Which means China's demand for gasoline goes up similarly each year too.

We desperately need batteries cheap and energy-dense enough that the growing Chinese middle class can afford them. The Chinese leadership has to realize that becoming so dependent on foreign energy sources isn't a very good path to be on.

The electric revolution is going to start in North America, Cervus. We have the industrial capacity and the wealth to completely replace our vehicle fleet in ten years or less.

SUV sales have cratered, and the Chevy Volt is green lighted. Let China imitate the 1950s. Let us make our own future.

The scoot:

I agree with you that we have the industrial capacity and most of the financial resources required to switch from ICE to electrified vehicles, but we cannot afford to do it in 10 years. Too many people have very recent ICE vehicles and will be buying a few million more in the next five years. It may take much longer, up to 30 years.

Questions for you:

What will happen to the mid-size, large and very large leased vehicles (gas guzzlers) when they are returned to the dealers in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012? Their resale value will be a lot less than estimates. The lost on each vehicle will be very heavy. Who will absorb to $$$$ millions? What will we do with 50 to 100 million ex-leased gas guzzlers that nobody want or can afford to dry anymore? The total lost (reduction in value) may be as high as the current house market bubble.

Basically, China an India, with fewer ICE vehicles on their hands, are in a much better position to switch to locally produced, much smaller, much lower cost, BEVs.

We can produce $40,000 PHEVs and $100 000 BEVs but they can produce $2500 Tata Nanos (or equivalent) and small $4000 PHEVs and BEVs and they have up to 1 billion potential local and regional buyers.

My guess is that the first nation with 10+ million electrified (4-wheel) vehicles will be China. China already has more than 10 million 2 and 3 wheels electrified vehicles.

India will follow with 10+ million 3 and 4 wheels electrified vehicles.

The third country ith 10+ (4-wheel) electrified vehicles may very well be USA.

Harvey D....Gas guzzler cars & vans are gas guzzlers with 1 person in them. Put 4 to 8 people in them & they become...carpool vehicles!

I've been the greatest detractor of ICE vehicles in gas guzzler forms, in favor of EVs. But we can presently use what we have to make ourselves efficient. Surely, EVs have to be our ultimate goal. But without cost or development...right now we can begin to save.

We let '1.4 people per vehicle' be our mantra. ALL WE HAVE TO DO IS CHANGE OUR MANTRA TO 2,4,6, OR 8. Another better way is to have really effective public transportation we citizens stand behind. The Northeast is ahead in that regard.

My wife works for a tragically traditional company, corporately & individually. Finally...finally, six people will begin a vanpool....

No complicated research is needed to follow the bread crumbs of our own waste. Quit leaving so many bread crumbs.

IMHO, the development and adoption of electric vehicle technology will be a long, painful, and slow process. Most prudent people will sit back and wait for the bugs to be shaken out of this technology by the first adopters. It’s in the interest of the US consumer to watch electric transportation develop rapidly in other countries like China or Japan or India. A final judgment of the various underlying battery technologies alone will take years of real world experience.

In the end, the US costumer will get a debugged and optimized electrical transportation system. So while the US waits and watches this EV development, continued improvement in the variety and efficiency of liquid fueled vehicles may be prudent in the long term.

In summary, sometimes it’s less painful to be off the cutting edge of a technology; at least less expensive.

I'm discovering Axil, that you have much for which to be humble.

Seventeen million Chinese bought electric bikes(EBs) last year...the same number as bought ICE bikes. Unlike our 'recreational' bicycles, Chinese use EBs for work in an effort to individually reduce pollution in desperately poisonous city atmospheres. Electric bike repair stations are popping up all over the populated areas of China. Yes, the Chinese are experimenting with new tech & feeling pain. But unlike your 'waiting' humility, Chinese humility is used to accomplish their goals for a better future.

@ litesong

Yes, yes, maybe I am stuck in the rut of old thinking, the time warn strategy that has worked in the past.

The question is time. How much time is left before the fuel runs out? Yes, that’s the real question.

When that time comes, we will literally face the end of civilization as we know it: oil war: Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse: Pestilence, War, Famine, and Death.

Electric bikes (EBs) can save us; buy time to make the transition. Most able bodied people can use them. They’re cheap within the reach of the average man, but dangerous on our highways and byways: the headers over the handlebars, the whole body bruises; and they’re exposed to the weather; the driving rain, numbing cold, the deadly ice, the soul wrenching heat. It’s not the odd recreational jaunt through the country side on a bright clear sunny day, but the dull daily commuter grind; no matter the illness suffered or the fatigue felt.

The Chinese can do it. Are they made of stunner stuff then we? Do they care more for our world?

But, how to convince the average Joe to ride it, to endure, and look beyond the downside, to the general good?

Yes, a question for the advertisers, the makers of public opinion, and the real shapers of our lives. They’ve done wonders in the past; they won’t fail us now.

Much needs to transpire before the goal is in site. But that goal is urgent, and must be met, and soon.

Yes, time is the question around which all revolves.

the vehicle density in china is extremely low - around 25 or so per 1000 eligible drivers (of age, not w/ license)... the vehicle density in the US is about 998/1000.. when China's density is around 50/1000 they will be the largest vehicle market in the world... but this still represents only the richest 5% of the population having cars... it would be nice if these (wealthy) consumers purchased low-emission, advanced technology, low-impact vehicles... but high gas prices are not going to do it - let's hope prestige and personal responsibility will... for what it's worth...