So, E85 using corn ethanol is not helpful, hybrids are only successful because of government incentives (and, I would add, economically irrational "greenwashing" on the part of consumers), and (clean) diesel is a fairly reasonable choice, particularly for larger trucks / SUVs. If the price of gas continues to climb, if the hybrid premium goes down, or if ethanol can be effectively produced from more efficient feedstocks (sugarcane? cellulose?) then the game changes.

Tell me something I didn't already know.

but corn ethanol was such a pretty agribiz welfare program. Why did they have to shine the harsh light of facts and higher math on it?

Is anybody else as optimisitic as Khosla that corn ethanol is an infrastructural onramp to the El Dorado of cellulosic biofuels? We hear about lots of university spin-offs and partnerships and mergers for enzymatic lignocellulosic techniques, but are any of them really offering the 5-10x yeild increases necessary for ethanol or butanol to really become the no-brainer fuel of the near future?

I keep thinking that algae or cyanobacteria producing oils, fermentable products and maybe animal feed coproducts would be pretty efficient, but that's another one that seems like it's been a ways away for a long time.

Long live solar-thermal, photovoltaic, and the BEV.

Paging Ric Romero

Hybrids and Diesel means still the dependence on Petroleum and Gulf states.

Currently Ethanol is produced in smaller volumes and probably transported over trucks. If the production volume increases and is transported over trains, then the cost will go down drastically.

Also the cullulose Ethanol uses agro waste which comes freely, and if the refinery is closer to power plant, it can use the waste heat as well and all this will raise the yield and reduce the cost.

This group talks about Ethanol subsidy, but how about the duty on Brazilian made Ethanol, if they remove it, we can probably have $ 2.5 Ethanol / gallon of gasolene equivalent.

Of late, I see a lot of Chevy Impalas, Tahoes, Suburbans and even Dodge-Chargers coming with E85.

3 years ago, only 300 Ethanol stations were there, now its 1000.

- Their price estimates are way to low, prices are alreayd higher then that will will go up much more soon.
- Flex fuel engines have yet to take advantage of E85 high octane levels to increase engine/fuel efficiency.
- What about a E85 hybrid?

Unfortunately, the incremental cost of meeting EPA and CARB emissions regs with a diesel equals or exceeds the lifetime savings at the pump. Put another way, diesels will be applied mostly to large sedans, SUV/CUVs and especially, pick-up trucks where the overall margins are large enough to absorb the hit.

Mid-sized diesels like the VW Jetta will be the exception rather than the norm. Federal tax credits will help close the financial gap, but those are currently set to run out after 60,000 vehicles or 2010, whichever comes first. Beyond that, small diesels (2.5L and below unless dual charged) will only make sense for the US market if

(a) the cost of LNTs drops due to improvements in washcoat technology and/or

(b) the price of oil remains sky-high by historical standards for many years to come and/or

(c) the US decides to skew fuel taxes in favor of diesel to ease the shortage of domestic refinery capacity for gasoline.

For large diesels (3L and up), SCR aka urea injection is generally considered a cheaper solution to NOx cleanup than LNTs.

Note that first-gen biodiesel, especially if made from soy, is not a scalable solution. However, there already are several proven second-generation renewable options for diesel: TDP, xTL and DME. Intensive algaculture that recycles CO2 emitted by power plants may prove economically viable as well.

One itching question I have always wonder about urea SCR is if I could pee in it to refuel it with urea?

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/fn/5286047.html

There is a 51 cent subsidy on American Ethanol and 54 cent tariff on Brazilian Ethanol.

The trariff on Brazilian Ethanol will expire in 2009. After that we can see lot of Ethanol here available cheaply.

So if you get a chance buy a E85 vehicle.

Too bad Rand didn't examine NGVs, they might have found a cleaner and more cost effective solution, especially with rising petroleum prices.

VW is first back to the U.S. with their new diesel models next year (they're claiming mid-40s mpg city for their new diesel Jetta automatic)

Honda says they will be bringing their diesel Accord to the U.S. in 2009.

Do you think other auto manufacturers will simply ignore the above?

>Mid-sized diesels like the VW Jetta will be the exception rather than the norm.

Of course, if you use the worst possible form of ethanol in your study, it's not difficult to come to this conclusion. Corn ethanol is not a biofuel its a lobby fuel.

Why didn't RAND do the effort of comparing fossil fuels with biofuels?

This looks like a study on the relative value of horses, camels, and donkeys for the next 40 years.

Would like to see other future modes such as PHEVs, BEVs and fuel cells (various types) compared for the next 40 years.

