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BYD Auto Introduces Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle in Detroit; On Sale This Year in China
14 January 2008
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| The engine, generator, motor and power control unit of the F6DM. Click to enlarge. |
BYD Auto, a subsidiary of China-based BYD Group, the leading provider of NiCd batteries (65% global market share) and lithium-ion cell phone batteries (30% global market share), introduced its plug-in hybrid electric vehicle technology at the North American International Auto Show.
The F6DM (Dual Mode, for EV and HEV), a variant of the front-wheel drive F6 sedan that BYD introduced into the China market earlier this year, actually offers three modes of operation: full battery-powered EV mode driving its 75 kW, 400 Nm motor; series-hybrid mode, in which a 50 kW, 1.0-liter engine drives a generator as a range-extender; and parallel hybrid mode, in which the engine and motor both provide propulsive power.
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| The F6DM. |
The FD6M starts out in EV mode. At medium speed it will shift to range-extending series hybrid mode, and at high speed it will shift to full parallel mode. In addition to the 100 km of EV range, the HEV modes add another 330 km of range, for a total vehicle range of 430 km (267 miles).
The F6DM uses a 20 kWh lithium iron phosphate battery pack, based on BYD’s own production cells (which the company calls its Fe cells). The pack, which runs down the center console, has a lifetime of 2,000 cycles. A 100% recharge with household 220 VAC takes approximately 9 hours. BYD says that the pack can achieve a 50% recharge in 10 minutes.
The 1,800kg vehicle has a top speed of 160 km/h (99 mph). It is Euro 4 compliant, according to BYD, and emits 70 g CO2/km.
Although BYD initially used Mitsubishi engines, it now makes its own. BYD also designed the motors, control systems and software for the DM technology.
BYD plans to begin selling the F6DM in China this fall, at approximately a $6,000 premium to the non-hybrid F6. The plug-in hybrid technology represented in the FD6M is relatively low-cost, according to BYD Chairman Wang Chuanfu, and could be applied to any of the BYD line (F3, F3R, F8) for the same $6,000 cost increment.
Chairman Wang said that he hoped to have DM technology on sale in the North American market in three to five years.
BYD is relatively young, being founded in 1995. The provider of IT components and batteries now has some 100,000 employees. In 2003, BYD Group acquired the Tsinchuan Automobile Company, which became the basis for BYD Auto.
BYD currently has two automotive assembly manufacturing plants in Xi’an and in Shenzhen, and R&D and testing center in Shanghai, and a mould plant in Beijing. The company currently has production capacity of 300,000 units per year.
January 14, 2008 in China, Plug-ins | Permalink | Comments (61) | TrackBack (0)
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Comments
A 20KWh battery for $6000 is good, 2000 recharges not so great but in all it sounds like a good start.
Posted by: JIMR | Jan 14, 2008 3:31:31 PM
So much for the great race between GM and Toyota for PHEV bragging rights. A company from China comes out of relatively nowhere and takes the cup.
Posted by: Neil | Jan 14, 2008 3:45:31 PM
JIMR;
The $6000 extra is the total differential between the single mode ICE version and the 3-mode version.
The battery pack cost is probably under $3,000.
This seems to be a fair size up-to-date compact car for 4 or 5 passengers.
This vehicle seems to meet all requirements for a family PHEV. Wonder what will be the total market price tag. I overheard that it may be below $20,000.
Posted by: Harvey D | Jan 14, 2008 3:46:09 PM
62 mile EV range means I would have to recharge once every 4 days (averaging out with weekend driving). 2000 cycles = 8,000 days before the battery is down to 80% (21.9 years) for my normal driving. Looks more than good enough for me (without using a single drop of fuel). Don't know what the little bit of regen would do for the cycle life, but in my case if it even caused a 10% reduction in cycle life I think I'd hit the calendar life limit long before the cycle life limit.
Posted by: Patrick | Jan 14, 2008 4:22:51 PM
I doubt they are paying patent fees to University of Texas for the Lithium Iron Phosphate batteries.
Still, if they can sell to the China market this year it would be a pretty good effort. For export purpose they may have to sort out some intellectual property issues.
