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UCS Report on Biofuels Calls for National Low-Carbon Fuel Standard
14 November 2007
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| Sample lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions relative to a gasoline baseline. Click to enlarge. Source: UCS |
Heightened concern about oil dependence is generating growing support for alternative transportation fuels, but some would emit significantly more greenhouse gases on a full lifecycle basis than gasoline or diesel, according to a new report by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS).
Transportation is responsible for two-thirds of the nation’s oil consumption and nearly 40% of US greenhouse gas emissions on a life cycle basis. To dramatically cut emissions from this sector, a comprehensive solution must include improved vehicle fuel efficiency, smart growth policies that reduce vehicle miles traveled, and clean fuel alternatives, according to the report.
We need to wean ourselves off oil, but we should replace it with the cleanest alternatives possible. Let’s not trade one bad habit for another.
—Patrician Monahan, author of the report and deputy director of UCS’s Clean Vehicles Program
On a lifecycle basis, for example, liquid coal, can release about 80% more greenhouse gas emissions than gasoline, the report found. Corn ethanol, conversely, could be either more polluting or less than gasoline, depending on how the corn is grown and the ethanol is produced. On average, corn ethanol can reduce emissions about 20%, though there is uncertainty due to differing land use practices. The cleanest alternative, cellulosic ethanol from grasses or wood chips, could reduce emissions by more than 85%.
The report evaluated two scenarios for alternative fuels, one carbon-intensive—meaning that it would produce significantly more greenhouse gases than burning gasoline—and the other low-carbon—meaning that it would produce significantly less. The analysis assumed that alternative fuels will replace 37 billion gallons of gasoline, about 20% of the fuel UCS projects Americans will consume in 2030.
In both scenarios, conventional biofuels would meet 25% of the demand for alternative fuels. In the carbon-intensive scenario, the remaining demand would be met by liquid coal. The carbon-intensive scenario would increase emissions by 233 million metric tons—equivalent to adding about 34 million cars to the road, the number of new cars and light trucks currently sold nationally over a two-year period.
By contrast, the low-carbon scenario relies on advanced biofuels to meet 75% of the demand. That would cut greenhouse gas emissions by 244 million metric tons, akin to taking 35 million of today’s cars off the road.
The report calls for a national low-carbon fuel standard that accounts for alternative fuels’ global warming emissions over their entire life cycle and requires them to emit less pollution than today’s petroleum-based fuels.
Life cycle analysis for alternative fuels could help farmers and the biofuels industry, according to Gregg Heide of the Iowa Farmers Union.
Congress is now considering an energy bill that includes a renewable fuel standard giving the Environmental Protection Agency the authority to develop life cycle analysis guidelines. To date, the federal government has been promoting both cleaner and dirtier fuels. For instance, Congress has approved funding for research into next-generation ultra-clean biofuels, but it also is subsidizing research into liquid coal processing technology.
In January 2007, California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger issued an executive order calling for establishing a state low-carbon fuel standard. (Earlier post.) The California Air Resources Board is currently developing regulations that would require manufacturers of transportation fuel sold in the state to reduce per gallon emissions of global warming pollution by at least 10 percent. Arizona, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon and Washington State are considering similar policies.
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November 14, 2007 in Climate Change, Engines, Fuels, Policy | Permalink | Comments (14) | TrackBack (0)
Comments
Posted by: BlackSun | November 14, 2007 at 12:55 PM
I agree 100%. Liquid coal is the worst idea I've ever heard, and I'm sick of seeing coal ads on TV painting themselves as a good, clean alternative. They show a nice shot of a piece of coal against a clean white background. It's coal, it's filthy. Touch it to that white background and see what happens.
Posted by: Elliot | November 14, 2007 at 01:31 PM
The good thing is that we can in theory produce carbon-negative biofuels, by coupling their production to carbon capture and storage.
A strategy could be to let the CTL & GTL industry optimize these technologies, and then, when they have pumped in the money, force them to switch to biomass and biomethane.
Then we would be on track for negative emissions biofuels, instead of the mere carbon neutral biofuels discussed in UCS paper.
Posted by: Jonas | November 14, 2007 at 01:58 PM
Without a doubt engineers need to put some brainpower into making coal cleaner and less water intensive. However, don't write it off so fast. It's domestic, cheap and readily available. Take a trip into Colorado, you can literally see it lying on the ground.
Posted by: Joseph | November 14, 2007 at 02:06 PM
Say no to coal!
Say yes to accelerate investment in wind and solar energy.
More research and investment into conversion of wind and solar energy into storable fuels, such as H2, CH4, CH3OH, C2H5OH, NH3, etc. Only then that there will be hope of halting global warming and making our energy use sustainable for thousands of years to come.
