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Per-Capita Car Ownership in China to Climb 67% by 2010

24 May 2006

The per-capita car ownership ratio in China will increase by 67% to 40 cars for every 1,000 citizens by 2010 from the current 24, according to a report by Chinanews. By contrast, the US has 765 vehicles per 1,000 (2002 data), while Europe (including the FSU countries) has an average of about 300 vehicles per 1,000. (UNECE).

China is already the third-largest car-consuming country in the world. The National Development and Reform Commission predicted that 55 million vehicles will be running on China’s roads by 2010, while the annual production rate will hit 9 million units a year.

“In the coming five years, we will improve the product line of the whole auto industry,” Li Gang, an official from the commission, said during a Sino-Germany forum on high-end technologies. “We hope, even given that increase, the oil consumption will increase by no more than 50 percent.”

“We also hope by 2010, domestic automakers will be able to sell 10 percent of their automobiles and 50 percent of their motorbikes to the international market,” Li added. “At that point, major Chinese producers of auto parts will become a part of the world's automotive production chain.” (Xinhua)

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It's the end of the world as you know it. Do you feel fine?

The countdown to someone blames Bush for this:

3

2

1

They hope they will increase oil consumption by no more than 50%. Thank God there's no such thing as peak oil or global warming for that matter.

LOL. 24 cars per thousand people. Those godless communist savages.

And now they want MORE?! What about my plans to put a fifth car in my driveway?! Where's MY American Dream gone?!

I think the Chinese people have just as much right to car ownership as do Americans and that some day they will achieve their goal. My hope is that by then,cars will run on battery power charged by renewable energy feed into the grid system by wind turbines. Americans are burning up 25% of the world's oil every day and it is time that we look for some other way to run our cars. For all I know, the Chinese might come up with an excellent battery car which they could place on the international market for us to purchase.

Right now, China is supplying Wal Mart with about 80% of its products. An extension into the high mpg and PHEV car market would be welcome since GM and Ford seem disinterested.

adrianakau@aol.com

Adrian:
Chinese EV cars? Its all in the battery.
Follow the battery:
Storage for 50kWh has to be cheap, less than $2000.

Quick survey:
Lead? > Dead
Foam Lead? > Just not here
LI+? > Here, but too expensive.
EESTOR(UltraCap)? > never be here (My personal guess is that it will fail testing because of long term material migration into dielectric caused by constant 3.5kv charge)
AL Battery? > No way

Therefore, for the foreseable future, No mass market EV cars can be sold.
Sorry

Paul H -

Pres. Bush is not responsible for the fact that China is an emerging economic power. As elsewhere, that goes hand in hand with sharp increases in transportation and fuel consumption. Besides, as consumers we welcome the lower prices of Chinese goods.

The above press release suggests the Chinese are hoping to achieve a 67% increase in vehicle ownership by 2010 with just a 50% increase in fuel consumption. Since the cars already on the road will not improve, this target actually implies that all those new cars would have to have 1-50/67 = 25% better fuel economy than the models sold in previous years!

If that seems high, consider that the Chinese government has direct control everything, including car loans. Apparently, ordinary citizens will simply not be given the option of purchasing a gas hog. That will be the privilege of tycoons and upper-tier apparatchiks, but those don't add up to large numbers.

Of course, China is the largest but far from the only rapidly emerging economy. The developed world, above all the US, relies on globalization for it future wealth. Unfettered consumption of fossil fuels not only increases the risk of military conflicts over those in short supply but also an increasing rate of climate change. It will not be possible nor desireable to sustain the American way of life in its present form indefinitely.

That is why US politicians should encourage a trend away from gas hogs and toward fuel-sipping smaller cars, diesels and hybrids. GM, Ford and DCX already sell appropriate models in Europe and elsewhere, they need only bring them to the US. The sticking point is that they could not possibly turn a profit making those under the current UAW labor contracts. 2007 will be a watershed year in the US auto industry - either way.

Also remember that before they've even rally started rolling out car ownership to the masses they've already enacted more severe fuel economy regulations than the most developed economy on Earth.

No I wouldn't *blame* Dubya for this, more like they've gone the economy route in *spite* of him.

Ruaraidh -

somwhow I doubt the Chinese base their energy policies on what GW does or does not say. More likely, the price of oil is just very high from their perspective. They clearly don't perceive oil as their birthright the way some (by no means all!) Americans appear to.

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Students in public higher institutions of learning have expressed discontent over the new student’ s loan scheme yet to commence.

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