BYD used to be a battery maker, until they acquired an automotive unit in 2003.
Posted by: Lulu | Jan 14, 2008 5:02:47 PM
Well done. This may lower some of the fuel consumption issues as China heads towards having 100 million cars on the road.
Posted by: sjc | Jan 14, 2008 5:08:49 PM
It's the return of the magic Chinese batteries.
Lithium-based, but no bad cobalt for $150-$300/kWh.
I'll believe that when an someone else independently verifies that claim (same as the company claiming $1/gallon cellulosic ethanol)
Posted by: Bill | Jan 14, 2008 6:25:11 PM
Wow...this is interesting. Originally all the car companies in Detroit were number one. Then it was Japan (Toyota Prius...Honda said it isn't coming out with a PHEV shame on them). Now it looks like China (with this PHEV) and India (Tata Nano) are going to be the next major players in the automobile market.
Posted by: Karl | Jan 14, 2008 7:24:41 PM
Oh, they could all put them on the road today if oil was $1000BBL, but they will continue to play the slow song until all the infrastructure is in place, and they've bled the public of every nickel from their present technology.
Posted by: Dave Lazur | Jan 14, 2008 8:10:49 PM
Before you damce in the streets...
Anyone else notice the oddly low range for the total range? The volt gets almost 900 miles...
62 mile ev range.. but not at full speed so we have no idea how it realy compares to a volt or any other plug in option comming.. How much of a charge did it take to get that? was it 90 to 20 or 90 to 40 like the volt.. or worse 100 to 20...
In all likelyhood the battery costs 5k and the other bits 1k... still even tho it looks like the battery is jeaby and big and low power output and not paying royalies and likely taking damage faster then 2000 cycles suggests to actualy get that range and has a very low range... and its likely bloodt spendy for a chinese car in china.... nice job hope they sell a ton.
Posted by: wintermane | Jan 14, 2008 8:59:21 PM
China has a majority of the world's lithium, it makes sense to manufacture the batteries there. If they can make large format cheap Lithium batteries, then I am sure that the rest of the world would love to buy them.
Posted by: Michael McMillan | Jan 14, 2008 9:42:25 PM
The trimode idea is good. You can use two medium motor/alternators and a small ICE combine them and get good power when needed or make an EV or series hybrid...brilliant!
Posted by: sjc | Jan 14, 2008 11:22:45 PM
I kept saying that BYD were about to do this ages ago and the amount of pooh-poohing I got back then!! ;)
Posted by: clett | Jan 15, 2008 1:05:49 AM
Sounds like a great start. But for those hoping to see these cars in the US or Europe - do a quick search on YouTube for crash-test footage of Chinese-made cars and SUVs before you get too excited... Power train technology is important - but as things stand right now - one would need to be suicidal to drive a Chinese-made car.
Posted by: Michael Chomiczewski | Jan 15, 2008 1:29:43 AM
Fantastic news in many ways. It is almost unbelievable when you consider that the “leading economies” Japan, EU, and the US are still 2 to 4 years from introducing their first PHEVs. The automotive X-price competition is about to be redundant even before it was launched. The winner is BYD Auto. What a surprise!
The fact that they say the battery chemistry is LiFePO4 and that it does 2000 cycles and can charge to 50% in 10 minutes means that they indeed do have the necessary nanotechnology for their battery. Maybe they stole the technology but before they can settle that I a US court room they will have bought enough time to make their own nanotechnology (there must be hundreds of ‘pass ways’ for these nanotechnology lithium batteries). I wonder if BYD auto is also behind the highway capable EV that MilesEV plan to sell at the US market by year end 2008 or in the beginning of 2009. I am sure that BYD auto also intend to get their PHEV approved for the US market as soon as possible simply because it is the largest market for PHEVs in the next 10 years.
The third and perhaps most interesting part of this news announcement is the price estimate they give for the extra cost of this PHEV. $6000 extra for a PHEV vehicle with a 20kWh battery is not much at all. The extra costs will almost exclusively be due to the 20 kWh battery because cost savings from downsizing the needed ICE and can pay for the extra cost of power electronics and the electric motor. In other words, the Chinese can do the needed automotive grade battery for only $300 per kWh including packing! This is very big news and I very much doubt that any US, EU or Japanese automaker can compete with that.
