"once current parameters such as driving range, required battery size and charge time are factored in"

I think this really says it all - Toyota isn't going to outright lie and say that their idea is better technologically. Instead they just seem to be stating the obvious - which is that they can get a basic Volt competitor out to market in a cheap, simple way without going back to the drawing board.

Bottom line: this was from a stockholder meeting, not a science fair.

Rafael, & Ziv,

One on the firm concepts that I have held for sometime is that the arrival of the PHEV will change the dynamics of much of the World, its politics, emissions, and prospects dramatically. The only issue preventing th entire world's population from achieving a Western lifestyle is the issue of Energy for transportation.

Rafael,

Like a true engineer, I too trust and believe in the incremental improvement approach. Many here seem to feel that there are breakthrough vehicles that will make or break, a given business. I do not think so, in this case. There is no monopolistic ability to prevent very similar offerings by others. Certainly the first to the party will achieve fame and profits, but the technology is not unique to either manufacturer, or any other.

Maybe Toyota or GM will have the first PHEV in 2010, but by 2012 every major manufacturer will have their own versions to offer, as well.

The World benefits when all the auto builders do so; then we can argue about the relative merits. I will simply offer this paraphrased quotation from Dr Andy Frank. "...The best PHEV is the one with the biggest battery and smallest gen set...".

Series PHEVs are simpler but in the transition period, with still expensive batteries, maybe Toyota is correct. Perhaps the Toyota approach will prove superior by measures of early cost/power trade offs.

Rafael,

I was surprised at the expressed vehemence of your opposition to Light Water GEN III+ fission reactors. Don't foreget that I too wasan early pbut pricipled critic to the second generation of Nukes being built in the late 60s and 70s. Teh weren't contructed well, the ocntrol systmes had neve rrally been tested and NO on ehad doen a tes tot destruction of a LOC condition. Now those concerns have been answered to my satisfaction.

I urge you to research the technology, once again. I do not advocate any follow on generation of fission reactors. Those would operate too close to the edge, but the passive GEN III+ are superior to what runs today, by two mesureable orders of magnitude. These GEN II+ designs are now very massively passive, no longer requiring near instantaneous operator response and control. GE advises that its passive ESBWR can shut itself down completely unattended, and operaiting unattended for as for as long as three days. They will serve the intermediate transition years between Oil and Fusion. I think that Sub-Critical Actinide burner accelerators will be chosen to transmute and reduce the quantities of long lived, highly radioactive wastes. Even without reprocessing, which we will do, and Actinide burning, the entire quantity of the US century long usage of Fission will amount to a volume that would fit on the playing area of a single football field. To say that we can't find anywhere in the world or under it, to entomb that small volume for no longer thousands but only a few hundred years, is absurd.

Also, by choosing a configuration that ultimately derives the vast majority of its energy from fossil fuels, Toyota isn't going to win any favors with the environmentalist crowd.

Ziv,

I try to look forward to the predictable technology changes and how that effects politics and the world history. The Electrification of Ground Transport is definitely one such Earth changing technology. If the first PHEVs come in 2010, the flood will build over the decade. The comparison of price, $3.00+ per gallon versus $.75 per gallon equivalent will drive adoption. By 2020, the demand for motor fuels, gasoline, diesel, ethanol or bio-diesel will start to fall dramatically.

People just do not realize how much petroleum is a one customer-industry-application product. Up wards of 80% of all petroleum is used for Transportation. If the 2020 PHEV is approaching 60 miles, then US petroleum demand will be met entirely domestically. Many an ethanol, and bio-diesel company will go bankrupt. Most of the Middle East can return to the Arab tribes warring amongst themselves with no one else caring very much.

The need to fight for Oil to jeep the world from plunging into Depression will be over. Some secondary high production cost production sources like the Canadian oil sand ventures and Venezuela heavy Oils will be pushed to the wall, reminiscent of the Syn Fuels Corp. of the Carter years.

