Henrick - "Such a cellulose harvest is realistic on a global scale because I repeat that the planet contains more than 1000 billion tons of biomass that regenerates in about every 11 years."

Yes that might be true however there is no way every single ton of that could be used. Like anything the size of the resource is not the important factor. The measure is the URR. The realistic URR of biomass would be a third of this figure in line with most natural resources like oil where only about 30% of the resource is recoverable no matter what technology you use. Also the environmental damage that producing biomass and removing it on this scale from the eco-system would be massive.

The thing that you are also neglecting is that oil is present in all the costs that you mention, not just transportation which is the point that I am making. Fossil fuels are used to create the feedstock, build the capital works, produce and transport the enzymes, and feed and transport the labour. All of these costs will rise with rising oil prices not just the transportation costs. Assuming that we could replace all the fossil fuels in the whole chain of ethanol production then the energy return would then be so close to 1 that you really need to question why bother?

Corn it is a reasonably compact energy source compared to cellulose so the transport cost are fairly low, this is the same for sugar and other present feedstocks. When you start talking general biomass then this is a much more difficult proposition to transport and store ready to convert. It is no good gathering a thousand tons of biomass just to have it rot away because it cannot be used fast enough. There are non-trivial problems to solve surrounding the transport and storage of extremely large volumes of raw biomass even before unproven cellulostic ethanol production becomes mature technology.

"The production energy (not transportation energy) in today’s corn ethanol fabrication is due to use of electricity and natural gas mostly for heating purposes. Today a few ethanol producers have begun to use electricity generated by wind turbines. This will change dramatically and in 10 to 15 years all ethanol producers will use wind turbine electricity because it will be the least costly form of electricity available."

With this I have the same question as I do for hydrogen fuel cells and that is why bother. Wind farms generate a very high quality fuel called electricity. This can be reticulated, with the present distribution system, at very low cost and can power electric cars with off the shelf technology. Ethanol cannot be stored really easily and if it was the only fuel available would require large modifications to the fuel distribution network.

Again why do this:

Wind farm -> electricity -> ethanol plant + feedstock -> ethanol -> heat engine (lose 80%) -> drive car

when you can do this:
Wind Farm -> electricity -> charge batteries(lose 10%) -> electric motor (lose 10%) -> drive car

Why bother with the ethanol part at all? The only reason I can see for ethanol is a desperate attempt to keep the present car fleet intact with all the surrounding industries no matter what the cost.

Wind -> Ethanol is not good thing, but the waste heat from thermal power plants can be use to make Ethanol.

But Wind -> Electricity -> Vehicles is good.

We need both and all other sources of energy as more countries need more energy.

Since Year 2000, Wind, Biomass, Solar has all grown by 25-30 % / year and soon they may all cross 1% share of World energy consumption.

"Why bother at all?"
No one wants to hear it, but we will absolutely need this ethanol (and biodeisel). Just not for our cars.

Long haul trucking, trains, airplanes, or even home heating is NOT viable with electricity. They need a more compact energy source that doesn't weigh as much as batteries. Private transportation in 10 years will be moving to a combination of electric and mass transit. But trucks, trains, planes, tractors, and home heating will be heading towards biofuel.
It is far better to produce the biofuel infrastructure NOW while we have the oil resources to build with, then it is trying to build the infrastructure when the shi-ites hit the fan and there is NO oil to produce said infrastructure. I really don't care how they sell it, it needs to be done for future energy security. In fact, I predict ethanol and biodeisel will continue to be mixed with dino fuels in a higher and higher percentage until it is clear that route is not feasable. This will be about the same time we realize that Natural gas has peaked and viola! you have bio fuel ready to heat homes and haul freight. But Joe public will be walking, biking, or taking mass trasit. Unless you're wealthy and can afford an electric car.

Darwin: I agree with most of your points but would question two of your statements. Home heating and cooling can be done efficiently (400%) with electricity if you use a ground heat pump. As for trains, I just spent a summer tootling around Europe on electric trains. We're going to have to move more freight by rail and use bio-diesel for the rest of the trucks.

