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What Do Automakers Need for Lithium-Ion Systems to Enter the Market?
17 May 2007
At a panel session at the Advanced Automotive Battery and Ultracapacitor Conference (AABC) this week in Long Beach, California, directors and managers of advanced battery systems from GM and from Ford provided some insight into automakers’ requirements for lithium-ion battery technology to enter the automotive business.
The task of displacing NiMH is not trivial, according to Ted Miller, Advanced Battery Systems Supervisor for Ford. NiMH offers excellent performance and simplified controls. In addition, from a technology adoption point of view, NiMH offers validated performance and life models; a well-established production base; and a proven track record—all very important to automakers in assessing a technology for inclusion in future products.
Nevertheless, lithium-ion chemistry has two factors strongly in its favor: first, the power and energy attributes of the chemistry make it a solid choice for advanced hybrids, plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles. Second, the price of nickel is skyrocketing.
Director of GM’s Materials and Processes Lab, Mark Verbrugge, said that bringing lithium-ion batteries into advanced vehicles
...is a question of how and when, not a question of whether it will happen. Once you recognize the need is there, and that society will demand the products, the question is when.
That “when” is bounded by a well-defined process that, while it may vary in some specifics from company to company, is essentially similar for all the automakers.
Ted Miller outlined five basic criteria that must be met before lithium-ion technologies can move into showrooms:
Basic data on the specific cells and packs, including performance (versus temperature, state of charge and life); life (cycle and calendar); cost (with a detailed bill of materials and a model); and abuse tolerance.
Design information, including packaging, electrical and thermal (the heat transfer model).
Models, models and more models. “Better modeling is really critical,” said Miller. MATLAB-based performance, life, electrochemical models, all with costs.
Performance model. This needs to be a cell-level equivalent circuit model in MATLAB that provides voltage and current response based on power demand or input; response over the full operating temperature range; thermal response during simulated usage; and degradation behavior as a function of simulated usage.
Electrochemical model. This should determine electrode-level behavior and performance limitations over the full operating range (temperature, pulse current and time, change in SOC, and cell life). Verification testing to validate the model is required.
Life model. A cell life (cycle and calendar) model must be developed in order to determine the effect of usage and stand time. The model must consider the fundamental cell performance deterioration mechanism. Again, verification testing and lab analysis is required to validate the model.
A credible battery manufacturing plan, including plant investment, timing and production design qualification. The automakers also want details regarding the suppliers and support for production materials, and an R&D plan for performance improvement and cost reduction.
Fundamental analysis of performance degradation, with validation.
More specifically, there are three stages through which a new technology program—in this case, lithium-ion batteries—need to move: concept readiness, implementation readiness, and manufacturing.
In Concept Readiness, the requirements and design concept are defined and understood. Any IP or patent issues and/or opportunities are reviewed, and safety assessments are completed. Manufacturing feasibility is assessed, a demonstration strategy is established, business case and cost targets are set, and key technology issues are identified.
In the Concept Readiness stage, batteries would be manufactured in a lab-scale operation—a low-volume production of 10's to 100's of meters of electrode per day, or several thousand cells per year. The manufacturing operation would combine automated winding and hand assembly, and have an investment level of $5-$10 million.
The Implementation Readiness stage that follows, agreement on design trade-offs is reached, and complete validation plans and a detailed safety analysis are developed. The business case is confirmed. Manufacturing would be a pilot-scale operation with moderate volume cell production of 10's to 100's of thousands per year. Small-scale automation would handle most processes. This stage requires an investment level of $20-$30 million in manufacturing.
The final stage is Volume Production. This is a high volume, fully automated operation, capable of producing tens of millions of cells per year, with high quality process controls. The necessary investment level at this manufacturing stage is $100-$150 million.
Partnerships with key suppliers and experienced battery R&D and manufacturing teams are key, especially given the process gauntlet the cells must run. Having few US producers makes this “more challenging” for the US-based automakers.