Posted by: Roger Pham | November 14, 2007 at 03:05 PM
I find it interesting that so many of these studies focus on Ethanol while ignoring other biofuels, most notably algea to biodiesel. Algea farming requires both minimal labor and energy inputs, has significantly greater yields per acre and a denser energy potential than most other feedstocks.
Further, all these posts against coal and other energy sources used for generating electricity are ridiculous and short sighted. Yes, we need more solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, tidal and other alternative sources but these are not stable power alternatives and have significant limitations. They will never be able to be the domininant power sources at best meeting maybe 40% of overall needs.
Ultra efficient Gas, coal, biomass, etc to electric plants will always have a place. By coupling Algea production to the CO2 waste streams of these power factilities we could not only capture the CO2 but convert it into an alternative energy stream. See earlier post that indicates ability to provide for all transportation fuel needs through converting powerplant exhaust gases into Algea based biodiesel.
Further, the same bioreactors could be coupled with all kinds of other CO2 sources including Ethanol facilities, Biodiesel facilities, sewage waste streams, etc.
While commercial scale production is still several years away we get the best of all worlds, cheap electric generation (coal, gas, biomass, waste inputs), with CO2 outputs converted into transportation fuels resulting in significant overall CO2 life cycle reductions while greatly reducing if not eliminating our reliance on foreign oil.
see earlier posts -
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2007/09/greenfuel-techn.html
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2007/11/gspi-and-btr-to.html#more
Posted by: Mungai | November 14, 2007 at 05:14 PM
And how are they going to baseline this standard?
Here's a comparison for instance:
http://greyfalcon.net/lcarough7.png
Posted by: GreyFlcn | November 15, 2007 at 12:16 AM
Whats even worse.
How is it even possible to accommodate for indirect emissions with this type of standard?
Palm Oil for instance, is a rather attractive in direct emissions reductions.
But if you factor in indirect emissions, it's absolutely horrific.
http://greyfalcon.net/palmoil
And merely the factor of displacing farmland, that new demand will not necessarily end up in a more sustainable region.
http://greyfalcon.net/soy2
Posted by: GreyFlcn | November 15, 2007 at 12:30 AM
Heh, and of course the forward for that graphic up top:
http://www.greencarcongress.com/images/2007/11/14/ucslcfs.png
"NOTE: These values do not include all potential sources of global warming pollution, particularly the effect of direct or indirect land use changes. Actual global warming emissions may be higher than these estimates."
i.e. "We are showing you an intentionally discounted emission rate for biofuels"
_
And if Paul Crutzen has anything to say about it,
DRASTICALLY underestimated.
http://greyfalcon.net/n2ostudy.png
http://greyfalcon.net/n2ostudy
Posted by: GreyFlcn | November 15, 2007 at 12:39 AM
==Liquid coal is the worst idea I've ever heard==
Well then you should be absolutely livid about the concept of industrial scale biofuels.
Since it makes Coal-to-Liquids look relatively benign.
And frankly the same pathways that would open up biofuels use, are the exact same ones which would lead towards exploding the use of Coal-to-Liquids.
Posted by: GreyFlcn | November 15, 2007 at 12:48 AM
I just wanted to jump in and mention that we (NRDC) released a new Mark Fiore cartoon (pointing out the absurdity of Liquid Coal) a couple of days ago. You can see it at beyondoil.nrdc.org. Also Deron Lovaas has weighed in on the issue over at our blog switchboard.nrdc.org.
Posted by: Apollo Gonzales | November 15, 2007 at 11:05 AM
NRDC is pathetic though, because they dogmatically believe that biofuels can do no wrong.
And they hysterically deny anything that shows the opposite.
Posted by: GreyFlcn | November 15, 2007 at 01:14 PM
wow-- talk about the pot calling the kettle black
Posted by: Jim G. | November 15, 2007 at 03:01 PM
==wow-- talk about the pot calling the kettle black==
You think I'm kidding?
http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85ResptoComm.pdf
Posted by: GreyFlcn | November 16, 2007 at 03:44 PM
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The UCS is right on the money. This is exactly why a carbon tax is essential, so that this information is factored into consumers' fuel choices.
Without carbon taxation, the coal industry is liable to come on like gangbusters offering supposedly cheaper liquid fuel. They will be doing their darndest at obfuscation and distraction to paint themselves as the smart alternative to "keep America rolling."
We absolutely must have carbon taxes now. Because if we allow big coal to take that line unopposed and untaxed, we condemn better and less understood technologies such as algal and cellulosic fuels to slower adaptation and reduced competitiveness. And we play Russian roulette with the climate.