According to this April 15, 2008 article from EVWorld, there is an “Abundance of Lithium”. The article has a link to a more complete report. The author of the report concludes "concerns regarding lithium availability for hybrid or electric vehicle batteries or other foreseeable applications are unfounded", i.e., “Peak Lithium” is a fantasy.

http://www.evworld.com/article.cfm?archive=1&storyid=1434&first=3358&end=3357

Furthermore, according to this blog (link below), there is a Sept 9, 2007 article in Nature that reports on the potential of sodium/lithium iron phosphate, A2FePO4F (A=Na, Li or a combo thereof) to (substantially) increase energy storage and life cycle capability compared to LiFePO4, one of the two cathode chemistries that are in the running for the GM Volt battery pack contract. Perhaps, we should now anticipate articles sponsored by big oil on “Peak Sodium”.

http://entropyproduction.blogspot.com/2007/10/sodium-ion-batteries.html

The Nature article abstract is viewable here

http://www.nature.com/nmat/journal/v6/n10/abs/nmat2007.html

Emphyrio

You number are welcome since I think most people are dreaming this post, 10% of lithium production to make 300 000 cars when the industry is already 30% undersupply, that is a terrible situation I can tell you that in these conditions the price of li will keep the plug-in car as a curiosity for quite a while.

Yes plug-in will happen but not as fast as you might wish, in 2015 it will be less than a percent of the sales, and then with 10% growth yearly (quite optimistic) you will have 15% of plug in in 2025, period.

Maybe I'm whacky but hand-wringing and catastrophe seem to be hardwired into some people.

Note that most Li resource studies do not include the recycling factor - which after ten years is estimated to return 50% of retired Li for new batteries.

Yes, you are whacky.

Jim,

sorry, did not see your response until now. You are correct. 500 cycles is not enough.

@treehugger
If you're still sitting on the sidelines without a GM Volt by 2012 you'll be WAY behind the curve. It will be limited production the first year simply to minimize the number of potentially buggy cars in the first run, but they have two battery companies with huge production potential to ramp up the output of vehicles from 2011 forward. I do agree that demand for this fine vehicle will outstrip production INITIALLLY but this car is a game changer, and GM will make $ hand over fist on it. Drive less than 40 or 50 miles a day and never use a drop of oil. (The oft quoted 40 miles AER is at the END of 10 years.

OK, but hand-wringing and catastrophe seem to be hardwired into some people.

Try $10 billion worldwide LiIon by 2015 - strong hybrids will lead the way and be used in tandem w/ICE as an environmental and economic necessity. Everybody wins!

All these reports of Peak Lithium are nonsense. It is based on getting Lithium from a single ore type. And based of the best ores found in but three or four locations. Those sources were more than adequate for the small need heretofor.

When Lithium is a minor need, the miners go for the best ores, and they have done so. As demand swells, lots of other ore bodies will be mined, including shut-in ones in America. Other Lithium bearing minerals will be investigated as Lithium sources too.

Lithium itself is not a rare mineral in the crust of the Earth. If we want it, it is there to be gotten.

I've often wondered about the assumption that the cost of the lithium ion car batteries will be linear with respect to size. If the batteries being tested by GM give a 40 mile range and cost $10,000 will a battery half the size cost $5,000? I don't see that being true. If it was true I would gladly take $5,000 off the price and give up the 40 mile range. Of course half a battery would only give a range of 10 miles on electric due to the need to maintain performance. To me the value of the extended range is the 50 mpg you get with the generator running. The ICE is so much more efficient at a constant speed.

what the dr. fails to account for is that people dont run financial models to determine pay back periods, priuses dont make pure financial sense, yet a million of those are on the road, the interest behind plug ins is orders of magnitudes above the interest hybrids had before entering the market, and several oems are planning production for phev models, in my opionion the market is much much bigger than 1.6 billion

Lithium Supply-Demand Conference
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

What for a presentation by TRU group Inc at the january 2009 Santiago Lithium Supply & Markes conference -

"Sustainable lithium supplies through 2020 in the face of sustainable market growth"
by Edward R Anderson
B.Sc.(Hons)., Dpl.(Marketing Research)., MBA., FCIArb
President, TRU Group Inc

This presentation will be a summary of a major 2008 TRU Group Inc assignment funded by Mitsubishi Corporation. The report titled "Lithium Demand-Supply Outlook through 2020" is a unique in-depth analysis of the underlying determining technologies and applications sustaining both supply and demand through 2020. Issues to be discussed in the presentation will include–

+ the study’s “sustainability” approach and original data estimation methods lithium chloride

+ a different view of lithium in batteries and other major end-uses of lithium

+ supply technology and drivers of sustainable annual lithium production

+ past-vs-future for the global industry: is there really much difference?

+ will and if so when, will the industry face significant disruption through 2020

http://trugroup.com/Lithium-Market-Conference.html

We already saw the Diamond and Omnia in action and you’ re free to replay the game here. The Diamond surely has a few things to offer over the Omnia (VGA screen, smaller size, 3D acceleration, and magnetic stylus) but it also has its issues here and there to make it a tough call indeed. We do hope however that this review will bring you a little closer to deciding your allegiance.

I read most of this long thread, did not find or could have missed a comment on the ecosystem dynamics of the future electric tranpsortation (EV, HEV, PHEVs, etc.) industry. Most comments equate this new industry to the traditional auto industry, hence fix its "slow" and "conservative" culture to an emerging industry whose dynamics we have not fully understood. No surprise, since no one has lived through a global transformation where an old industry is transforming along with a noted degree of dying; and a new one is being born. These are NOT going to be dominated by the same players; the kings and serfs in the new industry will not be the same as in the old.
Oil/gas is fungible and price transparent globaly; and also a non-diversified strategic asset to all nations - so it's death to be dependant on it. Electricity is local and with diversified gen sources, priced locally by local utilities for local markets/countries. GM, Toyota, Honda, Ford, VW kind will not easily "dominate" the new "local" industries as they did the old. There will be giant rooms for many small and medium players to collectively lead the industry at the local grass-root level supported by local gov'ts and communities. They have the speed and innovation and the support of financial community. So rethink some of your time lines under this scenario for electric transportation. Think about mashroom or bamboo shoots after the rain (gov't's $, etc.)

Second, lithium can be recycled and re-used. 28.5 million tons of mineable lithium reserve we have today is able to provide batteries for 19.9 billion EVs if "all" of it is used for EVs. Of course, this is only theoretical. Other uses will need lithium as well. To put it in perspective: if we convert today's 750 million ICE vehicles (roughly in the world) all into EVs, we will use about 3.8% of the total mineable lithium reserve. There are also lithium reserves hard to mine for today's technology. But we wil get there if we must.