From Ford’s point of view, there are a number of remaining technical challenges for lithium-ion batteries: improved low-temperature performance, fail-safe operation, simplified battery controls and life validation.
However, Miller noted, “I call lithium-ion a PHEV enabler. It’s the obvious option for PHEVs.” Among the benefits that lithium-ion batteries offer for plug-ins—aside from the energy and storage densities—are tunability (being able to design for an application-optimized power-to-energy ratio), and a wider range of electrode material choices (thereby avoiding being captive to a single metal).
For GM, which has already announced it plans to produce a plug-in version of the upcoming two-mode Saturn VUE hybrid with 10 miles all-electric range and has shown the Volt concept with 40-mile all-electric range, plug-ins are definitely on the agenda.
We are being challenged by our leadership to get these products [plug-in hybrids] and get the energy storages systems for these products as quickly as possible.
—Joe LoGrasso, Engineering Group manager for Hybrid Energy Storage Systems at GM
But, LoGrasso noted, like other automakers,
GM uses a multiphase process [for battery integration], qualifying cell and module capability, cycle life, calendar life and power. Then we develop and test the packs to evaluate performance attributes, then work through the integration. This is all a precursor to declaring a solution technically ready and then planning production. This can take on the order of 5 years—from the start of evaluation to the showroom.
That’s a long time. That’s something we have to as an industry and as a company figure out ways to improve... [figuring out] how to parallel path some of these key work streams to develop battery solutions and vehicles is very important.
OEMs need to evaluate and select the best-in-class technology; figure out a reuse strategy across platforms; and move to plug-and-play energy storage integration, LoGrasso said. Energy Storage System Suppliers—which includes battery developers, pack developers and integrators, as well as the materials and components suppliers—need quick entry into the market (revenue); to minimize OEM-specific design work; and to share risk. Everyone wants to focus on their internal strengths.
LoGrasso suggested several areas in which standards could meet both groups needs. These ares for potential standardization are:
A common battery controls interface.
A standard “battery usage” record. Currently there is no good means of determining and recording how a battery is used. Ambiguity is not good. A recorded battery history with common metrics could also be useful for the secondary battery market. This would also prove important in the extremely sensitive area of warranties.
Standard charging interfaces for PHEVs.
Battery system verification. Each OEM currently has customized verification and validation plans. Common verification could lead to earlier technology readiness assessments, and could reduce verification costs and lead time.
LoGrasso said that GM is working with its hybrid partners BMW and DaimlerChrysler to develop and bring these and other ideas forward.
Successfully bringing lithium-ion technology to market will require collaboration, said Miller:
It will require collaboration between automakers, battery makers and the government. It this is important, we have to put our money where our mouth is. If we cede this opportunity, if we cede this technology, shame on us.
The market is obviously growing but it’s not there yet. Everyone has to get involved from our side and the government side...there has to be some [mutual] assumption of risk.
May 17, 2007 in Batteries, Plug-ins, Vehicle Manufacturers | Permalink | Comments (44) | TrackBack (0)
Comments
Posted by: JoeySoCal | May 18, 2007 at 09:49 PM
correction for post at 9:49 PM.
...but they *can't* throw a decent battery pack on it and a dingle?
Posted by: JoeySoCal | May 18, 2007 at 09:53 PM
The next couple of years are going to be extremely interesting in the field of automotive engineering. The attempt by the oil companies to move diesel ICEs back into the American market and the rush, with government assistance, to bio fuels are measures to continue with the current system of building complicated, inefficient ICE power systems and the required equally complicated and expensive emissions controls. it never made sense to me to build a dirty, inefficient, internal explosive engine and then spend all that money to clean up the dirty gases it creates.
I intend to drive my old Volvo and wait for the BEV family sedan. If more people would wait it might speed development of the battery-driven family sedan.
