Some people may be starting to suspect that we are not "breaking our addiction" and becoming "energy independent" because there is so much at stake for the people making money off the status quo. Whether that is through lobbying, campaign contributions or just plain inertia, the fact remains that it has changed very little in the last 30 years. Until we get at the root causes resisting change, it will be very difficult to change. That seems obvious.

tom
Yes, I'd like to see the cap taken off the HEV tax credit. New Prius will probably be good enough to go it alone though.

Raphael,
The example of the Prius shows your accounting analysis to be flawed. The Prius has not made economic sense in the USA for ten years (has sold in Japan for nearly that long), but the next model will. Tax credit incentives have helped move this along.
Next step is clearly PHEVs and/or EVs. 75% people in USA drive less than 40 miles per day. A car like the GM Volt, with 40 mile all-electric range and 50 mpg after that, will get an efective 200 mpg when averaged over a representative group of USA drivers. Altair Nanotechnology Li Ion batteries are already demonstrating better performance than needed:
http://thefraserdomain.typepad.com/energy/2006/10/altairnano_test.html#more
“after 15,000 cycles the cells still retained over 85% of their original charge capacity”
The only thing missing is the cost to make economical sense. This is a chicken and egg problem. Economies of scale can drive the cost down, but we need large sales volumes to drive down the cost. Thanks to Pheonix Motorcars, Tesla Motors, Commuter Cars Corporation, Zap, Zenn, and others the conversion of the auto industry has started. It will happen slowly, BUT THERE IS A REAL OPPORTUNITY TO KICK THIS INTO A HIGHER GEAR SOONER USING TAX CREDIT INCENTIVES FOR PHEVs and EVs.

THIS IS A BETTER ONE:
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2007/03/congressman_pro_1.html#more

http://camp.house.gov/press/PressRelease.aspx?NewsID=1830

btw
Altair seems to be the current front runner but there are other Li Ion chemistries (A123, Valence, Electrovaya, Johnson Controls-Saft, EnerDel, LTC, ABT, Mitsubishi). There are new graphite/carbon improved lead acid batteries (FireFly and couple of others), and super-capacitors (EEStor). We may see hybrid capacitor/battery combinations. Maxwell is doing this for heavy HEV garbage trucks. Fuel savings are easily on the order of what you are talking about. The smart engineer will see both, not one or the other. With all these technology options, currently low levels of production, there is no question that costs can come down.
You're not going to see 200 mpg from just making improvements to the ICE like we will from PHEVs. Any improvements you do see will be better applied to small generators on PHEVs. High efficiency turbine, SOFC, or other may make more sense here. All the major car companies know this. They are all working on PHEV development. Say hello to the beginning of a technological transition. Now, let's kick it along down the road!

Nick,
1. "Results equals Rewards" nuts on!
2. plus bio-diesel and bio-butanol.
3. Wind and Solar are nuts on! Include wave power and geothermal. Wave power may prove more cost effective than wind in some areas, like much of USA west coast. (see OPT, OPD, and Finavera Renewables) WA, OR, and CA are all catching on to this. Fewer env. and view concerns with wave power.
4. plus high-energy reactor development and prototype testing. Way more fuel efficient. Less mining, better resource use, less waste storage, and potential to use current low-energy reactor waste as fuel.
5. Include building of coal-to-liquid (CTL) and cellulosic bio-diesel plants as priority for transitional oil. We have plenty of coal, wood, and grass. Technology for both of these is ready. ANWAR development is probably not really needed.
6. If 50/50 means 50 miles all-electric and 50 mpg after this, then nuts on! If not then consider PHEV and EV arguement above. We can already leapfrog past HEVs. Contact Sen and Rep to support Rep Camp bill:
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2007/03/congressman_pro_1.html#more
http://camp.house.gov/press/PressRelease.aspx?NewsID=1830
7. Why bother with CAFE. Auto industry just put up a sacrificial lamb (EV1) and killed it last time. Incentives for PHEVs and EVs will accomplish the goal. Even GM has now seen the writing on the wall. The industry has already started to shift technology. CAFE would just be decorative wall paper on this. Why bother with it?
8. 5 years is very aggressive. I'd be happy with 10. Tell me when you're running for office. I'll be voting for you. Considering what we're spending in Iraq, is this really such a tall order?

