It looks like he began his PhD thesis paper before the new fuel economy standards were pushed through Congress (since he published it in Feb 2008). I wonder how the results turn out taking into account the restrictions on fuel economy and the market trends (in new vehicle purchases) due to higher gasoline & oil prices.

If we only have just so many batteries to go around, I might favor 10 times more HEVs to PHEVs or EVs. This could be the choice that we have to make. Would you rather have 10 million HEVs or 1 million PHEVs or 200,000 EVs? Probably some mix of all those and others, but the supply of advanced batteries will not be infinite.

I'd rather just own one vehicle...can't afford the monthly payments on 10 million (or even 200,000). Insurance & parking for that many would be tough as well.

;)

SJC,
The supply may not be infinite, but if we do not have enough advanced batteries to fill demand by 2035, we are in trouble. I can't imagine that being the case. It may be true in 2012 or even 2015, but not 2035.

The you was a collective you. Too many people think only of themselves and not others. This might be the root of many of our problems.

You have to get from here to 2035. We do not go dormant and then suddenly in 2035 we all buy EVs. As far as GHG and fuel availability, it is what we do between now and 2035 and beyond that will make a difference. The trade offs made in using scarce resources is an important factor.

Yet another incredibly stupid study. Absolutely amazing. Gas prices are increasing, that will drive the market to high efficiency, low fuel consumption vehicles, accelerating the turnover of the fleet.

By 2012, PHEV's will be available, such as Prius and the Volt, and they will sell out no matter how many they make.
Gas is projected to be $6.00 or more dollars per gallon by then.

Battery development will not stall, we have a trend and that trend says we will have higher power, lower cost safe Lithium Ion batteries in the future. But right now, GM is testing two different batteries, either one of which meets the performance and cost requirements to make PHEV's cost effective over foreign oil burners by 2012.

I would worry more about the availability of low cost fuel than low cost batteries in 2035. China (and India ?) will supply us with all the low cost battery packs we want to buy, even before 2015.

Improved lithium battery packs requirement and manufacturing will be progressive, but with very high demand in the next few (5-7) years, the availability of some types, sizes may be a problem. However, by 2015, with a few dozens new mass production factories, all demands (and more) will be met. The world should have to problem to produce 50+ million packs per year.

How many millions will be produced in North America? That's a very good question. We may be importing batteries & motors instead of oil, unless we put much more resourses into the future electrified economy.

Massachusetts Institute of Obvious Conclusions

"By 2012,...
...Gas is projected to be $6.00 or more dollars per gallon by then"

I would bet with you that, in 2012, one gallon of gasoline will be MUCH MORE expensive than USD$ 6.-

This study is extremely conservative in its assumptions, and they seem to have no clue about the limitations of the oil industry in the 25 coming years.

It is very clear that the fast increase of oil price will speed up the technological transition as well as the reduction in size of cars but also the intensity of their use as well as their efficienxy improvment. Also teh emergence of alternative ultra-efficient vehicle like Aptera or Venture Car can be a game changer if the price of gaz increase to more than 6$US

Biofuels will make so many advances in the next 5 years that in 10 years we may look back and wonder what all the fuss was. We will still make advances in EVs and fuel cells because those make so much sense if done right, but we will not have to go to war for oil or be held hostage by some oil producing countries.

"The magnitude of the changes required to achieve these reductions is daunting, especially as current trends all run counter to those changes."
—Anup Bandivadekar

All one has to do is look at the right hand column of this page to refute this statement. That graph showing California's declining gas consumption in the past year, to near 2001 levels. Does he really think it will take 25 more years to move that curve back one year?

Steve

Good points, As I said this study being extremely conservative turn to be just wrong. The problem of this study is that they try to predict the future while ignoring the motivations of the future, people will not use more efficient vehicles if they have no motivation to do so, in turn global warming, oil peaking can motivate people to change their attitude and then radical change will hapen. It sounds very clear that peaking of oil or production plateau will hapen somewhere between now and 2020 at the very last, and it will spur tremendous changes (not all desirable or palatable by the way) yes the future will be a mix of more efficient ICE, HEV, PHEV, lighter, more streamlined, Biofuel, Synthetic fuels, more public transportation, shrinking of the urban sprawl, more bicycle as well (and we might find that it is as good as driving) all together this could cut oil dependence drastically.

Never underestimate the ability of people to pay for fuel.
Treehugger suggests $6 gas as an apocalypse but we have fuel at $7 - $9 for the last couple of years and life hasn't stopped.

We just buy smaller, more efficient cars - 50% diesel.

No Apteras, just Renault Clios or Citroen C1s or Honda Jazzs (Fit in the US).

And more people use public transport or walk (!) or cycle.

People in cities have many options, people in outlying areas, less so, but for them diesel should be OK.

Medium sized diesel cars such as Renault Megane / Ford Focus can get > 50 MPG US. This should handle $6 (or $10) gas / gallon for the people of Montana very nicely.

mahoni

Forget the diesel in US it won't happen, when you refine a barrel you produce 20% of diesel an 40 % of gazoline, diesel fuel is already in short supply, if US turn to diesel than prices will skyrocket garantee.

Where I don't know where the threshold of tolerance or pain is in term of price of gas, 6, 7 or even 10$ ? don't forget that in US people drice more for obvious reason of excessive urban sprawl, and their car are bigger so in that sense they are more sensitive to the price of gas, and they have no alternative like public transportation

Most people can't change their house, but they could change their cars.
All they have to do is downsize.
All the high tech possibilities are or will be there, (HEV, PHev, EV etc) but smaller cars can do it more cheaply.
Ford and GM already have efficient cars in Europe (even the petrol ones). And the Japs are there already.
6$ gas might not stop society, but it might stop 3 ton SUVs as commuter vehicles.