Posted by: Lad | May 18, 2007 at 10:27 PM
It couldn't be clearer that NiMH sucks and is totally impractical for plug-in duties - 120 year old lead acids are better overall than NiMH.
I'm amazed that so much ignorance exists about the Chevy VOLT. The VOLT is slated for production and, judging by the recent statements from A123 Systems, they will be providing the batteries. There is an awful
lot of silly chatter about GM's intentions that tells me that many out there simply aren't paying attention to what's going on. Perhaps the lies spread by "Who Killed the Electric Car?" die hard. I have a hard time explaining how so many viewers could be so gullible
and swaloow the silly conspiracy theories in that film.
They seem to lack any ability to think logically, because none of those theories are even remotely plausible to a semi-intelligent human being.
Posted by: Kerry Buehrt | May 19, 2007 at 04:43 AM
Kerry:
"120 year old lead acids are better overall than NiMH"
I'm not saying that NiMH are all that great but your little piece of hyperbole hurts your credibility.
Compared to lead acid NiHM has better weight,energy and cycle life
Price is the only meaningfull advantage lead acid has over NiMH. (note: I'm not including firefly in this statement)
Posted by: Neil | May 19, 2007 at 05:49 AM
And unusually interesting thread. Thanks to Joey for kicking it off. The bottom line is that none of us really know what's going on behind the scenes. We throw the facts and rumors that pop up into a bag, shake them up and then try to make sense out of the mix. There's probably at least a shadow of truth to everything said on this subject and to all the comments made on the article. To all those who think big auto, represented by the likes of USABC and a jillion high paid lobbyists, are simply not nimble or brave enough to make a clear decision and quickly take decisive action, they should examine recent history.
"Who killed the electric car" only touched on who killed the California zero emission initiative. Further examination of that era shows that the car companies and oil companies were instantly decisive in their goal to kill this initiative. They moved with lightning speed to assemble attorneys and public relations people. They funded this effort without hesitation. They employed lies and deception and of course lobbying to achieve their goal of snuffing out the California initiative and grinding its remnants under their boot heels. Big auto and big oil should pat themselves on the back. They proved they can get together on a common goal and execute like a Blitzkrieg. All that was left after that success was to round up and crush the few EVs that had seeped out as a result of California initiative. Job done.
Posted by: Lee | May 19, 2007 at 09:30 AM
"I'm not including firefly in this statement"
You might as well, they don't even have a product for sale yet. They have some promising technology but it's going to be a while before they build up packs and validate them for automotive use.
As for everyone talking about A123 lets not forgot that they have a development agreement with Cobasys for the GM vehicles, thats what the two new battery lines were developed for.
The next prius will have a lithium battery, but lets no one else can buy those batteries because Toyota has majority ownership of Panasonic EV Energy.
Posted by: Anonymous | May 19, 2007 at 06:03 PM
Nice thing about nLiFePO4 is that it will enable a lot of new entrants (such as Tesla, but mainly from China and Korea) in the automotive industry, due to the manufacturing simplicity of the vehicle, and who will provide stiff competition, and cause these monopoly capital hacks to lose their jobs to downsizing, and then they will have to finally STFU.
Posted by: Beek | May 19, 2007 at 10:31 PM
If you think you have most or all of the answers then stop doing what you do right now and start a firm that produce and sell EV or PHEV. Don’t come up with any excuses just do it if you think you know how to.
Its called economics (or capital). The entry fee into this game starts from $100 million. I suppose you have this sort of capital and you are going put it in my project, right?
Posted by: Beek | May 19, 2007 at 10:46 PM
Beek if one are truly clever and know all the answers then it is also possible to get the necessary money from people who got it. Just like Tesla’s founders although we still need to see whether they will prevail.
Posted by: Henrik | May 20, 2007 at 03:07 PM
How come nobody has pointed out the cost? A PHEV battery today will cost the OEM about $100,000.