It will be truly interesting to follow how competition will shape the global auto industry in the next 10 years with Indian cars at $2500 a piece, Chinese PHEVs at $6000 premiums, and with Chinese car production on track to outnumber US and Japanese production numbers by 2009-2010. The Chinese and Indians are writing the automotive history right now. It is the opinion of a loser to shrug this off by referring to the possible low quality of Chinese and Indian cars. I have no doubt that they are just about to flood westerns markets with cheap cars that will fulfill all of our emission and safety requirements.
Posted by: Henrik | Jan 15, 2008 3:00:34 AM
I still don't see the business here. If the non-hybrid version get 35 mpg and the hybrid version gets 100 mpg (optimistic). Then the average US driver will save 222 ($666) gallons per year, but must buy $288 of electricity so the net savings is $400 per year. Payback (not incl interest) is 15 years. Will they offer a 15 year warranty on the battery? Even with a $1 carbon tax, the payback is 10 years.
Posted by: Realist | Jan 15, 2008 5:31:44 AM
BYD is one of the biggest battery makers in the world. The LiFePO4 batteries of my OLPC XO laptop computers is made by them also (so they are not taking the beginners guide with LiFePo4 tech today).
If I were Toyota or GM, I would be pretty much alerted now.
The Chinese are switching to the fifth gear and not only with high-tech auto. They can freely experiment with new tech and they have a huge and continually growing internal market. Toyota is for example cannot simply roll out a half-baked hybrid because that would ruin their reputation.
Posted by: sola | Jan 15, 2008 5:59:05 AM
You are assuming stable-ish gas prices, which is very short sighted. Electricity rates will rise too, but they are much more stable than gasoline/oil prices.
But your biggest mistake is not factoring in the all electric range. If the range is even 40 miles all EV, then the typical US driver will almost NEVER need to purchase gasoline. That's the whole point to PHEVs with 30+ miles of all EV range.
Posted by: | Jan 15, 2008 6:13:46 AM
I want in wheel motors in my PHEV minivan. Will buy a BYD for the second car in the meantime.
Posted by: JK | Jan 15, 2008 6:27:48 AM
Why on earth are they putting this precious technology into a sedan, when everyone knows it only makes sense to offer such tech in SUVs and pickups?
Posted by: Bob Bastard | Jan 15, 2008 6:49:33 AM
Realist, if you buy your electricity for 10 cents per kWh, then it's 2 cents per mile electric. If you buy gasoline at $3 per gallon, at 35 mpg that's 8.6 cents per mile for gasoline.
Over 10,000 miles of a year which is likely within the 60 mile EV range (remainder miles on gasoline), it would cost $200 for electricity, but $860 for gasoline.
So the savings per year are:
$660 at $3 per gallon
$948 at $4 per gallon
$1,235 at $5 per gallon
$1,522 at $6 per gallon.
Here in the UK we are already paying $8 per gallon.
Posted by: clett | Jan 15, 2008 7:06:23 AM
realist:
You may have forgotten a few major factors:
1) reduction of 8 to 10 tonnes of CO2/year/vehicle @ $50 to $100/tonne.
2) Oil war cost reduction @ $500 billion/year
3) Health care cost reductions @ many $ billions/year.
4) Work productivity gain with less absences.
5) Major reduction in Oil imports and trade deficits.
6) Revaluation of the USD and cost of living reduction.
7) much les vehicle maintenance.
8) and many more benefits ......
A PHEV-40 (miles) is worth much more than $6K in secondary benefits over 10 years.
Posted by: Harvey D | Jan 15, 2008 7:18:48 AM
realist:
You may have forgotten a few major factors:
1) reduction of 8 to 10 tonnes of CO2/year/vehicle @ $50 to $100/tonne.
2) Oil war cost reduction @ $500 billion/year
3) Health care cost reductions @ many $ billions/year.
4) Work productivity gain with less absences.
