Twitter headlines« Federal Court Rules That Automakers To Get No Extra Time if California CO2 Regulations Implemented | Main | Mitsubishi Motors and Harbin China Powertrain JV Sign AT Licensing Agreement »
EIA Projects World Energy Use to Grow 50% Between 2005 and 2030; Transportation Accounts for 74% of Increase in Use of Liquids
25 June 2008
 |
| The IEO2008 projects an increase in liquids consumption even in a high-price scenario. The high-price case sees a decline in conventional liquids production compared to today and a stronger increase in unconventionals. Click to enlarge. Data: IEO2008 |
World marketed energy consumption is projected to grow by 50% between 2005 and 2030, driven by economic growth and expanding populations in the world’s developing countries, according to the reference case projection from highlights of the International Energy Outlook 2008 (IEO2008) released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The full IEO2008 will be released in July.
In the reference case, total world energy use rises from 462 quadrillion Btu in 2005 to 563 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and then to 695 quadrillion Btu in 2030. Global energy demand grows despite the sustained high world oil prices that are projected to persist over the long term.
 |
| IEO2008 projects 51% growth in global CO2 emissions from 2005 by 2030. Click to enlarge. |
Average world oil prices in every year since 2003 have been higher than the average for the previous year and prices in 2007 were nearly double the 2003 prices in real terms. The IEO2008 uses oil price cases originally developed in the summer of 2007 for use in the Annual Energy Outlook 2008, which focuses on the US energy outlook. These prices do not reflect the substantial runup in prices that has occurred since that time. In nominal terms, world oil prices in the IEO2008 reference case decline from current high levels to around $70 per barrel in 2015, then rise steadily to $113 per barrel in 2030 ($70 per barrel in inflation-adjusted 2006 dollars).
World use of liquids and other petroleum grows from 83.6 million barrels oil equivalent per day in 2005 to 95.7 million barrels per day in 2015 and 112.5 million barrels per day in 2030 in the reference case. The liquids share of world energy consumption declines through 2030, however, as other fuels replace liquids where possible. In most regions of the world, the role of liquid fuels outside the transportation sector continues to be eroded.
On a global basis, the transportation sector accounts for 74% of the total projected increase in liquids use from 2005 to 2030, with the industrial sector accounting for virtually all of the remainder.
The transportation share of total liquids consumption increases from 52% in 2005 to 58% in 2030 in the IEO2008 reference case. Much of the growth in transportation energy use is projected for the non-OECD nations, where transportation energy use increases at an average rate of 2.9% per year, doubling between 2005 and 2030.
In addition to the reference case, IEO2008 includes a high price case to quantify the uncertainly associated with long-term projections of future oil prices. In the high price case, world oil prices in 2030—at $186 per barrel in nominal terms—are nearly 65% higher than projected in the reference case.
Given current market conditions, it appears that world oil prices are on a path that more closely resembles the projection in the high price case than in the reference case. With higher world oil prices slowing the growth of demand in the long term, world liquids consumption in the high price case totals only 99.3 million barrels per day in 2030, 13 million barrels per day lower than in the reference case.
To meet the increment in world liquids demand in the IEO2008 reference case, the EIA projects total liquids supply in 2030 to be 28.2 million barrels per day higher than the 2005 level of 84.3 million barrels per day—an increase of 33.5%. To reach that reference case level, the EIA assumes:
OPEC producers will choose to maintain their market share of world liquids supply, and that OPEC member countries will invest in incremental production capacity so that their conventional oil production represents approximately 40% of total global liquids production throughout the projection.
Increasing volumes of conventional liquids (crude oil and lease condensates, natural gas plant liquids, and refinery gain) from OPEC members contribute 12.4 million barrels per day to the total increase in world liquids production, and conventional liquids supplies from non-OPEC countries add another 8.6 million barrels per day.
Unconventional resources (including oil sands, extra-heavy oil, biofuels, coal-to-liquids, and gas-to-liquids) from both OPEC and non-OPEC sources are expected to become increasingly competitive in the reference case; the share of conventional oil in the overall liquids supply declines with expanded use of unconventionals.
World production of unconventional resources, which totaled only 2.5 million barrels per day in 2005, increases to 9.7 million barrels per day in 2030, accounting for 9% of total world liquids supply in 2030 on an oil equivalent basis.
