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WG III Preview: Global Transportation Energy Use and Emissions to Grow 80% by 2030

Robust global growth in transportation will increase energy use and carbon emissions in the sector by about 80% over 2002 levels by 2030, according to the technical summary of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group III report to be issued 4 May, as described by Reuters.

Transportation accounted for 26% of total world energy use in 2004. Projections, barring a major shift, see ongoing growth in use by around 2% per year. The study projects biofuels could rise to 3% of total transport fuel by 2030, or to 10% if a penalty for emitting heat-trapping carbon dioxide were $25 a ton.

The summary notes that measures such as tighter vehicle efficiency standards, lighter materials and better aerodynamics could double the fuel economy of new vehicles by 2030, roughly halving their emissions. The report projects greater use of hybrid cars, but calls the outlook for hydrogen powered vehicles uncertain, according to Reuters.

Comments

gr

Unfortunately the organization (IPCC) responsible for this study has come under a dark shadow. Progress is made when a fair and open review of ALL the facts propel it. It is now clear that many prominent peer-reviewed scientists disagree with the IPCC's report on global warming. Not unexpected as climatology is anything but exact - see "The Great Global Warming Swindle" the BBC Channel Four documentary.

These claims are suspect as they do not acknowledge escalating biofuel& EV use regardless of a carbon tax. As much as we agree with the goals of the IPCC - "The Sky is Falling" hysteria is not only disingenuous - it will cause discrediting blowback that may take years to counter. Better to approach the problem with level heads, all perspectives, and less strident politics. The earth's largest polluter? It's very own volcanoes - not exactly man made as yet.

Stan Peterson

This scenario (Can't dignify it with a nominal idenification as a "prediction") run counter to the very essence of this blog. Electrification of ground transport is coming. Even the crankiest will admit it will be in full fledged advance and adoption by 2030.

This alarmist dreck is just that... s-l-u-d-g-e.

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