5) Major reduction in Oil imports and trade deficits.
6) Revaluation of the USD and cost of living reduction.
7) much les vehicle maintenance.
8) and many more benefits ......
A PHEV-40 (miles) is worth much more than $6K in secondary benefits over 10 years.
Posted by: Harvey D | Jan 15, 2008 7:23:40 AM
My utility compny allows me to get electricty at 3.9 cents/KWhr after 9pm and before 2pm if I'll pay 13.4 cents/KWhr the other 7 hours in the day.
Posted by: | Jan 15, 2008 7:25:11 AM
The battery pack has a life of only 2000 cycles? Is anyone else concerned about this? After 2000 cycles, the battery won't just be depleted, it will die. 100km EV range times 2000 cycles equals a life of only 200,000 km for the battery pack, and that is under ideal conditions (assuming the car runs under only EV mode for most of it's life). Realistically, the car will be running in series or parallel hybrid mode most of the time, since EV mode is only for low speeds. That means the life of the battery pack will be lower under the extreme conditions of daily driving in the city and on the highway.
There are Pruises out there around the world that have over 300,000 km worth of mileage and are still using their original battery packs.
Sorry, but BYD has not achieved anything special here. The battery pack life is quite low and it will be a costly replacement. The reliability of the other components and the safety of the car are also unknown.
What about the reliability and life of the battery pack under extreme humidity, heat, or extreme cold? Can the battery pack withstand temperatures ranging from 40 degrees Celsius to -40 Celsius?
Yes, Toyota needs to take the Chinese competition seriously, and believe me they are. Let's not give BYD more credit than they deserve though.
Posted by: toyo | Jan 15, 2008 8:02:17 AM
toyo, I believe the the NiMH battery pack in my wife's 08 Prius is rated at 600 cycles, so 2000 cycles is a big improvement. I'm guessing that like the Prius and other hybrids, the control software in the BYD will not allow the battery to deep cycle each time but will try to maintain the charge within a specified charge state. For example, I think the Prius maintains the battery between 40%-80% charge (off the top of my head).
Posted by: Bob Bastard | Jan 15, 2008 8:27:05 AM
BYD, isn't this the company that singed a long term technology sharing agreement with GM. And as soon as they had learned what they wanted to know, they told GM to get lost.
Oh Yeah, IT IS
This company has less integrity than GM, WOW.
Posted by: Joseph | Jan 15, 2008 9:12:31 AM
Yes, at $8/gallon PHEVs make sense. I live in the US where we pay $3 for gas and $0.15 per kwh for electricity. Sadly, if you buy a PHEV, you are still paying for the war in Iraq unless someone figures out how to transfer the war tax to the pump. I agree on the global warming issues but a majority of US consumers don't seem to care about the world that their children will inherit. The answer is a new form of transportation not incrementalism. You can't jump a 20 foot chasm in two 10 ft jumps. http://www.skytran.net
Posted by: Realist | Jan 15, 2008 9:16:46 AM
I live in the US where gas is $3.25/gallon and electricity is $0.08 per kWh
Posted by: Patrick | Jan 15, 2008 9:39:10 AM
This is exactly the kind of serial-parallel hybrid EV that I had been referring to here in GCC. There is no need for a transmission, since the electric motor assumes the low speed propulsion and low-speed torque. Since the battery is small, the engine driving a generator will provide supplemental current to the motor for acceleration. At cruise, the engine will be mechanically coupled to the drive train, thereby minizing electrical loss via the generator-motor route in the pure serial hybrid, while the motor will supplement the engine's torque when climbing hills, simulating a downshift to low gear, while when descending a hill, the engine will maintain its peak-efficiency output by recharging the battery, hence maintaining peak engine thermal efficiency for most of the time.
The quality of certain Chinese-made electrical products is quite good. I am flying electric R/C helicopters made in China, and the quality and durability is surprisingly good, clearly up to par with the rest.
Posted by: Roger Pham | Jan 15, 2008 9:52:34 AM
toyo said:
"The battery pack has a life of only 2000 cycles? Is anyone else concerned about this? After 2000 cycles, the battery won't just be depleted, it will die."
