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Study: CO2 Output from Shipping On Same Order as That of Aviation, Could Double by 2050

10 March 2007

Fuel_emissions_international_shipping_80
Transport-related annual emissions of CO2, NOx, SO2 and PM10 and the fuel consumption in Tg estimated for the year 2000 (rescaled from Eyring et al., J. Geophys. Res., 2005a). Click to enlarge.

Current carbon dioxide emissions from the shipping industry likely exceeds those from aviation, and could double by 2050, according to recent studies by the Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre (IPA) of the Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR) and by the College of Marine and Earth Studies of the University of Delaware.

In addition, marine emissions of SO2 could also double, while NOx emissions could exceed those of road traffic in the same time span.

The studies reveal converging estimates of current ship emissions and suggest that shipping emitted around 800 Tg CO2 and contributed around 2.7% to all anthropogenic CO2 emissions in 2000 (1 Tg = 1012 g = 1 million metric tons = 1 Mt). The same studies put aviation emissions of CO2at about 650 Tg.

Given uncertainties in all emission inventories, these figures should be considered best estimates within a bounded range of 600 to 900 Tg of CO2 per year, according to the IPA. The IPA concludes that CO2 emissions from shipping are of the same order as published CO2 estimates for aviation.

For comparison, aviation and road transport contributed around 2.2% and 14%, respectively. Other comparisons suggest that shipping accounts for around 15% of all global anthropogenic nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions and for around 8% of sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions. The relatively high contribution is a result of marine engines operating at high temperatures and pressures without effective NOx emission reduction technologies and because of the high average sulfur content (2.4%-2.7%) in marine fuels.

Recent studies from DLR have shown that fuel consumption from ocean-going ships has increased by a factor of 4.3 from 1950 to 2000, reaching around 280 Tg today.

Future scenarios demonstrate that significant reductions are needed to offset increased emissions due to growth in seaborne trade and cargo energy intensity. If no aggressive emission reduction strategies are introduced, CO2 and SO2 emissions from ships could double present-day values by 2050, and NOx emissions could exceed present-day global road transport.

An International Maritime Organization (IMO) study of greenhouse gas emissions estimates that emissions from the global fleet would increase dramatically in the next 20 years as globalization leads to increased demand for bigger, faster ships, according to a report in the Guardian. Without action the IMO predicts that by 2020, emissions from ships would increase up to 72%.

Global comparisons of emission totals from different transport modes describe only part of the picture, IPA cautions. For example, the related passenger and freight transported volumes will need to be considered in addition. Also, the distribution of shipping activity follows major trade routes, such that ship emissions near coastal areas affect regional air quality, environment, and public health.

Resources:

March 10, 2007 in Aviation, Climate Change, Emissions, Ports and Marine | Permalink | Comments (34) | TrackBack (0)

Comments

I expect future cargo ships will be coal fired with some form of plant oil/animal fat/ocky goop that burns used when near shore.

But I dont expect that to be needed for a few more deaces as heavy oil and oil sands both likely result in even more percentage of icky burnable goop. aka bunker oil.

Posted by: wintermane | March 12, 2007 at 08:59 AM

Andrey the Pedant,
non-biological systems are often referred to colloquially as healthy or sick or crook, and many would argue that our planet as a whole is much more than a non- biological system.
And since we're geting picky, just because pollution is emitted mid-ocean doesn't mean it is harmless!

Posted by: Aussie Paul | March 13, 2007 at 12:13 AM

Aussie, to be pedant to the end:

Reference to the Earth as being living creature is a)meaningless b)too many folks are making fa-a-ar reaching claims on this base, like humankind being “scum of the Earth”

That’s why I do not like it.

Exhaust emissions over the ocean are harmless for only one reason: they got washed down to the ocean quite fast, and compared to amount of same substances in sea water they are just minuscule and do not harm ocean ecosystems. Not the case with oil spills or ballast water discharge, for that matter.

Posted by: Andrey | March 13, 2007 at 03:17 AM

Why not have a duel cycle gas turbine/steam engine(s)? Duel cycle is even more efficient then diesel, and duel cycle using gasification could burn almost anything. The only problem I see is that a duel cycle system would be complex and very expensive.

As for the particle bed reactor, the particles in the reactor would be very difficult to refine nuclear fissionables from (it's been tried before for thorium cycle and failed) and the particles would also be difficult to us in a dirty bomb. So the particle bed reactor (at least on paper) could be much more economical and safer then light water reactors, perhaps even cheap and safe enough to power large ships.

Posted by: Ben | March 14, 2007 at 12:05 PM

Ben,

I believe your observations are accurate. Rod Adams does not speak to energy density on his web site. The South African pebble bed is low power but has a physically large core. I have not seen anything that says sufficient energy density for a mobile source can be achieved with a pebble bed.

I am not saying it can't be done, I just haven't seen anything that says it can be.

Posted by: Bill Young | March 14, 2007 at 07:51 PM

Bill Young,

Well the pebble beds are big (the core is as big as a silo!), that run in a closed Brayton cycle using helium, this is very efficient, but has a much lower power density then even a steam Rankine cycle. So yes I agree I would have to see a study on the feasibility of cramming a pebble bed in a little tiny post-panmax ship (I'm being sarcastic) in short the pebble bed is big, but the ships are bigger!

Posted by: ben | March 17, 2007 at 05:39 AM

Guys, I'm really interested in how biofuels can help reduce greenhse gas emissions. Can anyone help me point out the difference between using ethanol and methanol applicatons?

Posted by: Jeremy | March 25, 2007 at 05:46 PM

Is there a average output that can be used as a constant to estimate CO2 for freight shipping in association to milage. ie 1000 miles = ?? CO2 I realise this would be only a guideline.

How else could we calculate co2 output for x amount of shipping milage ??

Posted by: ddeakin | March 04, 2008 at 09:08 PM

Does anyone have fuel consumption data for cruise ships?

I remember looking at the Transport Task figures for Australia and the mode of ferries/ships was bottom of the ladder. So irrespective of motor or fuel are we not talking about a wasteful form of transport in the first place. I was rather see less shipping because I know we dont need 90% of what is shipped and its damaging local economy and does not make economic sense.

I know there is a role for shipping and cruises but we needs as well to look at what we are doing and whether its a good idea to keep doing it.

Nigel

Posted by: Nigel | October 31, 2008 at 02:48 PM

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