"Tell me something I didn't already know."

Who cares to believe anything Rand has to say.

http://www.free-press-release.com/news/200709/1190031042.html

Brazil’s flex-fuel vehicle fleet now amounts to 3.9 million units, or between 15% and 16% of Brazil’s light vehicle fleet.

More Ethanol news
http://www.ethanolstatistics.com/Ethanol_Reports.aspx

Max Reid:

One and a half words for you:

"Sugar-cane"

@ Ben -

no, the OBD will detect if the liquid used contains anything other than 32.5% urea, causing the engine maintenance light to come on. EPA and CARB are still finalizing their rules on what action the OBD must take if an attempt is made to defeat the system. They may allow a limp-home mode or, the electronics may have to strand you altogether.

In urine, the concentration is in the single figures. There are also other compounds in there that will definitely gunk up the injection nozzle and/or other parts of the system. A sophomoric prank could land you with a huge repair bill (thousands not hundreds). That's if you can find a mechanic who will touch your car at all.

"...hybrids are only successful because of government incentives (and, I would add, economically irrational "greenwashing" on the part of consumers), and (clean) diesel is a fairly reasonable choice, particularly for larger trucks / SUVs.."

Sort of strange given some of the stories floating around this site at this time saying that diesel has higher consequences than believed. Also doesn't the story say at the end say that market forces alone wouldn't result in widespread adoption of any of the three technologies? It sounds as if you're writing your own pre-conceptions of the technologies rather than having read the entire thing.

The study is based on the costs of the present system and not for future decreased manufacturing/recovery costs that will be developed (for hybrids and their components). Nor does it take into consideration the secondary technologies developed (towards BEV & PHEV and general battery technology).

There is a logical fallacy of the study in which favours SUVs. It's the idea that the NPV doesn't really look into SUV use, just into the benefit of increased fuel savings. In absolute terms the highest mileage with any of the technologies is with the car/sedan not the light truck segment but this study makes the gains from the marginal fuel economy of SUVs (which were lax in the first place) more important.

Lastly I would add that the NPV of the hybrid car is dependent on the price of gas being $2.50, which in the study is the median price. At higher prices the NPV of the car becomes positive.

Rafael Seidl,

I don't think the damage would be that bad, salt contaimination on the catalyst from urine would be removed by using the recommended urea solution. But after looking into it I agree it can't be done, which is sad because buying urea is not a very common thing.

Apparently nano-phosphate/lithium ion technology is quickly coming to fruition; and may just be the current gold standard for rechargeabilty, power continuity, rechargeability and overall performance.

Check out a company called A123systems. They're a private company but probably not for too long.

We can run our cars on their batteries and have a PV unit on our garages/homes recharge the battery via storage cells of the same type.

FBerry,

If you're interested in A123 Systems go to the Google search tool at the top of the GCC webpage. If you type "A123" and search only the GCC website you'll get 187 hits. You'll get 200K+ hit if you Google the entire internet. It's one of the most-discussed topics of EV technology.

Max Reid,

You point out above that the 54-cent/gal tax on Brazilian ethanol expires in 2009, so we should all consider buying flex-fuel vehicles. What's your confidence that the farm lobby won't convince congress to extend the tax?

Ben,

Your question about urea from urine is interesting from a pure scientific point of view. You wrote that "buying urea is not a very common thing." I would add that saving your pee and putting it into your car is also not a very common thing. :-)

It appears the RAND study looked at current hybrid technology and not PHEV's. In 5 years the numbers will be way skewed from these results, when new technology is considered.

If I interpret the chart right at $3.50 a gallon for gasoline E85 becomes the most favorable solution?

James,

People pee into their radiators for emergency radiator fluid all the time ;-) It would in theory be cheaper to top off the urea tank with urine then with store bought urea.

Why does nobody on GCC ever talk about the CO2 costs of cutting rainforests to grow sugar cane in Brazil?

Ex: the Dutch tried to build a huge palm oil plant in Indonesia to displace diesel and be carbon-neutral. Until they found out that slashing rainforests and burning peat were required to make the palm plantations... Big net loser!

Sugar cane ethanol may make sense for Brazil's energy independence, but is it really carbon-neutral -- or for that matter, better than corn?

[q->t to email]

"If I interpret the chart right at $3.50 a gallon for gasoline E85 becomes the most favorable solution?"

Favorability in the study is the value of independence to foreign sources and the social/economic impacts that would occur when the price reaches that level according to current understandings. How much you put into consideration and the impacts would have to be looked into.