« DOE to Award $197M to First Three Large-Scale Carbon Sequestration Projects | Main | LS9 Secures $15M Series B Funding »
King Review of Low-Carbon Cars Issues Interim Analytical Report; 50% Cut in UK Transport CO2 Emissions Per Km Possible by 2030
9 October 2007
![]() |
| A pathway towards decarbonizing road transport. Click to enlarge. |
Per-kilometer emissions from road transport in the UK could be reduced by 50% by 2030 at low cost, according to the interim analytical report issued by Professor Julia King as part of the independent King Review of low-carbon cars in the UK. This 50% reduction would be partly offset by the projected increase in distance travelled, implying an overall reduction in UK emissions from car use of approximately 30% by 2030.
The review states that there is no single solution, but that these reductions could be obtained through more efficient vehicles; cleaner fuels; and smart driver choices—i.e., buying low-carbon cars.
The review, operated out of HM Treasury (UK), is tasked with examining the vehicle and fuel technologies which over the next 25 years could help to decarbonize road transport, particularly cars. It is led by Professor Julia King, Vice-Chancellor of Aston University and former Director of Advanced Engineering at Rolls-Royce plc, working with Sir Nicholas Stern, author of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change in October 2006. (Earlier post.)
![]() |
| The King Review framework for assessing CO2 emissions from cars. Click to enlarge. |
Part I: the potential for CO2 reduction, the interim King Review report, sets out the environmental challenge for road transport and looks at the scope for emissions savings from more efficient vehicle technologies, cleaner fuels and smart consumer choices. It uses a framework with four key factors for considering the total CO2 emissions from cars: fuel CO2 efficiency; vehicle efficiency; driving efficiency; and distance travelled.
This is a major challenge: urgent and sizeable. This review does not set targets for the road transport sector. Instead it focuses on what can be achieved, through strong action now, towards the long-term decarbonization of cars. Even in the short term, we can achieve significant reductions in CO2 emissions through use of technologies that are already available, and by making smart choices, as individuals, about what, when and how to drive.
—The King Review
Other initial findings of the initial report are that:
Urgent progress is needed from road transport to help meet emission cuts for the developed world of 60-80 per cent by 2050 outlined in the Stern Review.
In the long-term (possibly by 2050 in the developed world), almost complete decarbonization of road transport is a possibility. If substantial progress can be made in solving electric vehicle technology challenges and, critically, the power-sector can be decarbonized and expanded to supply a large proportion of road transport demand, around a 90% reduction per kilometer emissions would be achievable across the fleet. If the rate of road transport growth continues, and road use in the UK approximately doubles by 2050, this could deliver an 80% in total road transport CO2 emissions, relative to 2000 levels.
All fuels—including gasoline and diesel—must be considered on the basis of their life-cycle CO2 emissions. Even conventional fuels can be produced in a variety of ways, with very different CO2 impacts.
Biofuels, in moderation, offer potential advantages over conventional fuels and can occupy part of the transport fuels market over the medium term. But an over-reliance on biofuels, particularly in these early stages, could be counter-productive, putting the world’s environmental resources under pressure. Along with biodiesel and ethanol, the review considers biobutanol and bio-methane.
In the long term, carbon-free road transport fuel is the only way to achieve an 80-90% reduction in emissions, essentially “decarbonization”. Given biofuels supply constraints, this will require a form of electric vehicle, with novel batteries, charged by “zero-carbon” electricity (or, possibly, hydrogen produced from zero-carbon sources).
Achieving low-carbon electricity generation is essential to a long-term goal of decarbonizing road transport. This will create extra demand for electricity and ensuring this is supplied from low- CO2 will require further significant progress towards carbon-free electricity generation. This will be a major challenge, especially in the light of long planning and commissioning timescales for power plants.