Correction:
After 2000 deep cycles (the worst possible kind of wear and tear you can put on a Li-on battery) the battery would be reduced to 80% of its original capacity. Not dead yet! In addition, the battery will be oversized to avoid deep cycling it. 2000 is a very respectable cycle life (at this time).
Posted by: Neil | Jan 15, 2008 9:53:07 AM
Roger: A post without any mention of H2?!? Are you feeling well? ;)
Posted by: Neil | Jan 15, 2008 9:55:45 AM
As an efficiency nut, I admire the sensibilities of their Tri-mode. It sounds to me like they made a good choice to underpower the gas motor, and then have only a small gas tank that they hope you will hardly ever need because you will mostly plug in. That saves weight two ways and makes more space for electronics and batteries. We don't really need a big gas tank for 800+ miles range on this puppy, because the point is to mostly use it as a BEV anyway.
That said, I expect performance tradeoffs from the trimode. Cruising with the ICE and adding electric for passing power should work. Adding electric boost is instantanous. However, when doing a standing start (say, trying to merge onto the freeway), the first mode is electric, and won't it take time for the ice to engage? I'm guessing it is poor at a standing start because of lag on starting the ice. They seem to have sacrificed gearing (again saving weight and complexity) that means the ice can't help until a certain speed is obtained (probably 20 mph or so).
It's easy to believe the Chinese will have done many things that won't fly in other markets, but what they have done is realized that 100 mpg of all gasoline operation could reduce their oil imports 70%.
The Loremo could do that with an ICE. UC Davis got to 78 mpg with an aluminum bodied Ford Sedan more than 10 years ago in the Supercar competition. There are a lot of good options. It's good someone is being aggressive putting some of them into production.
Posted by: Healthy Breeze | Jan 15, 2008 10:15:48 AM
"A 100% recharge with household 220 VAC takes approximately 9 hours. BYD says that the pack can achieve a 50% recharge in 10 minutes."
So, if your battery is discharged to 50% - you can charge it to 100% in ten minutes?
Posted by: sulleny | Jan 15, 2008 11:49:28 AM
And the small issue: "World suffering crisis of confidence in China manufacturing?"
http://techlogg.com/content/view/401/31/
Where's the safety data on this vehicle??
Posted by: sulleny | Jan 15, 2008 11:59:50 AM
sulleny, I doubt they ever let the batteries reach 0% charge...so it gets to 50% from whatever the normal minimum is set to in 10 minutes.
Posted by: Patrick | Jan 15, 2008 12:30:33 PM
Healthy Breeze,
For maximum low-speed acceleration, the ICE powers the generator solely to provide current to the motor, hence pure serial hybrid at even zero mph. For more standing-still torque or low-speed torque, use a bigger motor. The engine should only engage the drive train
mechanically when the car is in cruising mode (low to zero acceleration) at adequate speed when the engine can operate at its peak thermal efficiency regime.
With currently available high-power-to-weight electric motors, no performance sacrifice will need to be made with this serial-parallel hybrid and pure EV setup (tri-mode).
OK, Neil,
if you want H2 mentioned, they can just simply adapt the engine to run on compressed-and-adsorbed H2 in reasonably-sized tank. Direct-injection H2 (diesel cycle) will do well in an ICE, and has projected thermal efficiency of up to 50%. Look at the CIBAI concept, but in this case, instead of inject air to augment the compression necessary for ignition, compressed H2 is instead injected at near TDC to boost compression to the ignition point of H2, and then, boom, combustion takes place. A spark plug or a glow plug can further assist if needs be. The H2-direct-injection engine will only need a compression ratio of about 8-10, since injection of H2 will boost the compression to much higher, allowing gasoline engine to be easily modified to run on H2, or even dual-fuel gasoline-H2 engine is possible, with port-gasoline injection and H2 direct injection.
Hope this will make you happy, Neil :)
Posted by: Roger Pham | Jan 15, 2008 12:50:01 PM
(Cont. from above)
An Atkinson cycle gasoline engine with variable intake valve timing will be best for dual gasoline-H2 engine, since the engine can have lower effective compression ratio when used with gasoline, and higher compression ratio when used with H2 in the direct-injection Diesel cycle, for adequate expansion.