Also, these conversion kit strategies can't be used by OEM's. After the conversion, the vehicles don't even come close to meeting emissions (CO, HC, NOx) standards.
Posted by: Steve | May 21, 2007 at 08:22 AM
Steve, the cost of nLiFePO4 (A123) is now at $400/KWh to OEM.
A 20KWh nBEV battery will cost only $8,000 and give you 80 miles of range, without charging. This is bound to drop to $4,000 in the next 3 years.
Your $100,000 figure is wierd.
Posted by: Beek | May 21, 2007 at 01:53 PM
Beek, where do you get the $400/kWh OEM price for A123 cells? That's a huge drop from their recent pricing. Also, do battery makers who buy their LiFePO4 from Phostech price their cells significantly below A123? Thanks in advance.
Posted by: doggydogworld | May 22, 2007 at 11:52 AM
The article is a whole lot of "saying nothing" in my opinion. If they had any incling of common sense then they would check out who uses Li-ion or Li-pol batteries now. Just for example the model aircraft and even full scale sailplanes (Antares) have been developing these 'models' for years and I even have some of my own battery-motor models, in MATLAB too! Its not very difficult if you have the will! These large companies just have no idea of how to tackle problems beyond what they already know or do. Small companies are certainly the only form of creative enterprise capable of tackling these tasks, unless of course the large company is a not for profit institution...Bosch perhaps? We as consumers have to learn to support the start-ups if we want this technology to succeed. In the process that means consumers taking risks, i.e. buying products that do not have the Toyota, VW,GM, Ford etc stamp of approval and the associated guaranty of performance. But this means the consumer researching the product and we have become less inclined to do that and tend to buy "brands' as it is the easy and "safe' thing to do. SO it is somewhat understandable that these 'safe' companies develop product for consumers who make 'Safe' decisions.
Posted by: AirborneVolts | May 25, 2007 at 12:47 AM
mike_A wrote:
"I can understand that the[y] want the Govt in on this. To have the rug pulled out from underneath you after a billion dollar investment is not fun. I don't condone it as Toyota ha[s] managed to do the job without any real help, but that is the big buisiness way."
US auto manufacturers have had their heads in the sand for over a decade.
If I have any sympathy for US car manufacturers, it stems from the way that health care costs are paid here. International companies are not on the hook for the hospital bills of their retirees the way that American companies are.
I would offer GM, Ford, and Chrysler a trade. The US taxpayer will underwrite PHEV development in this country in exchange for:
1) A binding obligation to actually produce and sell high-efficiency vehicles, on a fairly short timetable -- no repeat of the PNGV bait-and-switch;
2) Their full participation in an effort to convert the United States to a proper public health care system.
Posted by: John L. | June 01, 2007 at 01:02 PM
I passed on this article when published since it seemed like SSDD from USABC. (MLA -- Millikin Likes Acronyms.)
But, reading the commentary later was entertaining.
1) Joey, it's dongle, not dingle. Keep ranting!
2) Lee, well, we would know if you had agreed to go undercover, dress in drag and infiltrate. That was missed opportunity, sweetie.
3) Neil, all those USABC millions were for PCR (Preliminary Concept Readiness). P.S. Maybe some Gestalt therapy would help? (wicked grin) Keep ranting!
Posted by: jcwinnie | June 02, 2007 at 01:22 PM
Electric vehicles where batteries are used instead of a fuel cell in a skateboard fomat such as that on the GM Hywire along with its drive by wire system and in wheel electric motors would allow for many different cars to use identical and easily changeable components. Such a universal system would allow car companies to make many designs with minimal costs. The car companies could easily supply such cars now especially for the luxury market which can absorb the additional battery cost. Market them as fast, stylish and convenient and they will sell like mad. The a123 batteries are powerful, fast charging and long lasting. If the car companies dont know a good thing when they see it they, the american consumer and the environment will suffer for it.
