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China Targeting Growing Biofuels 12x by 2020; 15% of Transportation Fuels

Chinabfuels
China is planning on a surge in biofuels, especially biodiesel. Click to enlarge.

China, already the world’s third largest ethanol producer, is planning on a dramatic expansion of its production and use of biofuels for transportation from about 1 million tonnes of ethanol and biodiesel in 2005 to 12 million tonnes in 2020. Twelve million tonnes of biofuels would represent about 15% of the transportation fuel pool in 2020.

In China, diesel consumption is twice that of gasoline. Therefore, of that 12 million tonnes of biofuels, China wants biodiesel to represent 8 million (about 2.4 billion gallons US), according to a recent report by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service. With biodiesel production in 2005 at only 100,000 to 200,000 tonnes (30 million to 60 million gallons) that represents at least 3,900% growth in 15 years.

Chinabfuels2
Chinese consumption of diesel and gasoline. Click to enlarge.

In 2005, China produced 920,000 tonnes of ethanol, 80% of that from corn. This year, corn is expected to provide 90% of the feedstock. Industrial consumption of corn in China represents 20% of the total corn demand, and of that, ethanol production accounts for 40%. The expansion of ethanol production to 4 million tonnes by 2020 would force China to become an importer of corn, absent a role for other feedstocks or production processes, according to the report.

The USDA report notes that sugarcane, sugar beets and wheat are unlikely feedstocks for the Chinese ethanol industry, although sorghum and cassava have potential. The ethanol industry will look long-term to cellulosic ethanol.

Generally, cellulosic ethanol is not commercial viable, but China will test this with the first cellulosic ethanol production plant up and running by 2008. [Earlier post.] When viable, in China, most production plants will retrofit current ethanol production plants for lignocellulose production.

Although the potential demand for biodiesel in China is enormous—as is reflected in the goal for 2020—China’s primary difficult it the lack of eligible feedstocks.

China is a net importer in all the major edible vegetable oils, the largest importer in the world. Coupled with the lack of fatty organic matter, the lack of land upon which new crops could grow exacerbates the difficulty of biodiesel production.

...Biodiesel’s future in China relies on three key factors:

  1. Government support and NDRC defining a clear plan for expansion, not only for biodiesel production, but also for the harvesting of NGB crops.

  2. Research and development to solidify technologies for production.

  3. Defining and obtaining key organic sources for production. Potentials inputs include rapeseed, Jatropha nuts, switchgrass, sunflower seeds, Chinese pistachio, peanuts, sesame seeds, Barbados nuts, Fufang vines, Yousha bean, and Chinese dogwood nuts.

Rapeseed, the report notes, is a promising oilseed for biodiesel and is a potential source of biodiesel production for China. If rapeseed were planted during the off-season in the more than 29 million hectares left fallow in the central region of China (in the regions surrounding the Yangtze River, the Yellow River, and the Huai River) the harvest could produce more than 18.5 million MT of biodiesel.

China is also exploring Jatropha and Chinese pistachios, other oil plants, for potential biodiesel sources.

Biofuel development will impact on food self-sufficiency and food security, which has slowed the Chinese government’s development of the biofuel sector...If ethanol production remains as profitable as it is at present, the cultivation of crops for ethanol could displace food crops, reducing food production.

...If biofuel production and consumption continues in China, China may soon see a change in its trade balance. Already there has been a change in trade trends in biofuel feedstock such as corn, wheat, sugar, and cassava. China’s corn exports will begin to diminish, and various industry sources predict that China will become a net corn importer by 2008.

Resources:

Comments

christopher nichols

If we would remember Hemp is a viable alternative to all these seeds, we would see that is the best answer.

sjc

China is buying lots of gasification for coal and perhaps biomass in the future. It would be good if both India and China could become more CO2 neutral with biomass gasification.

allen Z

My 2 cents:
Algae oil/biomass production supplemented with scrubbed combustion powerplant CO2 exhaust. Car pool/mass transit/rail-barge expansion. Many rivers in the PRC used to have medium and large river freighters. They have slowly disappeared in the last 25 years. Some of it was due to extensive overusage of riverwater, while in other cases trucks became cheaper/more prevalent.

sjc sick

to sjc:
and thats why we will use sooner or later hydrogen :)

then we don't depend only on biomass but also nuclear, wind, thermal sun energy, fotovoltaics or natural gas

its like globalization,
we distribute the risk on multiple sources ...

i know why peakoilers and technofix pessimists are so extremely against hydrogen, because they simply elminate every problem with energy forever

barry hanson

The numbers from the article indicate that the biodiesel production would be 78 gallons of bio-diesel per acre of land. At five tons of biomass per acre a minimum of 375 gallons of, say, butanol could be produced at a lower production cost per gallon. Why would one want to produce bio-diesel?

allen_Z

barry hanson,
The 78 gallons per acre you site are from conventional crop yields including soy or rapeseed. They have yields up to 115 gallons an acre. Palm oil, possibly grown in subtropical/tropical PRC, will yield 600+ gallons an acre. Algae oil/biomass operations can yield 5,000 gallons an acre. This can increased to over 10,000 gallons an acre, possibly to 20,000+ ga/acre. Supplementation of CO2 and plenty of sun year round will help it along.
_
___As for ethanol/butanol from plants, BTL could do this. Another source could be sweet sorghum. It stands up to hot, dry environments better than many other crops. It uses less water (vs corn and sugar beet), higher energy balance (3-6+) and yields be gallons per acre (400-600 ga ethanol/acre, with 900 ga/acre possible). Butanol could have similar/better BTU yields. The main problem is yield per ton (not acre) of raw stalks. It is worse corn or sugar beet in this respect. Either local/mobile fermenters/processors will be needed to keep the haul distance to the them as low as possible, or farmers need to ahve some sort of crusher/juicer/extracter to get the sweet liquid to be fermented.