The “crisis” we face today was known about over 25 years ago.

In that time no one did much to avert it.
Indeed, 'big-oil' plans to take advantage of the coming shortages for their own profit. We will change because we must.

No matter who it is that leads the change, our path forward is already set. There is only one. We MUST change to electric battery powered cars, and make our electricity from renewable environmentally sustainable sources. We could have switched to electric cars and home rooftop wind and solar generating systems. No one produced these for a mass market. Now we see these products being made by India and China. As they scale up production to meet their own domestic markets, they can ship enough to meet western demand as a sideline.
The new products will be made, but not by the west, no, they will be imported at high cost, and the world will have a pair of new countries as world leaders.

Future generations will study the fall of the Roman Empire and the collapse of the American Economy, because these will have the same root causes, ... no exports except for military conquests, reliance on religion rather than science, and a home population who expected a free ride and became hated by the rest of the world.
Those who fail to learn from the past are destined to repeat the mistakes.

Don't count on peak oil for LOWERING of the global fuel consumption ! It will certainly lower the percentage of oil used as transportation fuel, but we still see a yearly INCREASE in crude production, although the demand increases faster. No mather what the price is, every drop of it is burned ! And because of the high price, many crude sources that used to be uneconomical, are becomming lucrative today (tar sands, deep-sea oil, coal-to-oil, ...) Moreover, these oil-sources are often even more polluting than the traditional oil.
If the price increases even further, it will be because of even higher demand. If the price decreases, it will be because of lower demand or higher production, but still, every drop will be burned.
The drama is that with high current oil prices, many facilities are being built, that make 'historically uneconomical oil' available. Once the huge investments are made, the oil wil be produced, even if the price of crude would drop below its economical threshold (because the huge initial investment is already paid for).
The good thing about actual high oilprice is that technological innovations in alternatives are being made now. The bad thing is that the investments into more fossil fuel exploitation is being made on an even much higher scale.
Once we will have an alternative for fossil fuel, there will need to be political intervention to forbid fossil fuel use. (A very high carbon tax could do the job).
In the mean time, higher oil price is both a sign of ever increasing oil consumption and an enormous economical incentive for investment in even more fossil energy production.

"No matter who it is that leads the change, our path forward is already set. There is only one. We MUST change to electric battery powered cars"

i have to disagree with this. whether you like it or not, our economy is built on petroleum. and i'm not just talking about john and jane smith going to the supermarket, i'm thinking about millions of class 8's running 24/7 to deliver your consumer lifestyle to your door. batteries can't even make a small car go 40 miles, with long recharge times as well. how are they going to move a peterbilt semi hauling 53' of concrete?
people neglect the fact that we already have a huge infrastructure established for fuel delivery, refinery, etc. our problem is that we are not efficiently using the resources we have. instead of trying to "ditch" a technology that will be with us at least another half-century, we should focus on improving it. sure BEV's will play a part in that, but it is not an imperative, all-or-nothing gas vs. electric choice.

i'm not trying to put you down, just keeping things in perspective.

Realistically it will be liquid fuels for quite some time. If gasoline in the U.S. does hit $8 per gallon, the dollar will have suffered a blow, Saudi Arabia, Russia and others will be rolling in it and our economy will take a hit.

It is ironic when Bush said that he would do nothing on the environment because it would harm the economy. It will turn out that the high price of oil harms the economy much more. All those green jobs would actually help the economy, but not the economy for the oil guys.

That is the way Bush is, the does not tell you the whole story. When he says it would be bad for the economy, he means the economy of the oil companies. That is why he can lie with a straight face. To him he is telling the truth, you just misunderstand him by not asking the right questions. He would dodge the answers to those questions anyway, but to him that is not lying. It is pathologic.

Marc your absolutely right. Let's walk before we run. If we can cut consumption by up to 50% with current (and upcoming) technology, that would be a huge impact. We need transition technology right now, this is not going to be a switch we can throw.

Diesel passenger cars will have no discernable impact on diesel prices here in the U.S.

Unlike Europe, we penalize, instead of subsidize, the price of diesel fuel.

Commercial use dominates the diesel market here.

There are very few new "clean enough" diesel passenger vehicles actually shipping this year (they will sell out, but at hefty premiums over sticker)

I had a really good comment on this, but typepad blocked it yet again. I give up on this place. Until we get a decent typepad and a spammer/flammer blocker password system...it is useless.

marc:

You may be both right (for heavy duty trucks and intercity buses) and wrong (for most other vehicles) about the use of liquid fuel for an extended period.

Of course large intercity trucks and buses will use ICE diesel for decades to come. However, operators will find many ways to use much less liquid fuel when it hits $10+/gal. Those vehicles will be better designed, will use smaller, more efficient, super-turbocharged engines and better biofuels. Some level of hybridization, use of trains for very long hauls; cargo collection and end deliveries with electric vehicles (UPS style) etc

Cars, VUS, light trucks, delivery vehicles, city cabs & buses will mostly be electrified within 15-25 years. A few will still be older hybrids, many will be PHEVs but the majority will be lightweight BEVs. All those vehicles will use very little liquid fuel a produce almost no GHG.

Many more will use high speed inter-city and suburban electric trains instead of planes and personnal vehicles.