Electricity to power the PHEV flood can be met initially by running the fossil peaking plants, (old dirtier coal, oil and Gas) at a higher percentage of the time, under load. But the economics of the that production profile will generate a utility base load building boom. Rafael won't like it but the economics of base load generation choices is pretty clear. The higher the load factor, the more Nukes win out. Electrical utilities will be constructing lots of GEN III+ nukes to replace the over used peaking fossil plants. As they come online, Utilities emissions will drop, some more.

From a pollution standpoint, the USA will have achieved clean air everywhere by 2010 or 2012, no later. We are clsoe now; ther are few unattainment aresa even now. The rest of the world will suddenly discover that their air comes into compliance even with their laggard standards, because the volume of emission will just plunge.

Now many of you simply are not as sanguine as I am about CO2. I do read all the Science papers and not the summaries. I am convinced previous fears while valid, have been massively and persuasively allayed.

But it doesn't matter. All the other GHGs gases are now in control. CO2 outputs will plunge and it will come into control without fancy taxes nor debilitating economic measures. It will happen by 2020 due to the mere acceptance of the PHEV.

I know by the truth will be widely accepted by 2012, so we won't care any more. If you don't think it is hooey, as I do, it won't matter. CO2 emission will plunge under the combined effect of massive new carbon free Nukes generating electricity and autos not producing but 10% of present carbon dioxide output volumes. Global Warming dies as an issue either way.

The word around Detroit is that a lithium ion battery on a prototype Volt exploded last week. GM engineers are upset and urgently working on determining the cause and resolution.
The Volt is said to be thoudands more expensive than a Prius. Even the PHEV Prius with enlarged NMH battery will still be considerably less expensive than the system in the Volt.

"The word around Detroit is that a lithium ion battery on a prototype Volt exploded last week"

First off, there are no functional prototype Volts driving around - so this rumor is rather dubious.

Secondly the batteries they've selected to use are widely used in the power tool industry, and have an inherently safe chemistry:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A9ayuFBDrSg

Thirdly, the hype about battery prices is largely just fud. The materials in lithium iron phosphate batteries are both cheaper and less toxic than the cobalt-based ones currently used in the laptop and cellphone industry - so bringing the cost below $700 per kWh is largely one depending on mass production and economies of scale.

Hmm Sounds like an urbane myth. I'm not saying its impossible, but it would take something pretty drastic to get the A123 batteries to explode (based on the chemistry and the experience of the killacycle's batteries use/abuse). Speaking of rumors, I've heard that GM will dance around the cost of the battery by leasing that portion of the car.

Two different ways to achieve Plug-in vechicle.

Toyota's approach: Gas engine dominant Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle based from the proven HSD design with durable NiMH battery pack. Toyota can spend more time on refine the award winning design. Why did Toyota decided to test with double the pack? Think bipolar. Bipolar NiMH pack will not add much weight, volume or cost.

GM's approach: Battery dominant Plug-in Electric Vehicle based from the series hybrid design with exploding Li-ion in public's mind. Although A123 cells will be extremely safe, public will not be able to get over it like the diesel black smoke. That image will be there and it needs some major PR battle. Volt will be built from ground up and time is not in favor to do refinement. Where will cabin heat come from? etc.. 10 years is a very long time to catch up....

Many of you are saying 8 miles is not enough. Think about it for a second. If you are going further than 4 miles radius from your home, you will jump on the highway. At highway speed, gas engine (particularly Atkinson cycle) can perform at the most efficient load. Why would you recharge Volt battery for 90 mins (120v @ 20amp) to drive 20 mins (60mph @ 11.2kwh) on the highway?

In another words, Toyota's assessment for the most efficient use of electric or gas is more realistic. In the city driving, use electric because gas engine is not efficient. On the other hand, gas engine's efficiency shines on the highway. That idea is one of the most fundamental concept behind HSD. The more electric Prius can use, the less gas it will consume. Hence, the MPG will skyrocket. You can see all three Prius generations in this pattern. As electric motors and battery output become more powerful, MPG and performance gets higher and higher (1997->2000->2004 MY).