Significant reductions, of the order of 30%, in emissions from internal combustion engines are technically feasible for cars entering production within the next 5-10 years. This is achievable provided the emissions reducing potential of this technology is not simply eroded by the trend to purchase larger vehicles with more energy-consuming features. These technologies would add to the production cost of vehicles, but any increase could be recovered in fuel savings over the life of the vehicle. However, such vehicles will not come to market across a wide range of vehicle types unless sufficient consumer demand can be demonstrated. The biggest challenge is to ensure that manufacturers see an international market for these vehicles and are prepared to produce them on a large scale.
In the medium term, electric-hybrid vehicle technology probably offers the best prospect of reducing CO2 emissions further. In the longer term, it is more difficult to forecast which technologies will prevail, technically or commercially. Battery-electric cars seem a logical engineering solution, emitting no pollutants when driven and with a very low overall CO2 footprint if the electricity used to charge the battery is generated sustainably. However, significant advances in battery science and technology need to be delivered. Hydrogen, if generated sustainably, could be another clean way of supplying energy in a vehicle. Challenges for hydrogen-powered vehicles include sustainable hydrogen generation and distribution, hydrogen storage and system cost.
Consumer choices are important in maximizing the impact of progress in vehicle and fuel technologies. They can also make a big impact in their own right. If consumers make careful choices about the type of model they buy, and the way in which they use their cars, they could substantially reduce their emissions. These changes can start immediately.
The next stage of the Review will develop recommendations on how Government can play a role in decarbonizing transport, reporting in early 2008.
(A hat-tip to Jamie!)
Resources:
October 9, 2007 in Electric (Battery), Engines, Fuel Efficiency, Fuels, Hybrids, Hydrogen | Permalink | Comments (19) | TrackBack (0)
Comments
Posted by: John Baldwin | October 09, 2007 at 01:19 PM
Note: "decarbonize" = code for a nuclear power revival, because renewables can only do so much at affordable prices.
Some of you may feel that the environmental damage plus safety and proliferation risks inherent in nuclear technology are preferable to those posed by CO2 emissions and dependence on Russian/OPEC oil. There are arguments pro and con on both sides of this argument. It's just telling that the nuclear industry feels it needs to hide behind euphemisms like "decarbonize".
Personally, I don't think nuclear is an acceptable option as long as there is no high-capacity permanent repository for highly radioactive waste anywhere in the world. That may be mostly a political issue, but that makes it no less real.
Posted by: Rafael Seidl | October 09, 2007 at 01:29 PM
Dr. Robert Bussard died on Oct. 6.
Fortunately, the Navy re-funded the project back in August. Work on the Polywell Fusor will continue, with the construction of the next test article.
Posted by: Cervus | October 09, 2007 at 01:47 PM
There is more than on way to get low carbon energy. Wind, Solar, Geothermal and Hydro come to mind. My favorite is PV solar, but take your pick.
Once you have clean energy you just need to build an electric vehicle. Rode mine to work today www.zevutah.com
The cost is not as much as you might think. You just have to be willing to build it yourself because the car companies are not providing electrics at this time.
Posted by: zevutah | October 09, 2007 at 02:05 PM
@ Rafael,
The physical amount of high level radioactive waste from one more generation of fission reactors is relatively minuscule. All the US high level waste would fit on a single football pitch only a few feet high, over thier life expectancy. that i sjust not a large volume ot handle. Burying it in a mountain mine surrounding Death Valley is a valid solution, especially in light of the history of the waste in natural fission reactor discovered in the Congo.
One of the best solutions that I have seen is a subcritical "actinide burner" particle accelerator. It could process all the high level waste and convert it to wastes that would be safe after a mere few hundred years. I have always felt that recycling and burning MOX is a necessary pre-rerquisite to any waste disposal strategy. Waste repositories need to remain undisturbed. If there is fissile material to be "mined" it virtually guarantees that the repositories will be disturbed. I 'd call it the Pharoah's curse. It would be just like putting the Pharoah's gold into his pyramid tomb.
It is only inviting mischief.
Posted by: Stan Peterson | October 09, 2007 at 02:49 PM
I think it depends on what you mean by highly radioactive - most stations leave it in ponds till it "cools" down.