Your last comment "just drive them to their knees" is not really necessary. Too many Terminator movies ;-). Even Arnold is now known as the Solinator. What about our good allies with middle east oil: Abu Dhabi, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia? We've already driven the Iraq's to their knees...and we are on ours...ouch! How about we just develop alternatives to the point we can afford to leave them alone if they don't like us? Some good business rules:
1. Be nice. It doesn't cost and it does save.
2. Always consider your alternatives.
If your current business starts to suck, then you can apologetically switch over. This seems much more fair and reasonable to me.

NICE POST!

Rafael:

I believe antagonizing micro- mild- and full- hybrids is wrong. The core of hybrid technology is start-stop and regenerative braking. This necessitates electric power assist for steering, braking, and drive-by-wire throttle. However, in order to achieve real-world fuel saving, battery should be able to keep accessories running and most important – at least 10 minutes operation of AC unit with engine stopped. Automatically this means sizeable battery, which is capable to supply additional power at acceleration. Which in turn allows engine downsizing. Plus ability to move vehicle couple of meters on pure electric in heavy traffic, to avoid frequent start/stop of the engine.

Toyota leaped even further, incorporating starter/alternator/acceleration assist motor to control electromechanical transmission. But this is not of such importance, whether transmission will be hybridizes or not. The vehicle with hybrid arrangement described above will be “real hybrid” anyway.

Andrey, the core of hybrid technology is also using electric motors to supply the acceleration energy required by vehicle, therefore the engine need only supply the much smaller average energy required by the vehicle, and the engine can run in its most efficient speed/torque region and thus can be made much smaller with simpler & more effective emission controls. I'm not sure what you mean by "AC unit". Also the ability to decouple the engine mechanically from the vehicle drive motor, allows for a much greater flexibility in engine design and for considerable scale economy advantages.

Folks

Thanks for the intelligent, well thought-out responses. It's very refreshing to have an informed discussion with others.

Yes, we need to pursue a wide variety of energy production, storage, and distribution methods. There is no silver bullet! Only through diversity can we become energy independent. That said, I don't think our elected officials are among the converted. The administration and/or the folks who control congress are protecting big oil through the use of tariffs (Brazil & US ethanol agreement). Additionally, the big three are protected through the reduction or elimination of hybrid vehicle incentives for non-American vehicle makers (Toyota & Honda).

I've been a red-state guy for well over 26 years, but my patience has worn thin and my loyalty severely tested. I plan on supporting the first presidential candidate that is serious about what I consider our number one national security problem...energy independence. We cannot continue to be held hostage to the whims of unstable governments whose policies are in direct conflict with the American way of life. In my mind, our dependence is our number one vulnerability and we must mitigate now. We must vote out those who seek the "silver bullet" and hold out for the perfect solution later instead of a good one now.

On the surface, Sen. Biden's proposal looks adequate until we dig deeper. His proposal holds nobody accountable and does not demand results or at least reward results and penalize failure. Something's wrong with this picture. If this were grade school, we could give out awards for effort, but in the adult world the metric is significantly more demanding.

Finally, MDS is correct. No need to be ugly. We should not strive to hurt others, but rather make sure they don't do things to hurt us. Thanks for keeping me straight MDS....

Thanks, Nick

Put in a carbon tax, with proceeds going into the social security trust fund. This will kill two birds with one stone.

I suppose I should not have singled out Biden's party affiliation, since it is true that both parties do this pork spending to buy voters' loyalties.

I do believe that the government grant system is severely broken. Hundreds of billions in taxpayer money is given away with few strings attached. As a venture capital investor, the government is a complete fool.

Even if money is only paid out as 'prizes' for results, those results are just lab results -- proof of concept. Better than requiring no results at all, but still no guarantee of getting products into the market.

The government has become a huge customer of almost anything you could imagine. It can influence the market for any product all by itself simply by announcing what it intends to purchase - money that it would have spent anyway. There is no need for tax credits, grants, or 'funding' from the government. If the industry is assured of a market, it will find a way to produce the product.

All the government needs to do is announce that after 2008 it will only buy highway-capable vehicles if they use less than 50% as much petroleum fuel as the vehicles replaced. And it won't pay a premium that can't be made back in fuel savings. Battery electric, PHEV, HEV, high efficiency diesel, micro-turbine, whatever. Let the market produce the vehicles or lose a huge customer.

Warren:

AC stands for Air Conditioner. In addition to my and your comments on hybrid drivetrain, continuously variable transmission (mechanical in Civic, electro mechanical in Prius) allows for operation of gasoline engine at near full throttle – near max efficiency - at almost all the time. This is, actually, brilliance of Toyota technology – mutually beneficial combination of battery hybrid, electro mechanical transmission, and optimized gasoline engine. BTW, coming dual mode hybrid transmission from GM with off-spins to BMW, DB, and Chrysler for trucks and RWD luxury cars are even better.