If PHV needs cabin heat, it can turn on the gas engine instead of using battery power.

The Volt is more PR than practical solution.
Its 16-kwh battery pack can supply enough battery packs for 10 HEV battery packs of 1.6 kwh capacity, or 12 of Prius' 1.3 kwh packs.

The main bottleneck in mass production of HEV's (and of future PHEV's) is availability of battery packs,
whereas the ICE and gears and clutches for a parallel-serial hybrid arrangement like the Prius can be produced by tens of millions yearly without limitation.
THE uncertainty in the future of HEV and PHEV is how cheap and how fast can batteries be produced, and whether there'll be sufficient raw material without price escalation similar to that of Nickel, upon mass production of NiMh HEV batteries.

Ergo, GM should put their priority in producing the most efficient and the most cost-effective HEV's that uses the least amount of battery that can sell in the largest numbers, instead of the other way around, gambling on the uncertainty of how cheaply A123 Nanotech lithium can be mass-produced.
Redesign and get rid of the BAS system with something approaching a "full-hybrid", like the Audi or the Peugeot system...The dual-mode system looks promising, albeit expensive...and any plan to put it inside a practical family car like the Malibu?

Then, once you have the most efficient HEV, you can run it with any alternative, non-petroleum fuels and achieve energy security, and overall energy efficiency on par with BEV. Offer a plugged-in NG version that can be charged...uh...filled up... at home...following what Germany, Pakistan, Iran, Argentina, etc. have done...Brazilians would be content to run their HEV's on sugarcane ethanol and achieve renewable-energy transportation, on par with PHEV's or BEV's getting their electricity from strictly solar or wind.

If you commute say like me 66 miles a day, lets look at the mileage between the prius plug-in hybrid, the volt and a theoretical EV with 100+ miles range.
Prius PHEV:~50mpg gas + 8 miles at 125mpg equivalents = ~60mph
Volt PHEV:~50mpg gas + 40 miles at 125mpg equivalents = ~88mpg
BEV:~125mpg

If batteries were 10 times better than they are, then series hybrids (such as the proposed Volt) would be the no-brainer choice. But storing energy at densities approaching those of chemical bonds without doing it chemically is really hard. Toyota is being realistic about the state of battery art and not overly optimistic about how quickly the art will advance.

Rafael,
“The regular Prius is shipping today whereas the Volt is vaporware.”

You are way off the mark calling the Volt “vaporware”.

At this point, they have a very dedicated team, including many engineers and others, working on the Volt project, as well as Bob Lutz, Vice Chairman, talking about the Volt every other week. Last week, Bloomberg News reported that GM is planning to build 60,000 Volts the first year, which will allow them to keep their costs where the were targeting.

They also have published pretty detailed specs of the car. The battery that they are using is a 16 kWh Lithium nanophosphate cathode battery. They have selected a battery supplier, (A123 Systems), who says they have the battery chemistry that can perform to GM’s specs and price range, and who is currently hiring more people for the Volt project. A123 has partnered with Continental AG, who will provide the battery management of the pack.

GM has begun advertising the Volt in two target markets, Detroit and San Francisco. Additionally, they have put out press releases several times monthly discussing the Volt progress. You may want to read some of the information they have published. For example, on June 21st, Dr. Bart Riley, VP of R&D and CTO of A123 Systems, the company GM chose to produce batteries for the Volt, discussed some specifics of the battery, and how they plan to provide the volumes GM will need.