Those trends are even stronger in the IEO2008 high price case, which reflects oil prices that are closer to those being paid in mid-2008.
Biofuels, including ethanol and biodiesel, will be an increasingly important source of unconventional liquids supplies, largely because of the growth in US biofuels production. In the IEO2008 reference case, the United States accounts for nearly one-half of the rise in world biofuels production, at 1.2 million barrels per day in 2030.
Other report highlights include:
Coal’s share of world energy use has increased sharply over the past few years, and without significant changes in existing laws and policies, particularly those related to greenhouse gas emissions, robust growth is likely to continue. Coal accounted for 24% of total world energy use in 2002 and 27% in 2005, largely as a result of rapid increases in coal use in China. China’s coal consumption has nearly doubled since 2000, and given the country’s rapidly expanding economy and large domestic coal deposits, its demand for coal is projected to remain strong. In the IEO2008 reference case, coal use expands by 2% per year between 2005 and 2030, and coal’s share of total world energy consumption reaches 29% in 2030.
Concerns about rising fossil fuel prices, energy security, and greenhouse gas emissions support the development of new nuclear generating capacity. World nuclear capacity is projected to rise from 374 gigawatts in 2005 to 498 gigawatts in 2030. Declines in nuclear capacity are projected only in OECD Europe, where several countries (including Germany and Belgium) have either plans or mandates to phase out nuclear power, and where some old reactors are expected to be retired and not replaced. China is projected to add 45 gigawatts of net nuclear capacity over the projection period, India 17 gigawatts, Russia 18 gigawatts, and the United States 15 gigawatts.
Sustained high prices for oil and natural gas encourage expanded use of renewable fuels. Renewable energy sources are attractive for environmental reasons, especially in countries where reducing greenhouse gas emissions is of particular concern. Government policies and incentives to increase renewable energy sources for electricity generation are expected to encourage the development of renewable energy even when it cannot compete economically with fossil fuels. Worldwide, the consumption of hydroelectricity and other renewable energy sources increases by 2.1% per year in the IEO2008 reference case between 2005 and 2030. In contrast, world coal consumption increases by 2.0% per year; natural gas by 1.7% per year; nuclear by 1.5% per year; and liquids by 1.2% per year.
In the IEO2008 reference case, which does not include specific policies to limit greenhouse gas emissions, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise from 28.1 billion metric tons in 2005 to 42.3 billion metric tons in 2030—an increase of 51%. With strong economic growth and continued heavy reliance on fossil fuels expected, much of the increase in carbon dioxide emissions is projected to occur among the developing nations of the world, especially in Asia.
In 2005, non-OECD emissions exceeded OECD emissions by 7%. In 2030, however, non-OECD emissions are projected to exceed OECD emissions by 72%.
Resources
June 25, 2008 in Fuels, Market Background | Permalink | Comments (58) | TrackBack (0)
Comments
Posted by: Anne | June 25, 2008 at 02:38 PM
Such are the things with a planet with 10 billion human inhabitants. The US better find a way to become energy independant and it better figure it out soon.
Posted by: Joseph | June 25, 2008 at 02:43 PM
Exactly right Anne. There's so many unfounded assumptions in there it's not worth the paper it's written on. No doubt it will still be used by governments as the basis for their transport planning. Why let reality get in the way of blind faith in business as usual.
Posted by: critta | June 25, 2008 at 02:44 PM
The reality is that by 2030 most cars (80%) in the US will be at least PHEV. This will not be true for the rest of the world. Sure some major cities around the world might be up to speed but most will not be, kinda like it is today. The US is no longer #1 in pollution and will most likely be #3 by 2010. Even if everyone in the US got an electric car tomorrow, China and India would be right there to gobble up the surplus of liquid fuel.
Posted by: Joseph | June 25, 2008 at 03:03 PM
Joseph, you're not factoring in fuel prices. Your scenario would be viable if fuel prices were declining at least a little bit. You are assuming that the rich countries will move to EV while the developing countries will be stuck with fossil fuels. The reality is that the developing countries are already being priced out of the market. Petrol is no longer a cheap option in these places and they are really hurting.
