Robust global growth in transportation will increase energy use and carbon emissions in the sector by about 80% over 2002 levels by 2030, according to the technical summary of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group III report to be issued 4 May, as described by Reuters.
Transportation accounted for 26% of total world energy use in 2004. Projections, barring a major shift, see ongoing growth in use by around 2% per year. The study projects biofuels could rise to 3% of total transport fuel by 2030, or to 10% if a penalty for emitting heat-trapping carbon dioxide were $25 a ton.
The summary notes that measures such as tighter vehicle efficiency standards, lighter materials and better aerodynamics could double the fuel economy of new vehicles by 2030, roughly halving their emissions. The report projects greater use of hybrid cars, but calls the outlook for hydrogen powered vehicles uncertain, according to Reuters.