Sep-2007 Sales are in and Hybrids have not done well.
Toyota + Lexus had sales of 18,130 while Honda has around 2,321.
Thats a total of 20,451

Nissan may be around 1,000 while Ford may be around 2,000. All this
may bring a total of 23,000, which is annualized sale of around 275,000.

But Sep-2007 overall vehicle sales is 4 % less while the Hybrids may
be the same which is good.

Some lessons learned here.
* Despite the introduction of newly designed Highlander, its sales
declined from 2,347 in Sep-2006 to 193. The reason is they increased
the length, width, height and the weight of the vehicle and the green-minded
people have rejected this as Hybrid model.

* Prius had 23 % increase with 12,494 units sold, while Camry slightly increased
from 4,044 to 4,196 units.

* GS450h declined from 162 to 72, Rx400h declined from 1,687 to 979 and the
new entry LS600h gained 196.

* Overall, Toyota has to remove some extras and reduced the prices. Already price of Prius is reduced by 1,200 and Camry by 1,000. If they really want to increase Hybrid sales, they should apply it in all smaller vehicles like Corolla, Scions.

* People are quite shrewd and have become more cost conscious especially with problems in housing market and the economy in general.

Max Reid,

I'm inclined to agree with you. Wonder what Toyota had to prove with oversized hybrids? Would it be to satisfy many-mostly buyers in USA?

Corrola, Matrix and RAV 4 hybrids could have been better choices. They may be coming soon.

If they could get some record high mpg ratings to make news, they'd sell a lot more cars. Maybe that's what the next Prius will do. But I agree, if they made a hybrid small car that got 60-80 mpg based on one of their engines that already delivers great fuel economy, it'd be a boon for them.

Max,

I agree with you that Toyota shouldn't increase the size of the Highlander Hybrid. Nevertheless I believe it's premature to say that is the reason sales dropped in September.

I follow the local Toyota dealer's inventory of hybrid vehicles on their website . Their Prius numbers recently went from 6 vehicles to 18. One vehicle in particular (the one color my wife and I can agree on) has been on their lot for at least two weeks. Prius sales seem to have softened considerably.

They have 13 Highlanders, all 2008 models. When they were clearing out the 2007's they had very little inventory. Most important, I haven't seen a 2008 Highlander Hybrid yet. Let's wait until December to say whether or not they will sell. My bet is that they'll sell very well when they're more available.

Sidebar: The Honda dealers in our area don't seem to list inventory on their websites. I'd like to know how many Civic Hybrids they have in stock. They apparently don't want me to know.

Hi All,

I think the issue with smaller Toyota Hybrids is that the smallest engine they make in very large quantities is the 1.5 liter in the Prius. The Hybrid powertrain is so effective, the 1.5 liter is about right for a mid-sized car.

As engines get smaller, the reynold's number of the internal airflow gets worse. So the efficiency of the engine gets worse as there is more energy lost to pushing and pulling air around. That means one has to start going to 2 or 3 cylinder engines. As Toyota is not a motorcycle company, they are not well positioned for the micro-hybrid. A 1.0 liter 3 cylinder engine would probably be good for the Echo.

Then again, that did not stop Honda from using a four cylinder engine in the Insight. One has to think what a 2 cyl Honda motorcylce engine , with a full hybrid in the Insight might have yielded in fuel economy. 80 - 90 mpg on the EPA combined ?

The other thing about small cars, is with a manual transmission, and some good technique one can do well in comparison to the EPA. So, the payback is not as extreme as with a midsized car.

Diesel with a Manual tranny may be more market effective for sub 2500 pound car.

Donee,

The insight was a 3 cylinder.

What does any of this have to do with SatCon?

George, you're right it has nothing to do with subject line but then the Air Force has nothing to do with greencars either. I can understand ground forces wishing to curtail the amount of carting around needed by fuel tankers particularly in hostile areas. You also can't put a fuel sipper in a military vehicle as they need to be driven at break neck speeds for safety in war zones. But I repeat, I don't see what this has to do with the AirForce.

For me it highlights the problem that smaller companies ecounter trying to break into industries with private funding. Only the research budgets of the armed forces are readily available to fund on high risk bleeding edge projects. They want 'proof of principle' results which they can ship back to more established suppliers.