Then you could vitrify it and bury it somewhere dry and deep, like the place in Finland that is being build.
It is a question of political will and courage rather than engineering. The Finns may have this, the Irish, for instance do not.
Aside from nuclear, if you get a decent battery technology, you make wind, wave and solar much more viable.
For cars, we may need to get people to rethink what a car is, and select something much smaller and lighter for single person commuting, say the size of a Smart or a C1/Aygo etc, [ but not a zap ] (even a Yaris).
If people insist on using 3 tonne vehicles to bring a single person to work we are doomed.
There are so many ways to slim down while keeping a roof over your head and a crumple zone in front of you, without taking 3 tonnes to work.
It is reminds me of the comment from Jared Diamond's "Collapse" on the people of Easter island - "what were they thinking when they cut down the last tree" ?
Posted by: mahonj | October 09, 2007 at 02:54 PM
"One of the best solutions that I have seen is a subcritical "actinide burner" particle accelerator. It could process all the high level waste and convert it to wastes that would be safe after a mere few hundred years."
something like the Integral Fast Reactor ( http://www.nationalcenter.org/NPA378.html ) would be better, and has the advantage over the subcritical reactor that it isn't purely theoretical. the expense of building a particle accelerator for each and every subcritical plant would almost certainly be prohibitive.
Posted by: gavin walsh | October 09, 2007 at 05:07 PM
It is hard to imagine that we will solve the global warming problem only with solutions that are not proven to day (like hydrogen or CCS) well I mean to bet only on future solutions to solve today (and tomorrow) problem is a risky business. That's why a credible program of reduction of GHG should be mainly based on robust foreseeable solutions : Energy conservation will the main contribution to reduction of GHG emissions, through fuel efficient vehicle (smaller, lighter, streamlined, improved ICE) better insulation in house, less beef in our plate. Technology like PHEV, alternative fuel, CCS, Solar, wind will help but will be marginal in the next 20 years.
Posted by: Treehugger | October 09, 2007 at 09:42 PM
Rafael, a new wave of nukes is unfortunately a done deal in the UK. The government has just closed a sham "consultation" knowing full well what the decision would be.
The nuclear industry has executed one of the most impressive PR campaigns ever and pulled the wool over our politicians' eyes in spectacular style.
The UK has one of the largest wave resources in the world, the largest offshore wind resource in Europe, the largest tidal resource in Europe. Instead we're going nuclear. It's a very sad day indeed.
Posted by: Scatter | October 10, 2007 at 01:58 AM
But with regards to this report, it's confirming what we all know (and what the car manufacturers continue to lie about), and that is that it doesn't cost anything to cut emissions from cars. All it takes is for people to choose low carbon cars over high carbon cars.
In the UK if everyone opted for the cleanest cars in their market segment tomorrow, it would shave around 30% off average new car CO2 emissions bringing them down from 167g/km to about 117g/km. And this is for vehicles that are available today. There is now a good and attractive selection of lower carbon cars out there (BMW 5 Series @ 136, Renault Megane @ 117, Polo Bluemotion @ 99).
For consumers to want to choose low carbon cars, the manufacturers have to increase the number of green options out there and actually make a vague attempt to market them properly. They've got to make it an aspiration for everyone to own a clean car.
Posted by: Scatter | October 10, 2007 at 04:46 AM
@ Scatter -
(a) Most consumers are selfish. They want the largest car, with the biggest engine and the most luxury goodies they can afford. Doing the right thing for the common good is typically waaaaaay down the list. Sad but true.
(b) Car makers only have one chance every few years to sell you a product. Naturally, they want to maximize revenue and profit on each sale. Generally, small car = small profit.
Plus, in Western Europe, new vehicle sales are stagnant or declining, largely because of decades of negative population growth in a number of countries - there is no way to substantially increase unit volume except in emerging markets. However, those generally require much simpler, cheaper designs.