There is much information on the Volt, and it is great for me, a PHEV enthusiast, to catch up on the latest, at least twice per month. I could go on, and on. Below is a list of GM execs that, according to GM, are involved in the Volt project, or, as you call it, the Volt Vaporware:

Rick Wagoner, President and CEO
Bob Lutz, Vice Chairman
Jon Lauckner, VP of Global Program Management
Beth Lowery, VP for Energy and Environment
Larry Burns, VP of Research and Development
Bob Boniface, Director of Advanced Design
Anne Asensio, Director of Advanced Design
Tony Posawatz, Director Vehicle Line
Nick Zielinski, Volt Chief Engineer
Denise Gray, Director of Hybrid Energy Storage Systems
Micky Bly, Director Hybrid Vehicle Integration

You should talk to Nick Zielinski, Volt Chief Engineer, who is one of many people, busting their butts every day to get the Volt into showrooms by 2010. Maybe you know more than he does about the project?

Lets face it, Rafael, there is a lot more substantive information about the Volt available than the PHEV Prius. So would you call Toyota’s PHEV project, “Vaporware”, as well?

@George K:
I'm impressed with your inside knowledge and it is very informative; also, let me say that GCC is a great experience for all of us who visit often. It is especially health to read comments from people who discuss differences; but, conduct themselves as gentle people and keep the debate on subject without straying into name-calling.

Thanks to Mike for his hard work on the site! Good Information is knowledge and knowledge is power. I urge everyone reading here to share you knowledge with your every day friends so we all can help move our industries in the right direction for the good of the country.

"I have to admit that I am incredibly biased"
Say no more Ziv. That right there puts much of what you say in doubt and challenges the credibility of any comments you make about Toyota's system.

I find it funny that some of you think the PROTOTYPE plug-in Prius is a vehicle that Toyota is "pushing" against the Volt. That is wrong. What Toyota is pushing is it's own approach to hybrid vehicles. Notice that Toyota does not specifically mentions the Volt anywhere, but broadly describes a system just like what the E-Flex uses.

The plug-in Prius is a PROTOTYPE for a reason. Toyota is doing some public road tests with it to gather information that Toyota will use to develop the actual production plug-in. I will say right now that the Gen 3 Prius itself will have an electric cruising range of over 8 miles, and the plug-in production car from Toyota will have way over 8 miles cruising range in electric mode.

George K, you have mentioned nothing more than the hype and boasting that GM has done about the Volt, something which we already know about.

Let's keep in mind GM is targeting late 2010 as the time when the Volt will be on-sale. The Gen 3 Prius goes on sale way before that. Toyota's estimated timeframe for using Li-ion in the Prius is 2010-2011. If the Volt gets delayed, it will be bad news for GM and the hype will have died off.

I love this part of the process

GM do have a winner if they can deliver it

Toyota does have an installed position, and is on the defensive

This is what the free market economy is all about, I would much rather have Toyota and GM fighting over the best architecture for fuel economy, than have them fighting over the best truck towing capacity.

It will take a long time to change the direction of the automotive industry, but there are signs here of the process starting.

you can buy now a 20kwh Zebra battery for about 10000 euros
from Mes-Dea in switzerland , battery comes in a pack with all
managment hardware onboard , and weighs 168kg .

life of battery is around 200000 to 250000 miles , it also works
in the cold , something lithium has a hard time with !

even if the vehicles do make it to market, a battery-powered plug-in may be no more efficient in reducing carbon dioxide emissions than the current charge-sustaining gas-electric hybrids on the road today.

A true statement which many PHEV advocates have trouble admitting.

Japan never put out a good idea but were able to copy, execute, and implement hardware well.

What a nonsensical notion that is. Who came out first with hybrids? It wasn't an American company. There's countless other examples.

it's a damn sight better than the 40ish mpg that the current Prius actually gets in real life

In real life, it gets 48, which is "50ish," not "40ish."

Also, by choosing a configuration that ultimately derives the vast majority of its energy from fossil fuels, Toyota isn't going to win any favors with the environmentalist crowd.

What percentage of US electricity comes from fossil fuels? The vast majority. And most of it is the highest-CO2-intensity, dirtiest fossil fuel out there -- coal.

as well as Bob Lutz, Vice Chairman, talking about the Volt every other week

Yes, Bob Lutz is very good at talking.

