Out of how many total vehicles produced during that period? My guess would be something like sixty to eighty million in that ten year span. Quite a halo effect -- less than 2% of the product line generates all the buzz.

I don't know if Honda will "reformulate" the Accord hybrid but a 4 banger + hybrid seems to be working quite well for the Camry.

The Estima Hybrid is the Toyota minivan right? Hmmm, looks like the sales are not strong in Japan so they probably won't bother considering it for the US (I believe it is smaller than the Sienna and they don't have plans to bring it over to the US anyway).

I can confirm that the "4 banger + hybrid" works very well for the Camry. Good mileage and plenty of guts.

Combustion engine is 120 years old tech, while Hybrid is 10 years old. We cannot compare them on 1-1 basis.

Still in just 10 years, Toyota is able to sell almost 1.2 million, thats great. So Prius have 850,000 to its counts. In another 2-3 months, it will hit 900,000 figure.

They may not bring Hybrid Minivan to US, since minivan sales are going down. What the market is waiting for next is the Plugin-Prius and that will be a big hit.

In terms of Crossing the Chasm, do you think the Prius has "crossed the chasm", that is to say, are the current buyers early adopters, or are they pragmatists? When over 5% of new car sales are full hybrids, I bet that number will jump to 50% in just a few years. At that point, the simple payback on the hybrid system in terms of gasoline savings will be under two years, where currently, it is more than 5 years for the average consumer. A switch to Li-ion should accelerate this by offering much cheaper, higher performing batteries. Carbon markets/taxation will also help to speed along.

I'm not sure that such a rapid jump is in the cards.  It assumes that the supply chains are able to produce enough of the unique vehicle parts (motors, inverters, batteries) to make that leap.  It took Toyota several years to get the Prius supply anywhere near the demand, and that's with much smaller total numbers.

I would love to walk down a car lot in 2015 and see every other vehicle being a full hybrid (and the rest all having the Integrated Starter Generator that hasn't quite taken off yet), but getting production retooled will take years.

I think what will really cause hybrid car sales to climb is Honda's upcoming small hybrid family vehicle that will be built on the same platform used by the second-generation Honda Fit/Jazz model, though on its own unique body design.

The lesson to be learned from the data presented here is that the market potential would be a lot stronger for hybrids to have their unique dedicated model using clean-sheet approach, instead of being compromised in performance by having to sharing platform (model) with the non-hybrid version.

By using a clean-sheet design for a hybrid model right from the start, engineers can optimize the body structure for maximum strength-to-weight ratio and overall weight reduction, maximize internal space and cargo space, pick the most efficient and appropriate engine for the dedicated hybrid, AND, last but not least, give the owner a "green" status symbol, analogous to the "testosterone" of the Corvette...etc. owners, or "affluent" of the Lexus or MB or BMW... etc. owners.

Even the Camry hybrid is a wasteful development effort, since the "porky" new Camry body is really designed to house the potent V-6 256 hp, 3.5 liter, forcing the car to weigh more than it has to. The Camry hybrid has a woefully-lacking trunk space of only 10 cubic ft. , while leg room and head room is not of any improvement from the Prius II, only the Camry has 4-inch more width in the rear seat, BUT, the price to pay for is much poorer MPG figure and $4,000 higher base price over that of the Prius II. Not enough bang for the buck and sacrifice in MPG performance.

Toyota's hybrid sale potential could have been even a lot stronger if Toyota would offer a little bit wider and slightly longer version of the Prius, call it Prius XL or something, so that the width of the larger Prius would equal or exceed that of the Camry, using the 1.8-liter Corolla engine and using a little bit souped-up Prius II's electrical components, while having an even large trunk space than the Prius II, and a more aesthetic body now that it is wider than the Prius II, the latter is too tall for its width, giving it a lanky, dorky or nerdy look from behind.
A wider body would cure that, guaranteed!!! with perhaps no more than a 5 mpg penalty over that of the Prius II.

Roger Pham;

Toyota will certainly continue to diversify their hybrid line over the years. My guess is that we can expect more dedicated improved Prius like units in the near future.

As for hybrid total on a % base, it is not unfair to expect a multiplication in the next 8-10 years from 2% to 20-25% with a good portion being PHEVs (I hope).

The reason for my optimistic view is that many other manufacturers from USA/Canada, Europe, CHINA, INDIA, Japan, KOREA, Brazil, Mexico etc will start producing hybrids and PHEVs from 2010-11. The yearly production will very quickly reach 2 to 5 million.

China, already producing about 80% of the world NiMh and Lithium batteries, could easily and quickly produce 5+ million battery packs a year. India could do likewise.

This thread is a bit old so I might not get a reply but here is my question.

If PSA go ahead as expected and release the Hybride Hdi in 2009 as MY2010. Okay we are talking about markets where fuel is not 'cheap as chips'.

Will Toyota chuck their D-4D units at the Prius III or offer Corolla, Auris, Avensis, Yaris, Verso, Land Cruiser etc. with HSD III?

Won't the market demand this?

Roger Pham,

You might want to read up on the design of the new Honda Fit that just went on sale in Japan. If you look at the rear cargo area, note a deep, below seat level space that is now used for cargo; Honda could "fill in" that space with the battery pack for a hybrid vehicle without sacrificing much in the way of cargo carrying space. That means more likely Honda's new low-cost family hybrid will be based off the platform used on the new Fit, though of course with its own unique body design.

How come the eco-friendly Europeans don't buy more hybrids? One would expect 80% of Prius sales to come from "green-minded" Europeans.

Raymond, you are right. The Fit is very "fit" as a platform for adapting a very practical hybrid. The light-weight and space efficient design will minimize the cost of electrical components and therefore will give more mpg's for the purchasing cost. The 1.3-liter engine would be best for the hybrid model.

The secret formula in marketing hybrids is space efficiency, light-weight, low cost, and an unique model/platform. Apparently, Toyota and Honda has learned it the hard way via the complete failure of the Accord hybrid, and the lackluster sales of the Lexus hybrids.

BMW4ever
In Europe you have the diesel fuel technology instead and European commuters drive comparatively small cars. My old Ford makes more than 50 mpg and modern eco-diesel cars make more than 70 mpg.

I am excitingly watching the developments because I have invested in rare earth stocks (you need rare earth for the NiMH batteries and especially for the magnets in the power drives) but agree with Ben that we need light and cheap Li-Ion-batteries and PHEV before sales in hybrids will really take off.