So car makers are not lying, they are just acting rationally in their own business interest. Unfortunately, that happens not to coincide with the public policy interest right now. Politicians will have to move the goal posts to align them.
Posted by: Rafael Seidl | October 10, 2007 at 06:19 AM
What you say is true at the moment but these priorities can and will change through progressive government policies and because of the slow sea change in public attitudes that is going on right now.
But I believe the manufacturers are lying because they keep on insisting that in order to manufacture lower emission cars it will cost the consumer more. This is not true - the average consumer will save money by buying a low carbon car. It will reduce the manufacturers' profits (boohooo) but it will save the consumer money both in the capital and running costs.
I should add I'm not talking about the luxury/sports/executive end of the market as they don't impact greatly on average CO2 (we should just tax the hell out of them).
I'm talking about the cars normal people buy - the superminis, lower and upper mediums, MPVs. These are where the real savings in average CO2 can be made at no cost to the consumer.
Posted by: Scatter | October 10, 2007 at 06:37 AM
It's very simple, put a carbon tax on fuel, and use the money to increase the tax-free part of the income. Nobody could object, since low-carbon people will gain more than they loose, while high-carbon people will pay the bill.
Posted by: Alain | October 10, 2007 at 08:38 AM
Here in Minnesota, nearly 90% of vehicles have only one occupant in them at any time. We use automobiles primarily as personal transportation pods. However, present day vehicles are designed for multiple uses and higher duty rates than we actually use them, thus, on average we use a 4,000 pound machine to move a 200 pound payload.
Fuel use is directly correlated to mass and air resistance. Let's set aside, for now, commercial and high duty vehicle use and focus on the auto's role as a transportation pod.
If vehicles most often carry only one or two people, with minimal cargo, then we need a new class of vehicle, one that will satisy 80% of transportation needs. Radically reducing the size of the primary vehicle could make 60 g/km achievable with existing technology. The standard car or van of today then becomes the secondary vehicle. Such a vehicle could be leased as needed rather than bought.
Keep an eye on the Mitsubishi iCar and the Volkswagen Up! By moving the engine away from the front of the car, design for crash force absorption is simplified for a small car.
If 80% of road miles are done by vehicles with very high fuel efficiency, total liquid fuel demand then drops to a level that sustainable liquid biofuel production from perennial plants (which also sequester carbon as part of their life cycle) enters the realm of the possible. Since biomass plants take their carbon from the atmosphere, fuel produced from them is essentially carbon neutral.
It is the efficiency of the entire system that is critical. Hydrogen fuel cells are efficient, but the hydrogen delivery system is not. Electricity is efficient, but storage and delivery are not. Nuclear, in addition to having waste problems, is another finite, mined fuel. At some point we have to bite the bullet and transition to sustainable energy use. We might as well do it now.
Posted by: fred schumacher | October 10, 2007 at 08:39 AM
Scatter, I hope you're right, and they start building a lot of nukes. We will need all the carbon-free energy we can to decarbonise the economy.
Electricity is only about 1/3 of our actual energy needs. Even this third is only for a small part carbon-free. The two other parts (heating, industry, transport) are completely fossil-fuel.
If we could replace the electricity part by [wave, wind, solar,...] it would already be marvelous. But that's only one third of the road.
Since we need also carbon-free transport, heating and industry, the nukes will be essential.
Whenever England would produce more carbon-free energy than it needs, it could start making carbon-neutral fuels for export. (biomass + H2 ---> much fuel).
In France, nuclear fuel is recycled many times, producing much less waste. It is done now, but since new uranium is so cheap, it is not economical compared to just dumping the waste. If we are willing to pay the small price for recycling the waste fuel, the nuclear waste problem is even smaller than it is now (compared to the CO2-waste problem)
Posted by: Alain | October 10, 2007 at 08:48 AM
@ Scatter,
Despite your urgings for coercive societal changes and moaning about vehicles, too bloated for your tastes. But these vehicles offer the flexibility for most consumers, and so they choose them. Your emphasis is misplaced.
