Toshiba will certainly be a major supplier of automotive high performace battery packs.

Up to 5000 cycles with discharge/recharge up to 50 Amps is about what many were hoping for their PHEVs and/or BEVs.

Assuming that price and weight will be optimized with mass production, Toshiba could be a reliable source for major car manufacturers.

Now we got a revenue estimate and the earlier post reported they plan to produce 1 million cells per month in 2010. The cell is 4.2Ah and 2.4V. So that is 1,000,000*12*4.2*2.4/1000 = 120,960 kWh produced in 2010. They expect to generate US$192 million so that is about $1,600 per kWh. This is rather expensive compared to the recent indications from BYD that they can do it for $300 kWh and A123 that they may do it for $500 kWh. Hopefully BYD will bring their PHEV out this year at a price that confirms that it is possible to do it for $300 per kWh. These batteries need to be priced below $300 per kWh to make a real impact in the automotive market beyond ordinary hybrids.

Henrik:

I agree with you that US$300/KWh would be the top price for 'affordable' PHEVs and BEVs. Many people think that BYD will do it even cheaper when yearly mass production reaches a few million packs, two or three years latter.

For Europeans, that would mean a rather cheap power back at about 175 Euro/KWh in 2009/2010 and probably as low as 125-150 Euro/KWh in 2012/13 when demand will reach 10+ million packs a year.

The world demand for low cost PHEVs and specially BEVs will be huge. As a major part of the demand will be from hot-sunny countries, lower cost battery packs will find a huge market as storage devices for domestic and industrial solar and wind energy. Lower cost solar cells + lower cost battery packs will be in high demands for decades.

Mass produced, standardized-exchangeable plug-in battery modules (3 to 5 KWH each) will find application in multiple places and quickly become one of the hottest manufactured product.

Standard modular packs should sell for US $200/KWh or less by 2015. Will they be produced in North America? It is very doubtful, unless our governments offer meaningful incentives to convert and equip a dozen unused car factories, with highly automated systems, to mass produce high performance standardized battery packs for the local market.

@Harvey D

I've always felt the same way about standardization. IMO, we need an ATX type standard for PHEVs. Standardized battery pack sizes, forms, voltages, connectors, etc.

I feel that battery packs should be treated as investment vehicles. Example: a BYD battery at $300/kw/h with a cycle life of 500 cycles is a worse value than a Toshiba battery at $1200/kw/h with a cycle life of 5000 cycles. Corporations, perhaps some variation of a REIT structure, could purchase batteries and then lease them to consumers. This would greatly reduce the initial purchase price of a PHEV which would help drive adoption.

Said REITs would recieve options to purchase battery packs in the future (once prices drop), ahead of consumers, and then re-sell or lease them. This would help insure that the initial investments remain relevant.

As an aside, this Toshiba battery would be excellent for HEV applications.

The anode chemistry, cycle life and cell voltage seem similar to Altairnano's cells, which have 2/3 the specific energy (kWh per kg) of A123 and Valence cells. For a large format battery used for PHEVs and EVs, specific energy is an important parameter. It's not so important for HEV applications where the enrgy storage is low (~ 1 kWh) and power per kg is the important criterion.

The cobalt component in the LiCoO2 cathode chemistry could price this battery out of the PHEV and EV market but not necessarily the HEV market. A123 and Valence use a far less expensive LiFePO4 cathode chemistry. A123 claims 4,000 deep discharge cycle life and it is in the running to provide the battery packs for the Chevy Volt.

The battery leasing idea is interesting but a REIT structure may not be necessary. For major manufacturers who carry their own paper - there would be no real advantage to third party battery leasing programs. At present PHEV designs e.g. Volt, have huge battery form factors which are structural and could not be swapped. And REITs require distribution of net income to shareholders moving tax liability to the investor as opposed to unrealized paper profits.

For warranty and competitive purposes, manufacturers will want to keep new battery technology under their own roof. One reason GM is holding launch of Volt til 2010 is they want the battery to be solid for ten years and 150k miles. As more BEVs PHEVs come online - expect deals to standardize pack sizes, and perhaps life cycles. That will allow lower cost of entry for new purchases and create an after-market "remove and replace" service industry.

@GreenPlease:

It seems that Chinese car manufacturers are planning to use standardized battery packs in their future Hybrids, Phevs and Bevs.

If so, the other countries may have go follow.

It would be advantageous to be able to select the most appropriate standardized battery pack to suit your needs and wallet.

Henrik, note that Toshiba's 2015 revenue estimate increased 50% since the prior article. It's possible their 2010 production goal has also increased. If 2010 goal is now 1.5 million cells/month the cost is a little over $1000/kWh. That's very competitive with current HEV "power batteries", especially if SCiB can handle a wider SOC window and thus require less kWh of capacity per vehicle.

A123 has indicated lower pricing, but they're not they're yet. Are BYD batteries commercially available?

NorthernPiker, SCiB does indeed appear very similar to AltairNano chemistry. Bad news for ALTI to have a trusted Japanese giant go into mass production first. Might be a death blow.

