This is great discussion but on confounding issues. Let me take a stab at a couple.

1. Taxes do not cause inflation. It is merely a transfer of funds. Money supply changes could impact inflation, and will, when foreign dollars stop flowing into the US. So, while the price of oil will go up with peaking, it will go up more in the US due to the relative value of the dollar. Behavior will change with or without the taxes.
2. We have always used taxes to affect behavior -- earned income tax credits, special lower rates for capital gains, investment tax credits. You are dreaming if you think we don't. Besides, that is the tool Government has to achieve it's essential purpose, which by the way, is not the same as the purpose of corporations.
3. A carbon tax may be regressive, but so is a high oil price. So what is the difference?
4. While I would support a tax to sustain high gas prices, or a carbon tax, extreme swings in gas prices will force auto companies to introduce high-efficiency vehicles if nothing more than as a hedge against yo-yo sales. Then people will make choices, and if equivalent vehicles are available with better gas mileage -- people will buy them -- not all people, but enough.
5. Wild swings in gas prices will still encourage technological development, which will result in lower prices for fuel efficient vehicles, if the governemnt does not regulate them out of existence.

The issues of Peak Oil and Global Warming are intertwined, but not identical, and need to be addressed as such.

Rings true for me. Since many of the solutions for peak oil also reduce GHG, peak oil might just save us from global warming. Lets just hope that the cure isn't worse than the disease.

Rafael:
Yes, I agree, political extremities from both sides are just sickening. But at least neither side could win decisive majority among people. Sadly, not the case in Europe, or at least it seems this way from this side of the pond (probably people does not care what their politicians-activists are doing? Except for referendum for European Constitution…). Looks like concepts that thief is entitled to steal (UN), barbarian have a right to ravage (Africa), terrorist is a freedom fighter (Palestine), slavery is untouchable national tradition (women in Islam), nobody have a right to defend themselves (S. Africa, Israel), and it is better to be a victim, not a victor (everywhere) become a core values of European politics. Personally I add to this list end-of-the-world hysteria for global warming and peak oil. This is the main reason why I am against all drastic and potentially disruptive measures widely discussed on this forum.

Oil prices will come down. I'm in the industry and I can tell you we practically invented the phrase boom and bust. Americans are addicted to oil because it has always been and remains dirt cheap. We and the Europeans basically stole the oil from the middle east for 50 years now they are starting to wise up. We'll see oil under $50 bbl in a couple years maybe under $40. A couple hundred thousand hybrids is exponentially better than the failed electric experiment by GM in the nineties. Though fuel is less of our GDP than it was 30 years ago, I'm investing in alternative to help pave the path forward.

You want to waste your time in a monumental fashion? Argue with a tone-deaf libertarian.

While a 20% gain in hybrid sales sounds impressive, let us not pat ourselves on the back for hybrid segment sales of 1.54% is only a blip above zero.

What's the difference in sin between emitting carbon dioxide, smoking cigarettes, drinking alcohol? There should be a tax on all of the above, they all claim the lives of others/future generations.

"I'm in the industry and I can tell you we practically invented the phrase boom and bust." - inventing phrases does not validate your prophecy - in 1775 Patrick Henry said "give me liberty or give me death", in 1799 he died.

Wow what a half backed retort.
Please compare 1.5% 250,000 units to previous electric units.
Also observe the number of car makers coming out with new hybrids. Already 10% of Camry's sales are hybrids and that is only 2 months after the launch. I think Bank of america is throwing an extra $3,000 to employees and more are sure to follow.
Also please actually do some checking, look and see what happened every time there was a huge spike in the price of oil.
We all die sonny so will your turbo-lib dream of higher gas taxes.

I am really excited about hybrid sales. The market forces are at work by selecting the better of the models available. It seems to me the only thing holding back larger growth is availability of the more sucessful ones. If GM would jump on board they could lead the way but since they won't they will be headed for Ford's future. Bankrupcy.

"Also please actually do some checking, look and see what happened every time there was a huge spike in the price of oil."

In clever hindsight you can call something a spike, in your long-term ignorance you can't see a trend..

dipstick co2 tool,
I told you I'm in the industry. Are you? I've seen this for 25years.
And yes there is a trend and it is up, here's the real problem if the price goes down significantly before the alternatives really sink root then the next time it spikes it'll make 3 gallon look like a picnic and you can bank on that junior.

Richard, Robert Rapier is also in the industry, and his analyses carry a lot more weight than your unsupported word.

hey here's what i still never got from all this discussion, gas taxes, carbon taxes, etc. rafael, why are you against hybrids becoming cheaper? what's the point? as cervus points out, don't forget the poor. the reason i say this is that the poor are the ones driving the 20-year-old clunkers on the freeway, with emissions and fuel economy going through the roof! slap on a tax on them, and they'll just buy shittier and cheaper cars, that's the only thing it will do. these people want to LIVE, they aren't going to stop driving just because of some lame tax.

seriously, the thing we need is for hybrids to cost the SAME or CHEAPER than current, gasoline-only variants. only then will we see an increase. what also needs to happen is Toyota needs to RAMP UP production capacity and FULLY PHASE OUT non-hybrid models. i.e. imagine if the camry was available ONLY as a hybrid. THESE solutions will globally solve the problem of emissions and fuel consumption, not some whizzo taxes.

cheers.

p.s. Mike, in the future, can you include the GS 450h sales as a percentage of the entire GS line, i.e. in the text writeup as well as the charts? Thanks!

Sorry about that. GS450h sales for June = 55% of total GS 430/450h sales (420).

lol Mike, I also meant the GS 300, i.e. all the GS models. thanks though.

Throwing my hat into the gas tax arena:

A HUGE amount of revenue can be generated by even a small increas in the federal gas tax. The current gas tax is 18.3 cents/gallon. If it were to double, that would generate approximately 20 billion more dollars in taxes. I'm sorry that I can't back up that value right now, but I did the calculations a few months ago based on total gallons used in the ground transportation sector.

Anyway, that tax increase would be enought to slowly impact driving habits, but at the same time not wallop the lower class. Keep in mind not everyone can go out and replace their car. I see a lot of people driving 10-15 year old vehicles. I'm sure every one of them woulde LOVE to go out and buy a nice shiny new hybrid, but there unfortunatly are an awful lot of poor people in this nation that can ill afford to spend an extra dollar or more per gallon.

Now what to do with that 20 billion? Keep in mind that in 2006 dollars, the Apollo Project cost a bit over $10 billion dollars per year, peaking at approximately 20 billion during it's most expensive year. We would be able to use the same equivalent amount of money to start a new Apollo Project based on energy efficiency across the entire breadth of the energy sector, not just transportation.

This would have a tremendous impact on not only the environment, but would reduce energy costs across the entire US economy, making business more efficient, reduce their operating expenses, and increase competitavness. It would decrease, if not eliminate our dependence on foriegn oil, allowing us to extricate ourselves from some pretty nasty places in the world. It would create energy tecnologies that we would be able to sell to the developing world, both generating trade and having a positive effect on the worldwide environment.

Instituting a program like that would be the best "middle ground" between the do nothings and the extreme taxers.

Peace,
Cosmo

I would have expected a more significant jump in June hybrid sales as price of crude is still around $75.

I think we should all buy SUV's and remove every last drop of oil to really get people moving on biking, hybrids and thinking about the environment. If we run out of oil we have to find alternatives. Might as well start pretending there is no oil left now because there definately isn't going to be in 100 years with China entering into the automotive market....

Mark