Posted by: Dave | June 12, 2007 at 11:56 PM
It's too bad so many people are blinded by the BS that GM gives us. GM only gave us the EV1 after the California Air Resource Board forced them to. And they fought against it tooth and nail! Then, they took back the EV1's from people who didn't want to give them up. Then, they crushed them, every last one of them.
Well, Duh ! Does anyone really believe them when they say,"Just a few more years, we promise" ? Bull sh..
and more bull sh.. If anyone truly wants an affordable, all electric, consumer friendly, vehicle, then they have to work hard to get laws passed demanding it from the automakers. Otherwise, don't hold your breath. The automakers have already shown their true intentions, by their actions ! Good grief !
The all electric vehicle is our true answer to substantial reductions in carbon dioxide emissions. We could have it, in as little as one or two years, if GM wanted to. All GM has to do is start production of the EV1 again, utilizing the lithium-ion batteries. If GM demanded lithium-ion battery packs on a reasonable scale, they'd have them, and fast.
The whole story from GM and other US automakers is just a line of BS. All we are ever going to get is more excuses, and more sly attempts to give us something besides the all electric vehicle. The auto makers are all about greed.
The truth is, we've got to pass laws to get the all electric, affordable, consumer friendly, vehicle.
Posted by: Joe | December 29, 2007 at 06:11 PM
If the cost of the much awaited A123 battery for the chevy volt come down I think there may be hope. However if you look below the surface you will find that one of the companies involved in the product development is non other than Cobasy which is a subsidiary of Chevron technologies , these pigs were the ones who bought the intellectual patent rights from Stanley Oshinsky the developer of the nickel metal hydride battery in the 90's. This battery technology was used in the all electric vehicle the EV 1. The vehicles were scraped by GM shortly after the acquisition of those patent rights, big surprise huh. Currently Cobasys is in a legal battle with the production teem developed to produce the breakthrough discovery energy storage systems by a123 systems out of Watertown MA. Apparently Cobasys claims to be loosing their shirt and wants more money , they are attempting to slow the product development down through legal wrangling as usual this should not surprise anyone. It is quite obvious that until gasoline hits $5.00 or $6.00 a gallon the American people will continue to be fat, lazy, and apathetic in regards to what their federal government does or doesn't do in response to the obvious critical subject of energy and transportation. I fear the supermarket shelves will need to become bare for a couple of months(truckers strike) before they get of their corporate puppet jackasses and pass legislation to promote, produce, and enact electric vehicle mandates for infrastructure development and mandatory implementation of electric vehicle fleets for municipalities along with all government vehicles including the limousines they drive around in.
Posted by: mark | April 24, 2008 at 03:38 AM
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I read all your comments, and I honestly appreciate the words of moderation, consolation, and reassurance, as well as those of support. So lay these few facts out before yourselves:
-the EV1 and Rav4 were functioning in the 1990's using old NiMH battery technology.
-the car companies killed the programs citing 'lack of demand' when as we've all seen documented all too clearly in 'Who Killed the Electric Car', the demand was, and is ever more greatly, there.
-here we are, a decade later, with radical new technology/energy and power density in Li-ion batteries, and somehow, we still can't get even a decent plug-in hybrid electric. Note Bob's post above at 4:22 AM referring to the ICE parts and service racket that these harlett car companies are addicted to.
With these observations and others in mind, can anyone seriously say "oh, it's the technology, it's just not there yet"?
I resubmit to you that it is not the technology or the risks, or whatever. I mean, they can afford to produce new and ever more rediculous models of the same old crap over and over again, but they can throw a decent battery pack on it and a dingle?
The American car companies have sucked off of the tax payers nipple for a long time, and even then, due to there arrogance and incompetence, they are losing miserably to the Japanese. I think it is reasonable and right to criticize them for not yet producing the obvious and important, PHEV. Just give me 20 miles all electric and OPEC can kiss my ass!!!!!