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India to Mandate E10

9 November 2006

Financial Express. India plans to introduce the mandatory blending of 10% ethanol (E10) into gasoline across the entire country from June 2007, according to Shri M. S. Srinivasan, Secretary of the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas.

The use of 5% ethanol blends, currently in three Indian states, will spread to the rest of the country by 15 Nov. India will need 1.12 billion liters (296 million gallons US) of ethanol per year for the move to E10.

“We expect substantial availability of ethanol for 10 per cent blending as new capacities are being created and we are expecting a bumper crop of sugarcane,” [Srinivasan] said.

Agriculture Minister, Sharad Pawar, said on Wednesday that sugar production in the cane crushing season that began in October was likely to reach 22.7 million tonnes, up from 19 million tonnes in the year ago period.

India also plans to replace around 5% of its current 40 million tonnes of annual diesel consumption with jatropha biodiesel within about five years, as it tries to limit oil imports that account for 70 per cent of its needs.

November 9, 2006 in Ethanol, India, Policy | Permalink | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0)

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E10 is all the US should do nationally with ethanol, forget the E85 corn contituency, it's never going to offset more than 10% of petrol regardless.

It could do more than 10% replacement of gasoline w/other biofuel crops.

I have to wonder about the capacity of India to generate that much ethanol. Do they have that kind of production/capacity? Given the land mass to population densities and the productivity levels of farm output it seems to me that cellulose based ethanol is their only hope. I have to wonder if this commitment to E10 will be matched with a push on cellulosic ethanol production. Without this I can't see how India can hope to achieve the ethanol volume they desire.

India is the largest producer of sugar. in fact, India invented sugar. Was the
only supplier to the world. Until, Britain shipped Indians to South Africa and
West Indies as slave labor to work on the Sugar plantation.

296 million gallons/year is under 20 kb/d (thousand barrels/day). Total Indian oil demand is about 2.7 million b/d, of which gasoline is only about 10%. Brazil and the US (forget exact numbers) produce I think about 200+ kb/d and 400+ kb/d respectively. This volume for India is tiny, easily doable, especially for a country where the population remains heavily rural but is struggling to find economically viable ways to put the land to good use - as with ethanol for US corn farmers, biofuels could be a great alternative for your average rural Indians. Definitely count biodiesel in that as well (diesel and kerosene account for about 800 kb/d and 200 kb/d of Indian demand respectively).

Also keep in mind that Indian oil demand growth is not nearly as voracious as the impression many have and therefore biofuels can make a comparatively higher impact to their total fuel mix right now on a percentage basis. For all the hype about India rising like China: it is economically growing much slower, stifled in part by overwhelming bureaucracy and inadequate infrastructure. The combination of slower economic growth and poorer transportation infrastructure means that oil demand growth (and oil gdp elasticity) is substantially lower than China. China has entered an S-curve growth period that (while it has many unique aspects) is not dissimilar to what Japan and Korea did in earlier decades. India just ain't there yet and is starting from a much lower base. Whereas currently has annual oil demand of about 7 million b/d growing at around 500 kb/d per year (with major fluctuations by year), India is only 2.7 million and growing 100 kb/d per year when it's having a good year (monsoon rains and how good the crop is each year has a bigger impact than a lot of the structural transportation or power generation fuel growth).

Much of the crude oil/distillates that goes to India ends up as/are diesel, kerosene, or heavy fuel oil. Diesel and kerosene end up as lighting and engine fuel. Heavy fuel oil ends up running electric generation. They do have the potential of OTEC (via solar/waste heat) to replace some of their electric needs, as well as freshwater, minerals, and cold seawater based AC benefits.

...replace coal/oil in some of their electric needs...

Ater Diesel, Gasolene (Petrol) is the next major fuel with nearly million cars and 6 million 2-wheelers being sold every year. However the diesel car usage is increasing and now they are pursuing E10 to begin with.

I dont know how much Ethanol can be produced with a smaller land area and a billion people. But even 5 % contribution from Bio-fuels should be good.

Long term is plugin hybrid.

When I was in India a few years ago a taxi driver told me that it's common to extend gasoline with kerosene, since it's cheaper. The downside is that it significantly lowers the octane rating of the fuel (taxi driver complained when the engine started knocking when going uphill :) ), and as a consequence cars for the Indian market have much lower compression ratios than in developed countries.

So just by getting tighter fuel standards (or perhaps enforcing current standards is the problem, as it often is in less developed countries), they could increase the compression ratio and thus the fuel efficiency of the fleet.

As for the general biofuels thing, I have feeling they'd get better environmental benefits per dollar by improving the electrical grid, including modernizing power stations with emissions control and perhaps use their biofuel production in power generation instead. That way they could replace (part of) diesel gensets that are currently used.

Do you consider fuel efficiency factor (negative 3-4%) while cost E10 gasoline?

Does India consider fuel efficiency factor (negative 3-4%) for E-10 cost estimates?

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