Posted by: Roger Pham | Jan 15, 2008 12:57:41 PM
@ Patrick,
Ah, don't forget that these are marketing claims. If my cell phone is any indication, getting from 0% to 50% is the quick and easy part, and getting from 50% to 100% is the tedious part. Never mind that it's really bad for the battery to deep cycle it, they still will claim the benefit. It is a benefit if you totally drain your car, although it probably doesn't mean you can go 50% of your all-electric range after only 10 minutes of charging...so, I'd be wary of that claim.
Posted by: Healthy Breeze | Jan 15, 2008 1:17:46 PM
Dream On. So many of you are gullible. Y'all beleived the Phoenix EV baloney, and as time passes we still don't see any $200,000 Phoenix electric sportcars.
BYD is a battery maker that has little experience in auto manufacture. When they have a vehicle that is importable, passes all the required tests, in about half a dozen years, they may become a player.
But by then all the established players will have similar or better vehicles. If they want to win, they wil have to eneter at the low end, compete on price, and build an image.
So many of you justly criticize vaporware and concept cars from the majors; bu then fall for this. But this is the TRUE GENUINE vaporware.
Posted by: Stan Peterson | Jan 15, 2008 1:22:27 PM
The charging curve is a bit non-linear. As HB pointed out, the last bit takes longer. You can improve battery life by taking all this into account and since batteries cost a lot, this is a wise thing to do.
Posted by: sjc | Jan 15, 2008 1:25:55 PM
In all the payback calculations, many of you just do not realize what will happen to oil prices. You merrily go on as if Oil prices can grow to the sky, forever.
Before 2020 and perhaps as early as 2015 or so, there will be a gargantuan and long enduring petreoleum price collapse.
When oil demand falls by half as a sea of HEVS, PHEVS, BEVS, and Small, clean turbodiesels flood and start replacing the world's auto fleets, there will be a lot of Sheiks and Commissars that will have oil to sell, and no buyers. That price action happened with a mere 5-10% excess capacity then; not the enormous overcapacity that will occur in the world then.
Now I know many of you never studied real world economics in your Marxist schools; but I assure you that it happened already in the early eighties, and oil collapsed to $10 a barrel. You seem to think that competiton must cause prices to respond to demand/supply instantaneously.
Markets take time to adjust in the real world. All these cars you see here, are the market response. Substitution is occurring right before your eyes, and you refuse to see it. As these vehicles emerge from factories, petroleum is being substituted for, by electricity, efficiency and perhaps a little conservation.
It's a long ways down from whatever the Commissars/Sheiks will have bid it up to by then, and the 75 cents or so for an electric gallon equivalent. Once people make the transition to petroleum substitutes, it will be tough for the nationalized oil producers to come back to reality; but they will be forced to so.
Posted by: Stan Peterson | Jan 15, 2008 1:49:11 PM
I think Stan's on to something. How long will the oil clowns try to milk their product when this generation PHEVs run on 115 mpg ethanol/biodiesel made from garbage? More than one or two Sheiks are shrieking at their accountant's income projections.
Dino juice = collapsing income, loss of political leverage, outdated resources, failed vision, = $6.00/barrel sweet crude. Ol' Jed Clampit's movin' back to thar hills...
Posted by: sulleny | Jan 15, 2008 2:18:17 PM
By 2020 global oil production will have fallen 30% if we are lucky. Production is in free fall in many important fields now. The price will not fall - rationing will be imposed by lack of supply well before prices ever get to $8 a USG in the US. How we are going to come up with some "fair" way of distributing petrol/ diesel/ gasoline/ parafin/ JetA I do not know - we won't, the nasty scramble (Iraq) is about to get much worse if we do not get some more responsible "leaders" into authority.
Posted by: Emphyrio | Jan 15, 2008 2:29:54 PM
WOW!
Posted by: GdB | Jan 15, 2008 6:54:06 PM
Great point, Stan.
