new driving geo metros.
when gas hits 6 bucks a gall I can go 100,000 miles on my geo for the 12,000 conversion.
get real, these new fangled cars are not worth it.
get a good oldy that runs well.
Posted by: smarty | Jun 19, 2006 12:46:25 AM
Facinating thread. I personally am doubtful the Prius (or any other gas car) can achieve real-world 150 mpg.
My 2005 50cc 4-stroke Honda scooter can do 150mpg (barely) and this is pushing the limits of power/weight/distance ratios.
Being in Canada, I can only dream of cars like the Audi A2 or Honda's new 50mpg Accord Wagon w/ 2.2 i-cdti diesel engine.
Any news on if these are coming to North America?
Posted by: marcus | Oct 25, 2006 6:41:00 AM
Going back for a moment to the issue of plugins, this is a complete non starter in most of Europe. In old cities everywhere, most people park in the street and do not have driveways/ garages. Where are they going to plug in their plug ins??? You can't trail power leads across the sidewalk/ pavement, even if you manage to park directly outside your own house. Certainly in the UK it's illegal and very hazardous for pedestrians.
Posted by: Isidore | May 2, 2007 12:42:09 AM
Parking meters with power outlets. It's done in Canada, for engine heaters.
Posted by: Nick G | May 5, 2007 10:31:28 PM
hi,
do you think i should wait to get a Prius til '08 or'09 ?
i want one now, but if they are really going to make all these improvements, wouldn't you wait ? are these rumors true ?
is the new car coming out in '08 or '09 ?
thanks,
Posted by: sbs | May 9, 2007 2:52:00 PM
Nick,
Since the 2008 intro is only +/- 4 months away, I'd wait, because it looks like 2008 will see some major improvements.
Posted by: Gary Loftis | May 26, 2007 7:51:49 PM
I am going to wait till the new ones come even though it is likely they will be very difficult to get a hold of. I figure the newer technology will boost the current freeway Prius mileage from 50 to 55 or 60. Still worth it for a vehicle of 24K or so. Also, they are suppose to reduce the added costs of 4200 to only 2200 or so for the hybrids.
Posted by: LpqB | May 28, 2007 1:38:51 PM
Hi "-)
Really happy to see an intelligent forum.. very encouraging..
I have a 300C, which, 29 city high 30's highway, and an engine that shuts down to 4 cyls, as needed... Im not doing too badly compared to some fuel efficient compact I saw test driving yesterday.. my car was actually getting better mileage!..But.. I would really like to experience the 45+ my inlaws are getting with their Prius. So.. test drove an 07.. and it made me car sick.. there was that engage, disengage, from electric to gasoline.. Ive never driven a hybrid before, and the sales person was quite friendly in explaining the "love boat effect".. "-) It did make me nauseated enough where someone else had to drive back.. but.. again.. I really would like to see some of this awesome gas pump passing technology! Question would be.. is there a way to make the ride smoother without the engage, disengage.. process.. and secondly, I do live in Denver, will it really make it over those mountains without being run over by the army of space shuttle sized SUV's we suffer from here? Will it keep up, make it over the divide.. etc.. As we did do an ascent up the beginning of I70 west bound, up into the mountains.. we noticed the battery indicator was draining rapidly before our eyes.. so I was just curious how that works.. if it has the energy for the haul, power.. etc.. Or if it runs out and you have another problem "-)
Thank you.. ventured to share and ask because this really is a nice forum.. and intelligence is to be found here! Good job!
Ok, have a good one!
:-)
Teresa
Denver, CO
PS.. The 16th St Mall bus rocks.. the kids and I take it all the time.. you can walk if you like, and you can ride if you get tired or need to.. its just neat.. And I do agree, public transpo really can be free.. if we stop allowing private corps to give their CEO's a few billion in bonuses alone, each year.. and maybe tax'd and rerouted it back into public funding of public transportation and transpo R&D.. We all pay taxes, so its not really "free".. but the cost is leveraged over an entire population, taking the personal financial hit out of it.. vs private car ownership, insurance and fuel expense.. at least, publicly, everyone has a choice, as a society.. which helps those who really cant afford.. or even drive a car..we all need to get around, and it would be great if the few making the most would think about the most that make the least "-)
Looking forward to ideas and comments.. very excited to join the fuel efficiency revolution.. which in fact, this really is!
:-)
Posted by: Teresa | Jun 21, 2007 3:34:20 PM
What many of the US posters fail to realise is that a Prius is a fairly large vehicle in Europe. The average vehicle is probably the size of the Geo Metro.