The only way your scenario will work is if there is massive production and take up of EV's, leading to demand destruction in the oil market. I would love to see this happen but unfortunately revolutions take time. Just look how long it took to make the transition from coal/steam as a transport fuel to oil.
Posted by: critta | June 25, 2008 at 03:42 PM
Joseph:
There are not too many acceptable reasons why USA would switch to PHEVs and BEVs by 2030 and the rest of the world would not.
Large countries with less Oil like Japan, EU, China and India have even more reasons to switch.
Japan and China may be the first two major countries to switch to lighter electrified vehicles. India may be next in line.
Posted by: HarveyD | June 25, 2008 at 04:20 PM
Is it my imagination or do these people at the EIA spend too much time using rulers to draw straight lines from past points with no concept that the world could be anything other than BAU?
Posted by: Neil | June 25, 2008 at 04:31 PM
Interesting to see that they take into account possible "peak oil" in their reference scenario
Posted by: Treehugger | June 25, 2008 at 04:56 PM
No in their "high cost" scenario they accept the possibility of "peak oil". if the IEA accept the idea then it will probably happen
Posted by: treehugger | June 25, 2008 at 04:58 PM
Wow! What a lot of energy...700 thousand million million btu! If the world constructed solar panels with 30 to 40% efficiency in the deserts of the world operating 90 days per year for 8 hours each day........293 billion kilowatts....Wow! Solar farms would have to extend over an area of 300 miles by 300 miles. My calculations might be wrong. Wow!....bit smaller than my state of Washington! We already have some hydro & wind is getting started.
Africa's got plenty of room...Iraq, Iran, Saudia Arabia, China has much land...U.S. has extra room...S.Russia has...Australia has...places in S.America...must be a bit of room in Europe....a bit of room between the people in India?....naaawwww! Just too crazy!
Yeah, its too crazy to believe that Africa could be the Power of the world & pull itself out of starvation. Just too crazy to think war-torn lands & countries could see power develop before their eyes....& Sun Power could settle over the Earth in splendor, glory & Peace....yes, its too crazy!!! My figures have to be wrong.
Posted by: litesong | June 25, 2008 at 05:00 PM
I have a modified 1950's view towards energy, food and water: all of these should be clean, plentiful and cheap. It should be the aim of government to get energy, food and water to be clean, plentiful and cheap. This is fundamental to the free world's national security (or national security of free countries) and environmental protection.
Posted by: ejj | June 25, 2008 at 05:18 PM
It's a no brainer to see that as liquid petroleum supply is dwindling and this, along with the high cost of synthetic liquid fuel, will encourage increasing use of gaseous fuels such as methane and hydrogen.
Posted by: Roger Pham | June 25, 2008 at 05:37 PM
Anne: "Seems like they are expecting a business-as-usual scenario."
It is likely this is the only reality they know. Perhaps even the one they have invested in -- indeed, a reasonable guess is that the EIA is holding a long future energy position.
In any case, most unfortunate. More and more I'm beginning to suspect that that real change will only happen once the majority of baby-boomers have died off.
Posted by: | June 25, 2008 at 06:39 PM
EIA energy and price predictions have always been on the low side during the Bush administration. I have always thought that these low ball numbers were a way to restrict funding of energy R&D in favor war funding. Also Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) suffered through this strategy to the advantage of the auto industry.
In summary, multiply their number by 4 to get a real world prediction.
Posted by: Axil | June 25, 2008 at 06:52 PM
Roger: Hydrogen?, your unbelievable, still advocating for hydrogen after all these years when the writing is clearly on the wall that the world will go to EVs and PHEVs (and maybe some AHG). LMAO
Posted by: Neil | June 25, 2008 at 07:32 PM
Anon...Don't expect the disappearance of baby-boomers to change things. BBs made up the Beat Generation, hippies, VietNam War protesters, & organized environmentalists. A few of us (too few) were happy to stay with 35 to 75MPG vehicles, but America....overwhelmed the rest. America has overwhelmed the generations after us too.
Posted by: litesong | June 25, 2008 at 07:38 PM
The EIA numbers are pure fiction. Don't believe a word of what they say. In 2004 they predicted that oil would reach $35 a barrel by 2030. The Exxon staff employed at the EIA want you to believe there is no urgent need to change our ways.