With all the fat profit from escalating oil prices, the oil barrons and Sheiks will simply buy up the lithium and nickel and cobalt mines, and instead, we will have peak lithium instead of peak oil...and the rich will get richer, still ...and the mass of the people will again have to pay up, as usual. They did teach that in Marxist school, you know!
That's the third and last certainty in this life, beside Death and Taxes...
BYD may have little experience in auto manufacturing, but they are the expert in large-scale battery manufacturing, which is the weak-link of an EV or PHEV. They will simply team up with, merge, or acquire a major auto manufacturer in order to quickly gain the expertise.
Posted by: Roger Pham | Jan 15, 2008 7:02:33 PM
Twelve years from now oil's market share will have plummeted to 30% with old, outdated equipment, ICEs the only remaining consumers of gasoline (except antique collectors.) What the doomers fail to acknowledge is that ethanol/biodiesel can be made from almost any carbon biomass. If the big outfits don't deliver (and make money) look for roadside ethanol stands. They made it in bathtubs in the twenties - they will do it again.
As far as leadership - proof in the pudding. Oil on the run. Dozens new hybrids coming to market. Mass conversion to alternative energy sources. Major reductions in air pollutants, GHGs, petro-related disease, etc. People on Earth waking up to 10,000 years of exploitation?
Posted by: sulleny | Jan 15, 2008 7:06:59 PM
As I stated above, I still don't see the business model in the US. My prior numbers were $3 gas and $0.15 per kWh, if you use $4 gas and $0.08 per kwh, you get $1114 per year for a 35 mpg non-hybrid and $390 gas + $159 elec = $550 per year for PHEV. The payback is 10 years ,so with a 10 year warranty on the battery you are just breaking even. Without subsidies or massive taxes you don't really have a product.
Posted by: Realist | Jan 15, 2008 9:20:36 PM
Well, with Hummers still being sold, we won't see the price of oil coming down too much. High prices will drive some fuel substitution but oil demand is so high, it will take quite a while to offset production decline. This will have to happen to lower the price much.
Posted by: Ron | Jan 15, 2008 9:35:37 PM
One million hybrids sold each year is less than 1% of the fleet, after 10 years you have less than 10% getting 40-50% better mileage for maybe a 2% reduction in oil used. (70% of the oil goes into transportation and 40% of that is personal transportation) With increases in the number of cars and miles driven, this could be even less.
It is worth doing, but we have to be realistic about the results. Changing behavior patterns is a very quick way to reduce oil consumption. Driving that big SUV less is a good start. If SUVs and light trucks use twice as much gasoline as a hybrid per mile and 20% of the vehicles on the road are SUVs and light trucks, you can see that driving them less would help. Behavior changes do not require technology.
E10 is 10% less gasoline and a reduction in oil consumption. 3% here 2% there and more with behavior changes and we could get to 5-6% reduction in oil consumption over where we would have been if we did nothing.
Posted by: sjc | Jan 16, 2008 11:05:48 PM
Phevs are especially a good deal for kids living at home with their parents or for those with solar panels on the roof. Hopefully nanosolar which is currently making cheap solar available will ramp up production efforts so that we can all benefit by putting affordable solar electricity into our phevs.
Posted by: Dave | Jan 17, 2008 5:51:30 PM
....if you use $4 gas and $0.08 per kwh, you get $1114 per year for a 35 mpg non-hybrid....
That implies 9750 miles/year, which is a little silly. New US cars average around 14k miles/year (old cars average less), so at $4/gal, gas cost for a 35mpg non-hybrid is $1600. A 35mpg conventional car will get 50mpg when hybridized, so annual PHEV cost is:
(11,200 EV miles / 4 miles/kWh) * $0.08/kWh = $224
(2,800 gas miles / 50 mpg) * $4/gal = $224
Annual savings is thus 1600 - 448 = 1152 and payback period is a bit over 5 years. Different assumptions change the payback period, but it's clear a $6k PHEV premium is a reasonable economic deal for the customer even without subsidies.
