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Cat 4 Cyclone Gonu Bearing Down on Oman

4 June 2007

Gonu
Cyclone Gonu is tracking toward the coast of Oman. Click to enlarge. Source: India Meteorological Department

An unusual category 4 tropical cyclone is heading directly for Oman and into the Gulf of Oman. Oman is a significant non-OPEC oil exporter, although its oil production has been declining.

In 2006, Oman produced an estimated 743,000 bbl/d of total oil liquids, about 5% less than 2005 levels according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). EIA forecasts that the Oman’s oil production will continue to decline in 2007 and 2008, with 2008 output dropping to 690,000 bbl/d, or 7% less than 2006 levels.

Oman consumed only 8.6% of the oil it produced in 2006, the remaining 679,000 bbl/d being exported. The country  maintains a major oil export terminal at Mina al-Fahal, near the capital Muscat on the northeast coast.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center notes that although the storm had increased intensity, it is showing initial signs of slight weakening as it moves over water with lower heat content. Dry air from the Arabian peninsula and then land effects after landfall on the northeast coast of Oman (Muscat) will weaken the storm further.

Current maximum significant wave height is currently 40 feet, and there is concern about the effects of storm surge on the oil facilities in Muscat. Discussion ongoing at The Oil Drum.

June 4, 2007 in Oil | Permalink | Comments (12) | TrackBack (0)

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It will be interesting to see what this storm does to Dubai, North of Oman. They have been in a fantastic building boom right on the beach.

They also have been building artifical islands offshore and selling them to very wealthy people - people who can drop $30M or so.

One home per island. Each islands seems to be about two acres and no more than six feet above sea level.

But the gulf there is well protected from the open sea and the storm will weaken.

UPDATE: AS OF 1 AM GREENWICH TIME 06/05/2007, Super Cyclonic Storm GONU IS A CAT5 EQUIVLENT.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt02A.html

Weird. This is happening in the Middle East?!

Oman is not much of a oil producers this storm is going to have little effect on global oil prices.

Big thread over on TOD.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2623#more

The potential issues are refineries in southwest Iran, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and disruption to production in Oman. It won't significantly affect the main oil production areas farther to the northwest.

Ben,
Right, but this storm is disrupting tanker traffic. Gonu is currently in the northern Arabian Sea, and close to the Gulf of Oman. It is either over or going to cross sea lanes used by oil tankers with cargo originating from Persian Gulf states (Iran, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain).

__Updated projections show the storm veering more towards the north, putting Iran, the Straits of Hormuz, and possibly even the Persian Gulf in its path. Watch this storm carefully. If it does hit Iran or the Persian Gulf, expect oil prices to spike.

Mother Nature has such a twisted sense of irony.

@allen xl z:

According to the link below, the storm is expected to weaken considerably over open water, making glancing landfall as a Cat 2 and then weakening further as it moves North into Iran. Still, the Eastern coast of Oman is where most of its people live. Heavy rainfall in the hinterland could lead to flash flooding, exacerbating the storm surge. The government has declared public holidays through Saturday so residents can prepare and/or evacuate the area.

The storm appears to be headed for landfall further South than had been predicted by authorities in the UK and is appears to be headed directly for the country's oil & gas production and logistics infrastructure.

http://forecast.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/shadow/tracker/dynamic/200702A.html
http://www.gulf-news.com/region/Oman/10130181.html
http://www.gregcroft.com/area4indexmap.ivnu

Im a student in Oman right now.My exam was postponed because of fiery mother nature.Its the first time that im personally seeing such strong winds and rain.Ive been awake since 12:15 A.M. just to watch the cyclone..its 11:30 A.M right now and the whole area has been flooded.Things are just flying around..plastic bags..chairs..tables..air-conditioner covers etc. are causing havoc banging into windsheilds of vehicles and small cars an wagons have been drowned till the chasis.The nearby mountains have been covered with clouds since early sunrise.there have been small streams of waterfalls coming from the tip of the mountains.At present the winds will be around 15-30 km/hr(just a wild guess)But God! Its really UNBELIVEABLE that this is happening in Oman!!

Cyclone gonu had done a devastating effect on infrastructure in Oman while the fierce of storm was little only. I am sure the wadis of oman will be taken special care in future to give a strong side walls in order to prevent flooding. Real estate industry is poised for a majoor shift from sea villas to safer lands and this will keep the fingers crossed of many of the seaside promoters. Let us wait and hear the comments of other friends.

site engineer-HVAC

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