With all the talk of PHEVs and alternative fuels, let us remember that oil is natural. It doesn't need to be invented. It's in the ground, it is being held captive in more ways than one but will be freed shortly. All we need is faith. Faith in the fuel that GOD gave us - not some scientist. When all else fails, nature and faith are all you have. Oil companies have rights too. Oil companies create jobs, donate money to charity and keep the economy moving. Who will pay the unemployment insurance when the entire US Military is laid off when PHEVs take off? Vote NO to "alternatives" Vote YES to whats already here - faith and nature.

@ LatteLiberal:

You're kidding, right?!

wrt Prius vs Volt.
What if Toyota just desided that Lithium batteries aren't ready for MY 2008, but need to get a revamped Prius out on the market to keep momentum and fend of competition. That does not stop them from pursuing a Lithium parallel or series hybrid for the next generation, e.g. MY 2012 - around the same time at the Volt will/may have hit the market.

Furthermore, as someone rightly said, it doesn't matter much (for sales) who puts out the first series hybrid. What matters is who delivers the best package. I don't care much about who made the first diesel - I care about who makes the best one today. (the PSA 1.6 HDi is a solid candidate - at an affordable price)

Meanwhile, for every Prius that gets sold, the environment and energy security is improved a little bit.

As a European with a 55 mile all-highway commute each way, my best option is my carpool with a 3.5 passenger average (including driver) driving diesel cars with 45-55 mpg on the highway.

Hiya,

Why this focus on Volt & Prius, when there's http://www.zapworld.com/electric-vehicles/electric-cars/zap-x ?

I'm follwing the drive train manufacturer (http://www.pmlflightlink.com/archive/news_mini.html)
and know there'll be a leading EU-OEM in the Frankfurt autoshow, making this technology main stream.

This is crucial: let the OEM's keep their USP's and deliver _drive trains_ to them, or anyone else able/willing to retrofit existing -fleets of- vehicles.

And thereby reducing dependency, conflict, wasting resources, pollution, political/governance mediocricity

Next steps: fill'r up with http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concentrated_Solar_Power and connect to the grid where you can for http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/V2g

Ask http://www.google.org/recharge/ to adopt all this and see how many hearts the West can win in Iraq or any other region the West has problematic relations with..

Emil Möller, Maastricht, Netherlands

ps: thank you Prius, Volt, Phoenix, Think, Miles, Honda for your softening up of the market, but this is the next iteration of the EV as harbinger of an all electric society

@AES

As for "drivetrain losses" - I'm not sure where you're getting that idea, considering the sparse gear reduction needed, plus the fact that AC motors can commonly achieve over 90% efficiency. Are you referring to the dynamo/electric generator itself, and not the ICE? Or to the minimal energy lost in running the electricity through the battery?

You make it sound like a serial hybrid powertrain has a compound efficiency of 90%. But you forget a few things. First you need a generator AND a motor. A real-world efficiency of 90% for each of them seems a good guess, bringing the net efficiency to 81%. I don't have figures of LiIon battery efficiency, I believe a maximum 95% (real world) would be quite a good educated guess. Furthermore you do not mention the electronics necessary to regulate all this. Let's say 95% is an equally good guess. Multiplying it all brings met to a total efficiency a little over 70%.

What few people seem to know is that the Prius drivetrain is mechanically very simple. It does not have a gearbox or clutch. In fact, the only extra it has compared to a series hybrid is a simple planetary gearset. If this can improve drive train efficiency from say, 75% to 90%, then it is a no-brainer.

I am open to correction on this, as I like the discussion about serial vs parallel hybrid.