Now let's make the case for subsidies. MASSIVE subsidies. At current prices the US spends over $400 billion per year on oil imports, plus another $200 billion per year on mideast military adventures. Subsidizing the ENTIRE $6000 premium for all 16 million new cars sold annually in the US would only cost $96 billion. Buying enough wind turbines to fuel the EV miles for those PHEVs would cost another $20b/year. This is peanuts compared to our current costs. We're talking about a half trillion dollars dollars per year staying in the US economy. That's almost $5000 per household per year. That's enough to wipe out most of our trade deficit.
PHEV subsidies are an absolute no brainer on a macro basis. We are idiots for not doing it.
Posted by: doggydogworld | Jan 18, 2008 10:14:40 AM
Payback period starts the day you buy your car. The extra amount in the monthly payment can be equal to the amount you save in fuel every month. You are paying no more every month than if you bought the less fuel efficient vehicle. I agree that a tax structure favoring fuel efficiency would be helpful. But since most hybrids are made elsewhere, the laws that have been written so far leave the buyer not knowing what they will get.
Posted by: sjc | Jan 19, 2008 8:48:08 AM
Let us not forget www.zenncars.com ELECTRIC
Reasonable priced city cars !
How many miles do you need around cities ?
Posted by: Kenneth | Jan 20, 2008 10:17:17 AM
@ Realist:
Try using a Csiro Ultra battery pack (100 000 + miles) at 30% of the cost and gas at $6/gallon or $7/gallon.
Break even time would be very few years and you would be many thousand dollars ahead before 10 years. If you add lower maintenance cost, lower GHG associated direct and indirect cost etc a PHEV quickly becomes a much better buy.
Posted by: Harvey D | Jan 21, 2008 9:31:20 AM
Harvey, the Ultrabattery achieved 100k miles on a HEV duty cycle. It wouldn't last nearly that long on the much more demanding PHEV cycle. Furthermore, 20 kWh of Ultrabatteries would weigh a ton.
Posted by: doggydogworld | Jan 21, 2008 1:15:37 PM
doggydogwood:
Your statements may not be correct.
The AFS Trinity used the Csiro Ultrabattery Combo ESSU in their 150 mpg PHEV.
The e-commodore Ultrabattery pack ESSU weighted only 200 Kg.
The Firefly Lead Battery has an energy density of 90 to 160 Wh/Kg and going up to 170 Wh/Kg in the near future. This compares with many lithium based units at much less cost.
Lead batteries alone may not be the best solution for PHEVs but when coupled with super-caps and Firefly units it is another game.
First generatiopn affordable PHEVs may need a lower cost ESSU based on older lead technology.
Posted by: Harvey D | Jan 23, 2008 5:21:49 PM
Harvey,
AFS uses a lithium-ion/ultracap package, not the lead-acid/ultracap UltraBattery.
The E-Commodore isn't a PHEV. Ultrabattery may work for low-capacity HEV applications where weight is less of an issue.
I've followed Firefly for three years and have never seen claims as high as 160 Wh/kg. Please document. Recent announcements guide to a mere 60 Wh/kg (see earlier GreenCarCongess article). They still might have a chance if they're really cheap. No need for ultracaps, though, a pack of Firefly's large enough to provide good PHEV range should produce ample power without assistance.
Posted by: doggydogworld | Jan 29, 2008 6:32:35 AM
Where is there North American operation at this time.
Posted by: Eric Yee | Jan 29, 2008 3:32:42 PM
Here is an interesting test drive at the show :)
http://jalopnik.com/344806/detroit-auto-show-world-exclusive-surreal-illegal-test-drive-of-chinese-hybrid-through-cobo-arena?mail2=true
Posted by: sjc | Jan 30, 2008 7:10:25 AM
It seems like the BYD's batteries are located LOWER DOWN and even more OUT OF THE WAY in this BYD hybrid compared to the battery location in a Prius.
Maybe the battery pack(s) are custom-shaped to spaces in the vehicle's frame?
(I saw a diagram somewhere that I couldn't quite make sense of.)
Can anyone confirm? Well, if so, that alone would be a real advantage for BYD in cabin space and center of gravity.
Posted by: Bill | Mar 13, 2008 11:06:29 AM
