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China’s Auto Production and Sales Up 25% CYTD

9 September 2006

Xinhua. China’s automobile production and sales both shot up 25% in the first eight months of the year, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said Friday.

Production rose to 4.64 million vehicles between January and August (up 25.37%), while sales increased to 4.53 million units (up 24.58%). By comparison, sales of new light-duty vehicles in the US were 11.4 million units for the first eight months of 2006, down 4.3% from the same period in 2005.

The strong growth in China is mainly driven by dynamic growth in the passenger vehicle market, particularly sedans, the association said. In the first eight months of the year, China produced 3.33 million passenger vehicles and sold 3.23 million units, rising 33 percent and 32 percent, respectively.

The production and sale of sedans grew more than 40%.

The top 10 manufacturers sold a total of 3.8 million units, accounting for 83.83% of the market share. The top 10 are: SAIC, FAW, the Dongfeng Motor Corp, Chang’an, Beijing Automotive Industry Corp, Chery, Harbin Aircraft, the Guangzhou Automotive Industry Corp, Geely and Brilliance.

September 9, 2006 in China, Sales | Permalink | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)

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Comments

As the marines in Halo would say: "Yikes!!"

Before people get all excited about new discoveries in the gulf of mexico, they need to consider the increase in world demand that these kind of developments portent. It will only get worse as China marches head on into the 20th century. Or should we assume that all those nice oil companies will restrict GOM production to U.S. consumption.

t:

Oil is a commodity. The oil companies will sell their wares to optimize profit on the open market. The Chinese will compete with the US in that market.

I believe I heard that the new GOM find is quite high sulphur. It is compatible with the US refinery base?

Bill, I would say it is compatible. The US has both ample heavy-crude refining capacity and a large portion of our refining base has been upgraded to process these heavier crudes over the past few years.

Even so, oil is fungible; it doesn't really matter if the oil is sold to the Chinese, the US, or anyone else as long as the net supply of oil is enough to meet the net demand for oil.

Personally, I feel that there will be a significant slowdown in world oil demand growth even with a strong world economy; we will probably decelerate over the next decade and eventually go in to decline in the 2016-2030 period as petroleum reserves are exhausted and next-generation alternatives gain market share. Also, the environmental pressures of fossil fuel consumption is getting clearer with each passing year, so it is very likely that demand-side legislation will put further pressure on oil demand over the next few decades. Oil production will likely peak after oil demand.

I looked at an article from the late 90's. Like 1999. They were saying by the year 2005 China might represent a market of 1 million vehicles. In 2005 they sold about 5 million vehicles including non-light vehicles.

I don't see why China can't grow at 25% as an average for the next 5 years. The estimates right now have them only growing maybe 4% a year. At 25% they can double every three years. So 10 million in 2010.

10 million units in 2010 would still put them at only 25% of the US new car per capita sales. And China needs to infill whereas Americans can purchase used cars. So many more Chinese will need new cars. I can see now they just need to keep doing what they are doing, and they should be able to get to 20 million units in 2015.

We can take some solace that since April 2005, the Chinese are buying vehicles with higher emission standards for light-duty, heavy-duty vehicles and motorcycles and mopeds, than we have in the US

Car sales up 25+% in China and down almost as much in USA. Something is changing very fast. Where will those two super powers be in 10 years. Do the maths....

Harvey,
Don't just look at car sales, look at the bloated trade surpluses and deficits - the US is a super borrower, China and Saudi are super bankers. Hope we don't have to wait another 10 years to understand the consequences.

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