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CO2 Emissions Will Reduce Density of Earth’s Outermost Atmosphere by 2017

12 December 2006

Carbon dioxide emissions from the burning of fossil fuels will produce a 3% reduction in the density of Earth’s outermost atmosphere by 2017, according to a team of scientists from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Pennsylvania State University (PSU).

The research appears in the latest issue of the journal Geophysical Research Letters, and was presented at the American Geophysical Union conference in San Francisco, Calif.

We’re seeing climate change manifest itself in the upper as well as lower atmosphere. This shows the far-ranging impacts of greenhouse gas emissions.

—Stan Solomon, co-author

Recent observations by scientists tracking satellite orbits have shown that the thermosphere, which begins about 60 miles above Earth and extends up to 400 miles, is beginning to become less dense, said Robert Kerr, program director in the National Science Foundation’s (NSF) Division of Atmospheric Sciences.

This confirms a prediction made in 1989 by Roble and Bob Dickinson at NCAR that the thermosphere will cool and contract because of increasing carbon dioxide levels. The new study is the first to analyze whether the observed change will become more pronounced over the next decade.

At heights of more than 60 miles, one of the main elements of the atmosphere is atomic oxygen, a single atom of oxygen. As carbon dioxide increases near Earth’s surface, it gradually diffuses upward and absorbs heat through collisions with atomic oxygen. It then radiates the heat away to space through infrared radiation, and the result is a net cooling of the upper atmosphere. As the molecules cool and settle, the thermosphere loses density.

Also affecting the thermosphere is the 11-year cycle of solar activity. During the active phase of the cycle, ultraviolet light and energetic particles from the sun increase, producing a warming and expansion of the upper atmosphere. When solar activity wanes, the thermosphere settles and cools.

The NCAR-PSU team used a computer model of the upper atmosphere that incorporates the solar cycle as well as the gradual increase of carbon dioxide due to human activities. The team also used a prediction for the next solar cycle, issued by NCAR scientist Mausumi Dikpati and colleagues, that calls for a stronger-than-usual solar cycle over the next decade. The model showed a decrease in thermospheric density from 1970 to 2000 of 1.7% per decade, or about 5% overall, which agrees with observations. The team found that the decrease was about three to four times more rapid during solar minimum than solar maximum.

Lower density in the thermosphere, which is the highest layer of the atmosphere, would reduce the drag on satellites in low Earth orbit, allowing them to stay airborne longer. Forecasts of upper-level air density could help NASA and other agencies plan the fuel needs and timing of satellite launches more precisely, potentially saving millions of dollars.

December 12, 2006 in Climate Change | Permalink | Comments (12) | TrackBack (0)

Comments

One way to think of the greenhouse effect is that the earth radiates into space from its upper atmosphere. The lower atmosphere is opaque to infra-red radiation. What happens as CO2 builds up is the level at which the radiation occurs gets higher and therefore cooler. Thus ironically the earth "looks cooler" as seen from space. That means it is radiating less energy, which causes the surface to actually get warmer.

Posted by: Hal | December 12, 2006 at 03:01 PM

Will this mean we will need to boost the orbit of the ISS less often? Other NEO satillites may also benefit. Micro and small meteors might reach lower into the atmosphere, resulting in better visibility, especially meteor showers. Larger ones that explode in the upper atmosphere, with the force of small nukes (average one 20Kt event/year), may also vaporise closer to the surface-a scary proposition.

Posted by: allen_Z | December 12, 2006 at 03:21 PM

Allen -

by all means, let's fry the earth for the sake of the white elephant that is the ISS.

As for meteor showers, if your number of one 20kt event per year is correct, it obviously doesn't cause any significant damage on the ground or we'd be hearing about them all the time. Some cores of small iron-based meteorites do hit the surface every year, mostly of course in uninhabited areas incl. the open ocean.

Much bigger events such as the one at Tunguska, Russia in 1908 can and do cause massive damage but mercifully, they are extremely rare. There is no clear-cut scientific consensus, but a popular conjecture is that this event was caused by the mid-air explosion of a large incoming ball of ice (i.e. a comet). Reducing the density of the outermost layers of the atmosphere will not increase the probability of such a large event, nor significantly affect its severity.

Posted by: Rafael Seidl | December 13, 2006 at 06:34 AM

Rafael:

"by all means, let's fry the earth for the sake of the white elephant that is the ISS."

Of course you realize that Allen Z is not advocating climate change for the purpose of the space station.

As for "frying the earth", an average increase of 1 C over a century is not frying. Hyperbole like this only causes skeptics like myself to role our eyes and want to discount otherwise plausible arguments

Sardonics are beneath you, my good man.

Posted by: tthoms | December 13, 2006 at 08:47 AM

It might also mean space junk, esp. in LEO, will take longer to de-orbit.

Posted by: allen_Z | December 13, 2006 at 03:24 PM

What evidence do they have that this is caused by CO2 emissions, and is not some long natural cyle in the earths long, life cycle? At best, these measurements and observations have been taken in earnest in only the past 25-50 years. Much as the melting of the polar ice, perhaps we are in the midst of one of the earths long natural cycles which has nothing to do with us. Our spaceship earth is one fluid, morphing body floating around in the vacuum of space. I remain unconvinced of our entire fault in any perceived changes being noticed, especially coming from the last 100-150 years in the earths long history.

But I do think changes are needed. Less pollution and waste, and greener transportation like electric and perhaps even human power. The building blocks are starting to emerge. If everyone would take care of their own space on this spaceship earth, and help their neighbors with theirs, the earth will become better, and will eventually heal itself.

Posted by: Mark A | December 14, 2006 at 05:40 AM

Those are some cool cars!

Posted by: Shannon | December 15, 2006 at 05:30 AM

Mark,
There's nothing wrong about being skeptical.
We all are - in some measure.

If skepticism comes from the fact that someone is not reading the literature, as it is plainly evident, then we have a tiny small problem because whoever does that is only interested in throwing his/her own skepticism around, and nothing else.

In a well publicized review article published in a top science journal of 928 peer reviewed articles published in science peer reviewed journals everywhere around the world, all the researchers agreed that global warming is happening. Not a single dissented. Note the words 'peer reviewed'.

Skepticism by itself is completely useless.
Skepticism withour data, peer reviewed data, that's even more useless.


Posted by: tt | December 16, 2006 at 07:17 PM

Look at reducing fossil fuel usage as good for the environment, security and pocketbook. All the other benefits are great. So if global warming is not caused by CO2 and fossil fuel usage, so what. Reducing fossil fuel usage is its own reward, it is just the right thing to do, no matter what. That is called a winning strategy.

Posted by: SJC | December 17, 2006 at 01:16 PM

More nonsense from the Cassandra's of global warming.

How about building some more SOLAR Energy Plants? Yes let absorb some more incident radiation and alter the ALBEDO. We really need to alter the ALBEDO and really hold all the absorbed heat in!

Liberal know-nothings will suck it up... Hey Amory L, heres some more suckers for your Pablum!

Posted by: Stan Peterson | December 22, 2006 at 04:45 PM

This is bull stuff.

Posted by: Heaven | August 27, 2008 at 06:24 AM

This is bull stuff.

Posted by: Heaven | August 27, 2008 at 06:24 AM

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