|World energy use by fuel type. Click to enlarge.|
Worldwide total energy consumption will grow by 71% between 2003 and 2030, according to the reference case projection from the International Energy Outlook 2006 (IEO2006) released today by the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
The projected reference case world oil prices are 35% higher in 2025 than in last year’s IEO, and higher prices dampen expected growth in world oil demand, which is 8 million barrels per day lower in 2025 than in last year’s reference case. Nevertheless, the IEO projects petroleum consumption to grow strongly, reaching 118 million barrels per day in 2030—an increase of 47% from 2003. The United States, China, and India together account for 51% of the projected growth in world oil use.
Although oil’s share of total energy use is projected to fall from 38% in 2003 to 33% in 2030, it still retains the largest single share of the global energy market.
The reference case projects petroleum consumption in the US to increase 37.3% from 2003, climbing from 24.3 million barrels per day (mbpd) to 33.4 mbpd. The EIA forecasts China’s consumption growth at a brisk 3.8% per year, jumping up 168% from 5.6 mbpd in 2003 to 15.0 mbpd by 2030. Indian consumption is seen growing 2.4% per year, accounting for a 96% increase from 2.3 mbpd in 2003 to 4.5 mbpd in 2030.
Much of the world’s incremental oil demand is projected for use in the transportation sector, where there are few competitive alternatives to petroleum; however, several of the technologies associated with unconventional liquids (gas-to-liquids, coal-to-liquids, and ethanol and biodiesel produced from energy crops) are expected to meet a growing share of demand for petroleum liquids during the projection period.
Of the projected increase in oil use in the reference case over the 2003 to 2030 period, one-half occurs in the transportation sector. The industrial sector accounts for a 39-percent share of the projected increase in world oil consumption, mostly for chemical and petrochemical processes.
To meet the higher demand (38 mbpd increase in consumption plus additional production to offset field depletion), the EIA projects that members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will increase their oil production by 53.6% from 33 mbpd in 2003 to 50.7 mbpd in 2030.
The agency also assumes that non-OPEC oil production—spurred by high prices—will increase by 47.3%, increasing from 49.3 mbpd in 2003 to 72.6 mbpd in 2030.
World unconventional production (including oil sands, bitumen, biofuels, coal-to-liquids, and gas-to-liquids) increases by 9.7 million barrels per day between 2003 and 2030, representing 25% of the total world liquids supply increase.
In the IEO2006 reference case, which does not include specific policies to limit greenhouse gas emissions, total energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise from 25.0 billion metric tons in 2003 to 33.7 billion metric tons in 2015 and 43.7 billion metric tons in 2030.
Much of the projected increase in emissions is expected to occur in the non-OECD regions of the world, accompanying large increases fossil fuel use. Non-OECD countries accounts for three-fourths of the projected growth in emissions between 2003 and 2030.