DDW

Good points very observant. That price the $1000 kWh also makes more business sense since it will be a hard sell to do it for $1600 kWh in 2010 if other producers like A123 should be able go much lower with a very similar battery. I think the indication of $500 /kWh from A123 is conditional on that they get the Volt order so I agree that A123 is not there yet. All they sell so far indicate a much higher price than $500 kWh. I saw this news about A123 that say they have recently opened a new factory in China to do their batteries http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/1-a123-systems-797.html

I think you are right about ALTI. They are quickly missing their short window of opportunity to get into this market. Once there are bigger acknowledged players in the field with similar technology ALTI is not going to sell anything. A123 also needs to hurry up but it appears they will make it especially if they get that Volt order. About that SOC window this is something that I have also noticed is important because as you also say it can importantly reduce the required kWh to do the job. My impression is that the SOC is larger (closer to 100%) the higher the possible power of the battery and higher power could also be a rough proxy for long cycle life. In this regard I think A123 may have a clear advantage over the LM’s LiMn2O4 battery and this could be the thing that makes GM pick A123. Another thing that points to GM picking A123 is that GM has an opportunity to acquire a pure battery manufacture. I think that GM can rather painlessly acquire A123 but that it would be more difficult for GM to ‘acquire LM’ or their automotive battery business. I bring this up because it remains to be seen whether vehicle manufactures should be integrated with battery production. This is a bigger discussion but my feeling right now is that they should be integrated. The two key arguments for integration is that you need superior quality control in order to warrant you product and secondly because that battery is going to be responsible for 10%-25% of the added value in the production of a PHEV vehicle and 35%-65% of an EV (that is high production risk). It should be easier to buy electric motors and power electronics by subcontractors because they are cheap and easy to warrant (that is low production risk). Essentially there is an argument for integration if the production risk is high because it is easier to control such risks internally than through a market.

BYD is integrating battery and vehicle production and there are clear indications that the Germans and the Japanese go for integration as well. It is quite clear to me at least that if safe, min 2000 cycle, 8-10 year calendar life, min 80 Wh per kilo batteries can be produced for $250-$300 per kWh it will end the use of ICE for almost anything but genset applications. Secondly if the price drops to $100 per kWh and you can increase the energy density to 200 Wh per kilo without compromising the other characteristics it will end almost all use of ICE. I hope BYD will demonstrate this year that the first objective is possible and that they only need to scale up production to make a real change in the auto market.

I have not seen any commercially available autograde batteries from BYD. They may have started to sell this type of batteries for the huge electric bike market in China and India but that is just best guessing. It would be odd simply to start selling a brand new battery for cars only. This seems too risky and it will be difficult to startup with the needed volume that makes sense for PHEVs and EVs.

Nissan teamed up with NEC for batteries and started their BEV battery program back in 1992. We might see more of these partnerships between car and battery companies. There may not be a good business case for buying nor creating a company to make batteries. You do not mind if they sell them to bike and tool companies, you would like to get their whole production for autos if possible though.

Another player to watch for is Japan's GS Yuasa, who is rolling out their Lithium Ion batteries around the same time as the rest of them.

@Harvey: Certain, hot-sunny counties will definitely NOT have a large demand for BEV / HEVs. Fuel is heavily subsidised in countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia & VAE, Nigeria, Venezuela, Indonesia etc.

People there are driving thirsty third- and fourth hand (scrap) cars because these cars cost much less than any new car ever will.

BEV/HEV demand will be in rich, developed counties like NA, EU and JP, perhaps australia too...

@greenplease: I believe you describe the business model of project better place in israel and denmark...

realarms:

I have to disagree.

1) The largest market (by far) for common sense, very affordable* BEVs (and PHEVs for a few years) will be China and India. With their combined population approaching 3 billion + annual growth rate of 8% to 12% + lack of local liquid fuel etc those two countries will drive the electrified vehicles world market.

* Those two very large countries have the manufacturing potential to mass produce $3K to $5K small BEVs to satisfy local demand and export to the rest of the world.

2) Of course, countries with major oil reserves and production like Iran, Irak, Koweit, UAR, Saudi Arabia, Venuezela, Canada, Russia, Lybia, Algeria, Nigeria, Mexico etc will not have to rush to PHEVs and BEVs. They can wait for batteries price to drop to 1/10 current level.

3) A few countries like Brazil, USA, Australia, Argentina, Russia, Canada etc., with large fertile land mass, could produce agrofuel-biofuel for PHEVs and delay the introduction of BEVs until they become more affordable.

One could say that:

1) above are BEVs countries.

2) above are gas guzzler countries.

3) above are PHEVs countries.

Place your bet.

I just want a reasonably safe car with great gas mileage or no need for gas and under 25,000 dollars. i'm willing to wait until 2010-11. how about some simple suggestions? oh yes, and the father of all the kids is dumping us all for a younger woman with a great career and more money. what a Greek, literally. so don't think i'm getting any help in this. please don't talk any lingo. i just need it straight and simple. thanks for any help really, you know i need it.