Posted by: James White | June 25, 2008 at 07:38 PM
The report says liquid fuels remain the most important fuels for transportation because there are few alternatives that can compete with liquid fuels. EIA ignores PHEV and HEV which do not use very little fuel or not fuel at all. The oil companies do not want to see PHEV and HEV as there will be many alternatives to generate electricity.
Posted by: HC | June 25, 2008 at 07:54 PM
Neil,
Millions of automobiles in the world have been converted to CNG usage. What is the number of BEV and PHEV so far world-wide, eh?
Honda, GM and other are going to sell limited number of FCV's in the very near future. Honda has plan to mass produce FCV's within ten years.
HC,
U forgotta mention H2 and Methane for larger cars, trucks, trains, ships and even airplanes. Without these HDV's, world-wide commerce will come to a standstill.
Posted by: Roger Pham | June 25, 2008 at 08:39 PM
Nobody at EIA thinks this is how the word will look. As long as you know the base EIA assumption, the projections are useful. The overriding assumption of these projections is that nothing changes (i.e., this is the world the status quo would result in). Of course, there is zero chance that oil prices are $180 a barrel in 2030 if batteries are approaching cost parity today at $130 a barrel. It only takes 15 years for the U.S. fleet to turn over at $30 a barrel. Likewise for the projections of future coal deliveries when 1 GW/year thin film printing machines are just starting to roll. The projections will look remarkably different in 2 years.
Posted by: Andy | June 25, 2008 at 08:39 PM
Many seem to think the developed world will use EVs and the rest will not. I think that is a fallacy. This is a world where there are no industrialization secrets.
At one time, the developing world bought old auto designs and built the antiques whose tooling had been paid off.
These days that doesn't happen. As a matter of fact, the obverse is occurring. Detroit and the other international companies, build the same vehicles worldwide now, and merely choose what to import/export by market preferences.
But you will be surprised how quickly Ford and GM adapt and simply decide to build their advanced small vehicles in the US.
EVs and PHEVs will be designed, built and sold worldwide.
Posted by: | June 25, 2008 at 08:54 PM
Roger: It's not the CNG that I find so amusing. It's your continued advocacy of H2 in the face of reality. The best H2 can hope for is a few niche applications and possibly use as a range extension fuel for PHEVs.
Posted by: Neil | June 25, 2008 at 10:20 PM
Neil:
If you consider the posibilities of using hydrogen fuel cells for locomotives, ships, long haul trucking, and construction/farm equipment where batteries are totally impractical, then yes.
Posted by: | June 25, 2008 at 11:52 PM
Actually, this shows that the market can solve our problem. With unbelievably massive supplies of coal, and existing processes to create fuel from coal, we need never worry about energy. And that's what this study shows: coal's share increases every year.
Of course, that's if we let the market solve the problem. The result? Massive environmental destruction, but consistent $100/BBL equivalent fuel prices for 300 years.
This underlines that the market is a tool, but must be managed. We must *push* development in the direction of conservation overall, and electrification of transport in particular. The only "we" that can do this is government - of the people, etc.
Or our future is coal, baby....
Posted by: dollared | June 26, 2008 at 12:37 AM
anon: what you have to know about Roger is that he's been flogging H2 for a couple of years on this site to the point where I can only conclude that he works somewhere in the H2 industry.
For locomotives ... they'll go electric (as they already are in Europe). For trucking and farming, they're more likely to use some liquid bio-fuel (algal oil or celulosic ethanol). I would even hazard a guess that where fuel cells are used they'll more likely be using SOFCs than PEMs. H2 was long ago exposed as a bait and switch by the oil industry and there aren't too many people around here that haven't figured that out yet.
ANG is an option.
Posted by: Neil | June 26, 2008 at 12:51 AM
TrackBack
TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d8341c4fbe53ef00e553711bad8833
Listed below are links to weblogs that reference EIA Projects World Energy Use to Grow 50% Between 2005 and 2030; Transportation Accounts for 74% of Increase in Use of Liquids :
They seem to be ignoring the electric car. Are we all nutters to believe that nearly all cars sold in 2030 will be electric or at least PHEV, and use of liquids in transportation will actually drop dramatically?
Where will this 74% increase come from? Will this oil be found? Seems like they are expecting a business-as-usual scenario.