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China’s New Auto Sales Forecast to Top 10M in 2008
3 January 2008
Japanese industry analysts are projecting that China’s automobile market is likely to top the 10 million mark in 2008, up from an estimated 8.5 million units in 2007. New light-duty vehicle sales were 3.25 million units in 2002.
Of the total forecast for 2008, new vehicle sales in China are expected to increase 15-20% from the previous year to more than seven million units for passenger cars, according to industry watchers.
China, which boasts the world’s second biggest vehicle market after the United States, will get boosts from double-digit economic growth, vehicle price cuts by automakers, and a string of new model launches.
According to the China Industry News newspaper, the number of vehicle owners per 1,000 people came to less than 50 in China, far lower than the world average of 120, indicating that there is still considerable room for growth in China.
January 3, 2008 in Brief | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
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Posted by: Henrik | January 03, 2008 at 07:18 AM
Henrik:
I agree with you and wouldn't be surprised if China produces as many cars than (USA + Japan together) by 2015-20.
Of course, a large percentage may be PHEVs and BEVs. Expect the majority of Electric Vehicles + batteries to be built in China and India by that time.
There are no reasons for practical size efficient EVs to cost 100,000 USD.
Small practical EVS built in China and India will cost less than 7,000 (2007 Euro) or $10,000 (2007 USD). However, it may cost more in current USD, specially if the USD continues its rapid devaluation.
The legal fights on batteries patents and royalties will be interesting. Joint ventures may be a way to get around it.
Posted by: Harvey D | January 03, 2008 at 08:42 AM
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Breathtaking. China is also on track to become the world largest producer of cars by 2009 as measured in terms of number of cars produced (by value it is less than Japan and the US). They produced 6.7 million vehicles in 2006 and they grow production by about 30% per year. For comparison Japan and the US did about 10 million each in 2006 but they grow very slowly compared to China’s growth rates. See http://www.worldwatch.org/node/5461