Ender we bother with ethanol because it makes economic sense right now whereas electric cars do not. Corn ethanol in the US is now produced at an annual capacity of 5850 million gallons at $2.1 per gallon. Very competitive compared to gasoline at almost $3 per gallon. Ethanol already runs what amounts to several millions of highway capable cars which are in contrast to the zero highway capable electric cars that are available to US citizens today. In four years from now we will be lucky if we have more than 25000 highway capable electric cars on the road and they will be very expensive compared to ICE driven cars. In four years from now annual ethanol production will be at 15000 million gallons. As a cheap and fast way to become independent of oil imports for transportation ethanol is a prime candidate.

In 10 years from now maybe EVs will start to become really interesting if they can produce those batteries in large quantities at reasonable cost. But 10 years is a long time to wait and I fear that there is a large chance that it will get really ugly in a few years in the Middle East (in 2 years when the US withdraw from Iraq) so ethanol appears to be the best way to keep going as usual in the US no matter what happens abroad. It is foolish and careless to rely on others when it comes to basic food and energy.

Geothermal heat pumps will be used IN COMBINATION with either elecric heat or biofuel.
I live in MN, and while I am planning on installing a geothermal pump, it will only reduce my heating bill in half. It cannot provide enough heat in 10 below weather. It will be great in spring and fall for buffering the outside swings, but in the heart of winter, it's not enough. We'll need hybrid furnaces, and biofuel can fit that without SEVERLY taxing the current electric infrastructure (as electric heating would).

As for rail, Europe has a much higher human density. The stretched of farmland between cities with the electric infrastructure is much less. To send electric trains accross the US would require massive electric infrastructure, whereas a biodeisel train is ready to go today. Of course, mass transit rail in the cities should, will, and is developing on an electric infrastructure.

I know I'm way off topic here, but why would your heat pump not work in less than than -10? If it were an air based heat pump I could see why. For cold climates can't you simply install a larger (and deeper) infrastructure of pipes? If you use it as AC in the summer then you can put the heat right back in the ground. I live in Vancouver, they work all year here.

Most people don't have enough acreage to install a heat pump that big, to the point that it can keep a house warm in 10 below (F NOT C) weather. A heat pump will still work, but would need to be supplemented.
The heat loss to the outside at that temp. gradient is too much to overcome with a standard residential (liquid)heat pump.

Vancouver has those warm ocean currents going by, making it quite a bit more moderate than MN. I've seen it as cold as 30 degrees below F. Which would compare to the interior of Canada, but not Vancouver. Are people in the interior of Canada using stand alone heat pumps? I'd be very suprised (and excited) if they were.

Darwin/Darwood I talked with these people: http://www.bryantgeo.com/
and they say there is no problem with MN (I've heard of them being used in Edmonton) ... not cheap to install, but cheap to run. It will work as AC in the summer.
The temperature restrictions you were referring to belong to the air source heat pumps. If property size is a problem then you can (at a cost) bring in a small drilling rig and install the system vertically. (Maybe you'll hit a super giant while you're at it.)

To prep for low oil supply you need to do a few things NOW.
1 Get off heating oil. Its going to shrink in supply rapidly and soar in cost.
2 If you live in cold climes.. superinsulate NOW.Replace all windows with much better ones and try to enclose all areas with alot of windows in an enckised and insualtrf porch.
3 Think about moving if you cant afforf drastic upgrades. You dont need to move far just to a better smallrt home you can then upgrade with the extra money left over from the big home.

We moved to a smallrt far more insulated home ssome years back and it realy helps.

I DID just move. Been here 1 year and have spent $11,000 on new windows and added 8 inches of insulation throughout.
No urban homes in MN use heating oil, they all use natural gas. Remote rural homes use propane, but some still use heating oil.
I'm still going to need to reduce my Nat gas usage though. Even with the improvements I've made, My Nat. gas bill peaks out in midwinter at about 350$.
A heat pump and solar and/or on demand water heater is in my future, but I can't afford the massive cost right now.

Dont forget to both milk grants and zero interest loans alot of orgs give out for such things.

How thick are your walls and roof? What r value?

Iknow a ftiend of mine finaly went full tilt a few years back and retrofittrf in 3 foot thick insualted walls ans roof and insualted his slab even down to 10 feet to isolate his concrete pad and theearth below it from the much cikder ground outside. As I remember he wound up needing only candles and a brist run on a treadmill and the occasional cooked meal to heat his home... but then he wasnt exact sane either...