Its realyrather simple. Te car makers have a budget for how much the fuel cell and tanks and all can cost.Its quite high because the cost of an enhie transmission and radiator and blah blah blah are quite HIGH.

They now know hey can make all the needed parts for the price they need to hit. The ONLY question now is range they can afford to provide and power output of the fuell cell. All the work right now is into cost reducing the compenets and making them last longe so that there is more room within the dubget for such things as overpowrred fuell cells or extra cap tanks and what not.

As for fuel rice... Assuming by 2015 gas prices rise again... h2 prices for sure wont be an issue specialy in a model 2015 fuel cell car given the targeted fuel econ numbers.

In short te dots connected the plan worked its all comming together ahead of sxchedual and under budget.

Meanwhile batteries.. are still more cstly then the car they are put in.. and still of issue as to range... And the car makers KNOW that wont change this decade or quite .. unpeasantly even this century.

And biofuels are fine... until people look at this other then co2. Unlike the h2 car wich will sidestep all sorts of enviro issues and thus a HUGE headache.. thereare alot of unpleassnt things with alchohol and grease and biofuels. Things that will be looked at ahead of time by the car makers and factored into the final cost.

Things like nox.. and how many billions that will cost... partculates and frappy gilters and how much that will cost... .. um do you know what groundwater issues migh pop up with biofuels.....

Do you know what the smog will be like if everyone swaps over to biofuels in a lare city without good air circulation.. say san fran or la?

What additives will wind up being added to biofuels and what special blneds will various states mandate to handle local needs... and what manner of costly doodads are the car makers gona have to hook in to handle all that crap?

And then second and thord gen biofuels.. will they burn differently? Will they require new control equipment be developed for the cars..

Will they seep into groundwater differently...

Will the engine made today that produces c hp and y emmssions o so in 2015 under third or fourth gen biofuels? If not will the car maker have a 50 billion doillar recall on thier hands?

What happens if they miss something and the car maker is sued for 10 trillion? Is everyone 100% sure ALL biofuels are safe in ALL engines in ALL conditions EVERYWHERE? Is the car maker sure? Are the insured in cadse it goes bad... How much insurance do they have?

Are they afriad they have missed something?

Why do people assume that in the future everything is going to be cheaper and availible for everyone. We must keep in mind the classist point of view and look at the straight numbers and the fact that things are going to change like it or not just as things always change, Its never ever gonna be the good ole days again...ever.

In 30 years gas is gonna be $5 to $15 per gallon But by then Milk will be $8 to $25 a gallon too, a soda is gonna be $3 from a vending machine etc. And minimum wage may be up to $10 per hour. Dont freak out. Remember 50 years ago a burger was a dime to a quarter, now they are $3 to $8
Also. Not everyone is going to have a car or be able to afford one yet alone fuel one. Looking at the consumption numbers based on whats availible as well as new expansions of "alternative fuels/energy" the Alternative markets are only a few % of consumption and only grow a few % per year and dont even come close to making a significant impact on the market. Meaning no matter what there is going to be a catastrophic and sudden change in the way things work.

Take for example the ethanol industry, Growing like mad but only able to supply about %3 of the this countries fuel needs. Now lets say we take away all the gas and conventional diesel tomorrow. Only 4 to 5 out of every 100 cars would still be able to run...now, who is going to be driving them? well duh only the ones who can afford it. I hate to take away peoples sense of hope but the straight fact of the matter is that no matter what we do at this rate fuel, driving, energy is not going to get less expensive, It is going to increase. Again, look at this last summers ethanol market. gas goes to $3 a gallon and more, And ethanol that costs less than a dollar a gallon to make was selling for as much as or more than gas. and in some rare cases less. But think about it. If money can be made no matter what price is, people are going to make as much as they can. No one was selling ethanol for around a dollar gallon. So it will be as we progress forward. things are going to change a lot.

Just as the last century saw a huge shift from horse drawn carriages to motor carriages this century will see a new technology shift as well the problems associated with change. 65 to 85 years ago we saw a boom and bust with a lot of change. So it will be again.
Just think, 100 years ago horseless carriages were considered to be the answer to the pollution problem of the day. They were great, they did not litter the road ways with excrement.

In any case economics will be the driving force behind any major change. And shortages will make for the change, Only the privileged shall have all the benefits.
Just as it is now, its just going to be worse :)

Why do people assume that in the future everything is going to be cheaper and available for everyone. We must keep in mind the classist point of view and look at the straight numbers and the fact that things are going to change like it or not just as things always change, Its never ever gonna be the good ole days again...ever.

In 30 years gas is gonna be $5 to $15 per gallon But by then Milk will be $8 to $25 a gallon too, a soda is gonna be $3 from a vending machine etc. And minimum wage may be up to $10 per hour. Dont freak out. Remember 50 years ago a burger was a dime to a quarter, now they are $3 to $8
Also. Not everyone is going to have a car or be able to afford one yet alone fuel one. Looking at the consumption numbers based on whats available as well as new expansions of "alternative fuels/energy" the Alternative markets are only a few % of consumption and only grow a few % per year and dont even come close to making a significant impact on the market. Meaning no matter what there is going to be a catastrophic and sudden change in the way things work.