An interesting debate on comparing VOLT and PriusPHEV. As a HEV lover and a Engineer from India where we don't expect to own any of them here in the near future, let me offer my comments.
At least in theory a series hybrid combination of engine and electric motor will be less efficient than a similar Parallel hybrid configuration in power trans mission. But when we take in to consideration the system in totality as a practical Car using these technologies there are many other factors that come into play making the whole issue very very complicated.If we take the efficiency of an engine and elctric motor coupling, it will be less that the efficiency of a the engine alone, but since VOLT will depend more on electrically stored energy overall that could make up the difficieny to the extend depending on how much stored energy is used for the drive. Admittedly a series drive is simpler and cost less in every aspect, but here also the deciding factor will be the storage battery characteristics, it cost, durability and safety as it will have be a bigger one than the one used in Parallel PHEV.
So I hope we should only wait for two of the biggest car manufactures in the world to fight it out in the market, and one of them may be coming a awinner ultimately.Let us not forget at stake is the reputaion of these giants. We have many previous example of reputed companies competing each other over differet technologies and finally one coming out as the winner.

...short comment on the religious palaver. There is still an argument going on who worships the stronger god or has got his message correctly. It would not matter but the problem is, that the opposing clans are sitting on areas with hardly any or lots of oil. If I got it correctly, this god-idea may be behind the creation of oil. Halewhat?

No to serious matters:
To compare both approaches, Toyota´s and GM´s, we have to focus on the weel to wheel analyse. Until now, overall efficiency of energy power plants are not very impressive. But the technology is there to have an almost 50% efficience in fossil fuel power plants. If we would use the waste thermo energy, it would further help.

But there is another problem. Look into the toy market. Model plans and cars are more and more loaded with very high electrical energy systems.

Since this is easy to do, we will see the same at cars and trucks. So, in the near future, 500kw EV could be a common thing. I have my doubts, wheather we decrease the all around fuel consumption of our vehicles with the future EV until we implement some strict laws about it.

There is another point I want to make. Some chaps said that enineering should develop step by step. I think, it is good to have a paradigmen shift from time to time. Imagine, Brits and Germans would not have introduced turbine technology in air transport and we would still fly around with piston engine propeled aircraft...
Sometimes it needs two steps beyond the familiar.

Btw, here is another approch how to get rid of the gearbox (an secure oil supplies):
http://navy-matters.beedall.com/daring1-1.htm

...short comment on the religious palaver. There is still an argument going on who worships the stronger god or has got his message correctly. It would not matter but the problem is, that the opposing clans are sitting on areas with hardly any or lots of oil. If I got it correctly, this god-idea may be behind the creation of oil. Halewhat?

No to serious matters:
To compare both approaches, Toyota´s and GM´s, we have to focus on the well to wheel analyse. Until now, overall efficiency of energy power plants are not very impressive. But the technology is there to have an almost 50% efficience in fossil fuel power plants. If we would use the waste thermo energy, it would further help.

But there is another problem. Look into the toy market. Model plans and cars are more and more loaded with very high electrical energy systems.

Since this is easy to do, we will see the same at cars and trucks. So, in the near future, 500kw EV could be a common thing. I have my doubts, wheather we decrease the all around fuel consumption of our vehicles with the future EV until we implement some strict laws about it.

There is another point I want to make. Some chaps said that enineering should develop step by step. I think, it is good to have a paradigmen shift from time to time. Imagine, Brits and Germans would not have introduced turbine technology in air transport and we would still fly around with piston engine propeled aircraft...
Sometimes it needs two steps beyond the familiar.

Btw, here is another approch how to get rid of the gearbox (an secure oil supplies):
http://navy-matters.beedall.com/daring1-1.htm

An interesting discussion. First, will the Volt get better mileage than the third generation Prius due out in early 2008? Not significantly. The Prius will probably average about 52 MPG overall, up 15% from the current 45 MPH. The Volt may average close to 55 MPH.

Now as for All Electric Range, the mileage figure being tossed around here is 4 miles per KWH, which is very high. In actual tests, fleet averages got about 2 to 2.5 miles per KWH. So I expect the real number will be close to 3 miles per KWH, no more than 3.5 miles per KWH average performance.

If we use 3 MPK, and we use the 8 KWH available in the Volt for AER, according to some reports, then the AER is 24 miles, not 40 miles. And if we assume that 2 KWH is available in the plug-in Prius being tested, we get an AER of 6 miles.