Virtually every vehicle in Europe beats 40mpg already and many of them are up there in the 50mpg range.
This is due to the much smaller average size and weight of vehicles as well as many of them being diesel.
In addition: if diesel engines cost so much more, then I find it hard to believe that the manufacturers would be charging no premium (or very little premium).
Also: most everybody I have talked to in Europe has never heard of the Prius or even hybrids so my guess is they won't take off there without a big marketing push.
Moreover: the other poster is right: Europe will need some infrastructure in order for plugins to be viable as many vehicles are simply parked in the street.
Posted by: Dan Browne | Jun 25, 2007 2:05:02 AM
I never stop being amaized at the responses. I swear the are people out ther that would question a free trip to Heaven! THe real truth is cars like diesel hybrids with great batteries will allow bidiesel, change the carbon and oil landscape, allow people to live further away from work if they want to without runined their economy or our enviroment. Detroit is dead, and the rest need to get a life.
Posted by: Don | Jul 12, 2007 4:47:23 PM
There are different types of pollution in a diesel and a gasoline engine...
But what people lose focus on is that no matter what type of engine there is a specific amount of pollution for every gallon of fuel burned... So a diesel has higher NoX concentrations...This problem is moot if technology doubles or triples the mileage... Because you reach a point where so little fuel is burned that the overall pollution is not a problem...And would meet the stringiest standards.
The Audi A2 is an example of this... The poster that said it gives 100+ miles to the gallon needs to understand that a european gallon is larger than an american gallon and that changes the mileage...In america there are 3.78 litres per gallon so a car that uses 2.99 litres of fuel per 100 Kilometres burns .079 gallons of fuel for 62 miles...That is not 100+ miles per gallon...More like 80 miles to the gallon...
Which is still awesome.
But the emissions from a car that gives 80+ miles to the gallon are going to be very limited...because it will burn half or one third the fuel compared to an average american car. With Clean low sulphur diesel and advanced catalytic filters to burn Nox emissions...The myth that diesels are dirty is a purely a myth.
Detroit and the US government does not want to see cars like the A2 reach american soil...a quiet refined bulletproof diesel that gives an honest to goodness 80 miles to the gallon in a roomy sedan that has power enough to be fun...That would become the number one selling car in america hands down... And it would kill revenues for the US government...Which other than income tax rely heavily on fuel taxes as a source of revenue
Cars like the A2...and affordable hybrids would mean a serious drop in overall consumption and thus a serious drop in demand...If demand falls the price of fuel falls...So if you sell say 1/3rd less fuel...and it costs approximately one third less due to drops in demand...The government is going to lose tens and hundreds of billions of dollars in fuel revenues...
So in america we are told that diesels are dirty, noisy smelly unrefined... too expensive
And the best fuel economy we see from a domestic car gives you 37 miles to the gallon 40 at the most... When a TDI version of the Aveo would give 60 miles to the gallon no problem at all...maybe even a little more.
But a cheap abundant car that gives 60 miles to the gallon is not something the US government and oil companies want to see made available...
I laugh because I read in the paper that Americans would never drive the european economy car...They are smaller with a little less power..And they give double the fuel mileage per gallon!!!
Newsflash folks...America has never truly been given the choice to drive the efficient fuel economy type cars... American cars are 40 years behind the times when it comes to fuel economy.
Posted by: Peter Ross | Jul 14, 2007 9:34:38 PM
About the Denver hybrid buses:
1) RTD the operator has NOT published MPG, nor g*CO2/mile
2) Battery and propulsion had been completely replaced more than once, at unspecified cost.
I highly suspect it has been a money sink, with no real world results to brag about.
I am curios about any fact suggesting otherwise
Posted by: colo | Apr 9, 2008 2:05:05 PM
As illustrated in this Knowledge Map , a number of individuals served in executive positions at both Microsoft and Yahoo in their careers. For example, Yahoo Director Mary Agnes Wilderotter was previously Microsoft's Senior Vice President of Business Strategy. Her years at Microsoft could have been very useful for Yang and Yahoo's board in evaluating a potential deal.
Posted by: mapquest | Sep 27, 2008 11:09:17 PM
I need a private community map placed within a website with the ability to search driving directions. Google API mapping allows for this and i need an experienced developer that can accommodate this within a week..... [ Read More]
Posted by: mapguest | Oct 8, 2008 9:11:27 AM