We have already solved the CO2 problem that you still envision. By the results of the 2005 Energy Plan that has re-invigorated the GEN III+ nuclear business. That will cut coal consumption in Half by 2018,as the pipelin of 32 new domesrtic nukes get built, and join the grid.
The electrified auto is a done deal. It's coming. The automaker's 2010 designs including early PHEVS, are cast in concrete. There is no intrinsic engineering reason that they should not be cheaper to build and even now to operate over time.
These vehicle designs will reduce Oil demand by 70-80% when fully adopted and incorporated in the auot fleets, by 2020. It will kill the power of the ME Oil sheiks and Oil tyrants like Chavez, Putin and Ahmedijehad. It will remove lots of reasons for war, in the intermediate and long term.
But that is tomorrow, today we must make do, as the crazies forbid exploiting other oil sources in the interim, to ease short term supply issues.
And the World is doing so, unless a major supply interruption were to occur. Whether that is even possible is immaterial. The economic downturn would not be permanent. We have endured much worse.
Together these two committed solutions, already in progress, answer your hypothetical problem. Since the Science of the 21st century increasingly reveals it's not a real problem, even your fanciful problem will be solved, as if it really needed to be solved.
There is no reason for coercive measures, when every person in the World can both desire to have and to have his own vehicle of wahtever size, that suits his needs, when there is ample clean Energy for everyone.
"You can't save the Earth unless you're willing to make other people sacrifice" - Scott Adams (speaking through Dogbert)
Posted by: Stan Peterson | October 10, 2007 at 03:03 PM
I don't need to urge Stan. It's happening, and faster than you think. And yes I believe that we should be getting from A to B in the most efficient way possible. That's the only sustainable way forwards.
But I don't think nukes are essential in the UK. I don't think they're essential anywhere. Total decarbonisation of energy is not necessary, but big cuts are.
Moving from combustion engines to EVs will cut transport energy consumption a lot. Couple that with a shift to effective, cheap public transport and the savings will be greater.
In the UK we have access to huge renewable resources and carbon sequestration will be feasible thanks to our former oil and gas fields, so gas fired electricity is still open to us.
Nuclear is not the only solution to climate change open to the world although the industry, our politicians and many others will have us believe otherwise.
Posted by: Scatter | October 10, 2007 at 03:11 PM
@Scatter.
The world consumes over 80 quads of energy annually. Despite all the urgings to use "other renewable sources" fora third of a century, these other sources contribute less than one quad of energy. To urge otherwise is as if to recommend to the little child on the Beach that his toy bucket and shovel is all that is needed to drain the Ocean.
I welcome these renewable sources but they are neither fully clean, (like hydro or wind are revealed to have warts) nor is it realisitic to beleive that they scale to the size of the problem.
Harnessing wind, wave and solar ALTERS the climate. Maybe "not much"; but that "not much" is what you insist is a world calamity.
Solar alters th Albedo, trapping heat; Wind interrupts the world evening out temperature differences that cannot be denied and will manifest itself as more intense storms; harnessing waves withdraws Tidal energy and forces the Moon further from the Earth, decreasing the stabilizing effect of the Moon on Earth 's wobble; and altering climate. For example, a one degree change in tilt turned the Sahara from a verdant plant and animal filled Savannah, to virtually unpopulated sand dunes, in only a few Millenia.
Beware of what you ask for. You just may get it.
Posted by: | October 14, 2007 at 10:36 AM
The number of reactionaries here is stunning.
Posted by: jack | October 15, 2007 at 02:30 PM
TrackBack
TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d8341c4fbe53ef00e54ef474ec8833
Listed below are links to weblogs that reference King Review of Low-Carbon Cars Issues Interim Analytical Report; 50% Cut in UK Transport CO2 Emissions Per Km Possible by 2030:

Twitter headlines


Professor King says forget about hydrogen fuel cells, far too expensive in cost per tonne of CO2 saved.
Maybe in 100 years time....