Lucas


Many highly intelligent people who have taken a very careful look at the problems are - of the opinion - that Hydrogen will not likely, ever become a suitable fuel for automotive transportation.

The reasons are many and varied. Before swallowing whole all the BS put out by those with an axe to grind, I wouuld suggest that one take a long careful look at all of the problems involved.

If you have solutions for them, I suspect you will shortly become a very rich man.

allen_Z

That way, the leftover straw/material could be used as forage/soil erosion inhibitor-carbon enrichment cover. The freight cost (transport from farm to processor) will also be lower.
_
___Algae oil/biomass would also benefit from waste heat from power plants to dry the algae oil before processing.
_Here are some links:
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2006/08/greenfuel_techn.html
http://www.hort.purdue.edu/newcrop/proceedings1993/v2-394.html#Field%20Production
http://www.itsgood4.us/ethanol.htm
http://www.agriculture.com/ag/story.jhtml?storyid=/templatedata/ag/story/data/agNews_050524crRENEWABLESgj.xml&catref=ag1001
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algaculture#Biomass
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biodiesel#Biodiesel_feedstock

eric

>Many highly intelligent people who have taken a very
>careful look at the problems are - of the opinion - that
>Hydrogen will not likely, ever become a suitable fuel for
>automotive transportation.

This is the conclusion I have reached. It amounts to a last-gasp technical attempt at a fix to maintain the status quo. There may be niche markets here and there where hydrogen makes sense, but not for basic transportation for the masses.

People seem to at least be somewhat more optimistic about all-electric cars, or at least plug-in hybrids as a transitional vehicle. At least there one can kind of see a transition path to fully renewable energy.

Lucas

eric - I have done a lot of study, in an attempt to make up my mind about pure electric cars. I just can't seem to accumulate enough information that decides the case one way or the other.

I remain on the fence for now.

I do have a serious bias. I remain convinced that a small turbo-charged biodiesel engine driving a generator, only when needed to recharge the battery, is currently the way to go. You would use PHEV but not be limited to a few miles.

The use of modern materials and techniques to make a very light vehicle and AWD by computer controlled, (external rotor) electric motors would complete the package.

It can be done today. It should have been done thirty years ago.

Dave

Lucas,

I agree fully. But I also agree that putting all eggs in one basket (ie supporting only one alternative) is a mistake...look at us now.

sjc

I like SNG as a biofuel. You can make more than 100 therms per ton of biomass and deliver it by NG pipelines. You can use it for buildings, homes, industry and cars. Seems like a very multiuse fuel with good conversion efficiency, CO2 neutral and clean.

eric

Regarding biodiesel, I have to confess that I use it myself on a daily basis. The problem with it that I see is one of scalability (and these questions apply to all biofuels). How do you get enough of the stuff to replace the fuel we currently use today? You run into problems with crop yields, insufficient number of acres of arable land, need to use chemical fertilizers (made from natural gas these days) to maintain high crop yields, and the food vs. fuel debate. And I haven't mentioned problems involving aquifers depletion, topsoil depletion, and the desertification that arises from attempts to till poor quality soils. Given these sorts of problems, I just don't see biofuels being any kind of a long-term solution. The limits appear to be fairly fundamental, and the numbers suggest that this is a dead end as a long term solution.

Electric certainly isn't a slam dunk, at least for cars (electrified rail is clearly easier - for that case it should be pretty easy to convince people that there are no technical hurdles at all - just a matter of taking the trouble to actually do it).

The thing with electric cars is that you don't run into the scalability problems. We could generate sufficient electricity from renewable sources to do the job, should we wish to go down that road. The problem is always one of storage, speed and range. These problems might or might not get solved - if they aren't, then what we will be left with is gasoline that is so expensive that a regular gas car is no longer practical. Were this to happen, people would face stark choices - people will can use an electric car with more limited range, ride a bicycle, or take mass transit.

sjc

Biomass gasification can make NH3 for nitrogen fertilizer. You just use the NG out of the pipe like always and replace as much using SNG as you can over time. 50 million acres are planted in switchgrass in the US to preserve soil. That could generate more than 30 billion therms of SNG...and that is just prairie grass. You have corn stalks, rice straw, wheat straw, other ag wastes and forest product waste. There is an estimated 1.3 billion tons of biomass that can be used each year in the US. At 100 gallons equivalent per ton, that is one heck of a lot of fuel.

Roy

Very interesting discussion.

I'm in the camp that says the hydrogen economy just won't happen. I'm not a chemist or thermodynamics expert, but my take is its just an energy carrier and it takes too much energy to get it into a usable state for automotive use. A fuel cell is really cool, and they'll be economically viable sometime, but not the H2.

Battery electric in the long run, HEVs in the short run. Of course, Mr. Fusion was a sweet engine in "Back to the Future."

Somebody mentioned electric rail - hey, that's just a series HEV - diesel genset and electric traction. And boy, are they smooth! Lucas has good ideas.

Eric, you mentioned storage, speed, and range as three problems. Really, there's only one: storage. Speed isn't a problem - today's electric traction motors are good up to autobahn speeds. Range is the same as storage. (It just occured to me that maybe you mean speed of recharge - if so, I agree, but lump that in with storage).

Unfortunately, storage is a darned tough problem.

Bio-fuels are key to save us from each other when the fossil-fuels run out.

Cheers.

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