Nick, Kirk:

We are trying here on GCC to outline technical solutions for sustainable and independent personal transportation. Political and economical measures are important, but by itself they will not solve anything.

Andrey:
I could not agree more and I appreciate the forum GCC has provided. Political and economic measures, in isolation, are not effective. My inference is that we (US Science and Technology Experts) currently have feasible and reasonable solutions, but our noble efforts are frustrated by some who hold great sway over actualization. I appreciate your comments and understand that this is not a politically motivated blog. Currently, our nation is at a crossroads. Science, technology, political and economic interests need to congeal in order address our collective number one national challenge.

Hopefully, my dialog is provocative rather than disruptive.

Thanks, Nick

Andrey, a CVT is not going to allow an engine to run at maximum efficiency at typical city driving speeds. You need significant energy storage for that, and sufficient EM horsepower to provide the acceleration energy and equivalently absorb the deceleration energy. A diesel engine running at 30% efficiency in 5th gear drops to ~25% in 4th gear, ~12% in 3rd gear, ~7% in 2nd gear, and ~5% in 1st gear.

Regarding the Air Conditioning, running a 1kw air conditioner for 10 min would only use .1 kwh of battery energy, not very significant, for a series hybrid with a typical 5 kwh battery pack.

This may be a moot point.

Rumour has it that Toyota has already come up with an A123-competitive lithium-ion battery and that Panasonic EV can manufacture it at reasonable cost.

I guess we'll find out next Autumn.

Typical Democrat politician. Give away taxpayer money with no guarantee of any beneficial result.

This comment displays near-complete ignorance of how research works. Most research efforts fail to deliver beneficial results. The success rate is even worse that start-up companies (most of which also fail or barely survive). If they don't mostly fail, you've been too conservative. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, for example, estimates only about 1% of its projects lead to delivered weapons systems -- but those 1% more than pay for the entire effort, and they're quite satisfied with that result.

"...-- but those 1% more than pay for the entire effort, and they're quite satisfied with that result."

It takes a communist mindset to admit this and still believe only government is willing to take those risks to reap those rewards.

The US put a man on the moon in 1969 by diverting 4% of GDP to the effort, now we are throwing pennies (in relative terms) at the problem of our age, while funding defence to the tune of $660bn per year.

Our politicians need to get a grip and seriously start the journey to a renewable and energy independent future.

Andrey,

If technical solutions are all we are to discuss, then why even post this article ? It is pure politics with no technical merits.

Biden's proposal to expand funding is for areas that have few technical challenges. Tesla, Zap, PML Flightlink, AC Propulsion, etc. have shown that LiIon batteries are techincally mature enough for vehicle use.

Proposals to fund additional research are counter-productive in that they foster the belief that viable battery solutions do not yet exist.

Government money would be better spent in placing large orders for end-products that justify the capital expenditure to lower cost through economies of scale.

It seems that car manufacturers are opting for the Zebra Battery , Think and Reva to name two , Mes Dea have had this type of battery in cars for over two years now ,
and it seems to be very reliable . I read a blog on the web written by a guy who is running one of these cars for his daliy commute , he regulary gets 160 km on a charge and has not noticed any change in peformance over two years and some
36000 km covered , also he reports very few problems despite his car being one of the protoypes! Mes Dea are building a new factory in switzerland to produce this
battery on a much larger scale .

It takes a communist mindset to admit this and still believe only government is willing to take those risks to reap those rewards.

Actually, government investment in R&D is one of the few things that libertarian-minded people can get behind. The reason is that knowledge is what's known as a 'positive externality'. It directly benefits people who don't pay for it.

Positive externalities are a sign of market failure. They indicate the market will produce less of the good than is economically optimal. Patents and other IP laws are also attempts to work around this failure (do you consider those to be 'communist' also? If not, why not?).

Anyway, the people at DOD are presumably not idiots. Why would they fund DARPA if the results could be obtained for free from the private sector? The fact that DARPA is producing results of value to DOD indicates that the private sector wasn't doing it.

Now, this doesn't mean that everything the government funds in R&D makes sense. Many projects are ignored in the private sector for darn good reason. But a blanket dismissal of the kind you make is just plain economically ignorant.

Many times, development may not work out, but what was learned is carried over into the next attempt. This knowledge and expertise is cumulative and needs to be accounted for. Once the well dries up, it is hard to get the ball rolling once again. (sorry for the mixed metaphor :)

warmongering and Pork,nothing else!