Take for example the ethanol industry, Growing like mad but only able to supply about %3 of the this countries fuel needs. Now lets say we take away all the gas and conventional diesel tomorrow. Only 4 to 5 out of every 100 cars would still be able to run...now, who is going to be driving them? well duh only the ones who can afford it. I hate to take away peoples sense of hope but the straight fact of the matter is that no matter what we do at this rate fuel, driving, energy is not going to get less expensive, It is going to increase. Again, look at this last summers ethanol market. gas goes to $3 a gallon and more, And ethanol that costs less than a dollar a gallon to make was selling for as much as or more than gas. and in some rare cases less. But think about it. If money can be made no matter what price is, people are going to make as much as they can. No one was selling ethanol for around a dollar gallon. So it will be as we progress forward. things are going to change a lot.

Just as the last century saw a huge shift from horse drawn carriages to motor carriages this century will see a new technology shift as well the problems associated with change. 65 to 85 years ago we saw a boom and bust with a lot of change. So it will be again.
Just think, 100 years ago horseless carriages were considered to be the answer to the pollution problem of the day. They were great, they did not litter the road ways with excrement.

In any case economics will be the driving force behind any major change. And shortages will make for the change, Only the privileged shall have all the benefits.
Just as it is now, its just going to be worse :)

In Response to aa2 the power draw to quickly recharge a typical electric car is not as significant as it might sound. Assuming a 30kw/h battery with 20% charger/battery loss the total power required would be aprox. 36kw/hours. To deliver this amount of power over a 5 minute interval (which is not necessarily required, more on this later) would require a 432kw feed.
Now this is the part I like :-) Since most modern BEVs use battery voltages below 400 and three phase AC drives the controller could be used as the charger, in effect treating the incoming utility feed as regen current. Three phase 480 volt power is ubiquitous in larger commercial settings and has a good selection of weatherproof conductive connectors. So for our 432 kw feed it would require 300 amps of 3 phase power at 480 volts to replenish a battery quickly. Granted were talking about big cables and special connectors, difficult but not impossible.
A 30 minute full recharge time is a little more practical and dovetails nicely with commercial settings (coffee shops, stores, restaurants) at this rate the current draw would be a very reasonable 50 amps. Well within range of any commercial service.
For the home and smaller installations where only single phase power is available a simple step-up transformer could be used to bring the 240 volt source to 480 volts. The controller should be able to handle single or three phase as it operates as a rectifier in either case.
The cool part of this is the charging infrastructure need consist of nothing more than a GFI circuit breaker, contactor, and simple control circuit. When the power connector is attached to the car the controller could run a check for ground faults and connector integrity. Once all is found well the contactor in the outlet pedestal would be activated. Thus no power is flowing when the connection is made. As similar signal could halt current flow when the charging connector is removed or if any faults were detected. This signaling could be done over the ground or power leads by PLC protocols.
200-400 kw sounds like a lot but most utilities distribute power at 12000 volts so even the 432kw 5 minute recharge example only loads the 12kw side with 12 amps. Most main utility feeds are around 200 to 1200 amps so this is a drop in the bucket compared to overall circuit load. , not very different than a large chiller or fan load. Also, at least here in California, the utilities maintain 7% or more "spinning reserve" so the added load would be taken up by the generators immediately.
Since 480v is very common and the controller can easily be designed to accept it the charging infrastructure becomes very simple using common off the shelf parts that any commercial electrician is familiar with. Unlike the ill-fated Magna Charge inductive systems (very expensive and proprietary) used with EV-1, the conductive systems would be quite inexpensive to install and implement, possibly on the order of $500 per station for materials.

EV has been rejected by the public already.
It's quit interesting to hear engineering nerds bash hybrids that are having business success.

Actually I think all lot of us "nerds" are for Hybrid technology with additional electric storage to faciliate grid based propulsion power. True a BEV has limitations even if the holy grail of batteries comes to fruition. However there is significant application of BEV for most people, particularily as a second car or commercial use. The key issue is the power source.

Today's hybrids are gasoline powered vehicles. Electrics can use any power source including "homemade" solar and wind if desired. Clearly future oil stability is in question so we should consider all options including electric only where it works best.

Robert

I think you guys need to rent the DVD "Who killed the electric car?" The consumer wanted the EV-1 but GM did not want to sell them. After watching this DVD, I will never buy another GM car again.

Yep, Saw the movie, the electric car was killed more for cost reasons than conspiracy the way I see it. The EV-1 was cool (and yes I tried to lease one only to be turned down) but realistically was not very practical. The Rav4 EV (which Toyota allowed to be kept was far better). Once CARB Caved on the ZEV Mandate the auto manufacturers were quick to pull the EVs which were a thorn in their side. The cost per vehicle was very high.

That said technology (and oil prices) have changed a lot since then. I can see EVs having some sort of renaissance in the next 10 years but hybrids will dominate until then. Once battery costs come down a little plug-in hybrids will become commonplace and ultimately could bridge the gap to pure electrics.

Thnx, my stuff is --
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