In the alternate energy and hybrid powertrain fields it is not unusual to discover in the 'investors info' section of their websites some military project being undertaken.
It is in the interest of the military to cultivate a diverse array of researchers and at lower cost. At the same time it probably encourages interest from Venture Capitalist groups for additional funding if they see someone else already bought in.
The article didn't say whether this was a cost plus contract either.
An example an overly stiff hydraulic valve on a temporary test rig. The acceptable solution for a larger company with generous funding would probably be to dole out $1000 for a replacement to be fitted ASAP the next day if one is in stock, that is. For us - my business partner picked up a four foot length of pipe while wandering around the back, fitted it over the valve lever and delivered the requisite 'fine adjust' capability we needed ! Problem solved. Generally smaller companies are prepared to accomplish more with less. Larger companies also tend not to want to do anything they haven't done already. Wasn't GM playing with the Electrovair II back in 1967 ? Now they may be pulling all nighters to get the VOLT ready by 2010.
SatCon has been around a long time with EV's, they will have deliverables end of next year, interesting to see how their (PHEV) fares.
T2

Hi Donee
sure, it's OT but Satcon or any other company will give out as little useful detail as possible away - why help the competition. If it weren't for government scientists being published we would have to start from ground zero each time.
Here's something I learnt about research engineering projects. Some companies will get a list of engineers names from a job agency and pass them off on a contract proposal as current members of staff. If the contract is not awarded to the company those names don't get hired. Or sometimes they win the contract but decide to hire only half of the names and put the rest of the money in their pockets. It would be better for the engineering profession if Universities would teach more about the business of engineering- the word in the street - and much less about differential equations.
----------------------------------------------------

Hybrid design has indeed reached an impasse in Corolla and Yaris sized vehicles when a midsize like Prius is propelled by their smallest North American engine. Toyota does have smaller engines in their global market than their 1.5L 1NZ-FE, 105HP VVT-i and they have been working with the Yamaha motorcycle company for some time. The recently discontinued Corolla XRS with the 1.8L was one result of their partnership.

The problem is that shrinking a four cylinder is not the best way to go. The cost of steel and aluminum per engine is not a major cost driver. Reducing the number of cylinders and the number of piece parts is. Opting for One cylinder could be a very courageous decision here. In which case you would go for the most powerful cylinder and that would be the one with the largest diameter.

The stroke is an entirely different decision and the criteria is that it should be chosen so as not to cause the piston speed to exceed 4000fpm at maximum rpm.
But what is maximum rpm ? The answer lies in the generator requirements where we find speeds to 14k rpm are now running in the Camry Hybrid in both the MG1 and MG2 positions. That would be require a 40mm stroke with a max 60mm bore (max bore/stroke I have seen is 1.57) but a 60mm bore is not powerful enough. So it's engineering tradeoff time.

Higher rpm means higher peak power for the same mass or the same power from a more lightweight generator. When unacceptable high Bore/Stroke ratios are needed for high rpms the answer usually is to keep the stroke constant and just keep adding more pistons until you get the (piston surface area) power you want.

The trade off taken here means the lone 96mm piston needs a 60mm (min) stroke which slows the system to 9k rpm max. 9k rpm can be exceeded but durability will suffer as we go beyond 4000fpm.
So a 96mm bore with 60mm stroke which would allow 9k rpm with 3600fpm piston speeds would be a good choice for a first iteration and Yamaha could supply the engine from their WR450F which weighs in around 60lb. Generators are approx 1kw/lb @ 7k rpm say 45lbs. Be aware that if you shave 100's of lbs from the vehicle weight by avoiding the traditional engine/ clutch/ transmission combo then other structural members can be be reduced in size and weight also. 60Hp starts to look even more promising when you consider the Prius engine can only make 55Hp at 20mph (rising to 76Hp at 51mph) because of HSD mechanical gearing constraints.

Supposing an advanced series hybrid were built with a single cylinder 450cc large bore engine of about 60 HP installed into a Corolla sized vehicle would you consider buying it ? I am curious to know your thoughts regarding market resistance to smaller engines. Because if so, look no further, you've got impasse right there - at the consumer.
T2