Once a full infrastructure is in place, the BEV will become the "car of choice" for consumers.

The 1/4 million unit figure may be far too small an estimate.

Annon:

I agree with you. Israel, Denmark and Portugal may have more than 250 000 EVs on their roads by 2015.

For all of Europe, the number may be as much as 10 times higher, if the high performance batteries can be built fast enough.

Battery leasing-exchange may solve the higher purchase price + better driving range for many, but after a few years (with better range = 400+ Km between charges) most people may prefer to buy (or lease) the battery pack with the vehicle.

My instincts are that 250K is way low.
I vow never to buy another gas car. As soon as a BEV is available i will buy one. I get dismal milage from my jeep cherokee but refuse to purchase a better milage gasoline auto. Even if the GM Volt is a piece of junk I will buy one just to support the movement!
My instincts tell me there are millions of people who feel the same.

Wait a minute... Didn't Smith just pull out of the US EV market?? I thought electrification was dead. Or is it me?

Smith didn't pull out of the US market, they postponed their entry into it.

Doornail,
Rather than establish a major production facility in the US with the capacity to produce up to 10,000 electric trucks per year from 2010 as announced in December (earlier post), Tanfield said that any expansion “is now likely to be executed through a joint venture with a business that already has facilities and infrastructure in the US in a related industry.”

...sounds like their taking a more cautious approach, rather than fully commiting.

Will EVs save us from escalating oil prices in time? At present rates this time next year we will be averaging around $260 a barrel. It seems inevitable that a world recession will occur before large scale adoption of EVs can be accomplished. How much will such a recession then slow EV adoption? It may be a very long and painful process. What about freight transport? Air travel? Shi#$%t!

Will EVs save us from escalating oil prices in time?

No, Gas prices will remain high. Cheap oil is over.

But BEVs will give you the option to drive for under 10cents a kilometer, including the cost of car purchase.

More, the adoption of BEV technology will encourage the tandem adoption of renewable energy. Our road off oil is now blazed and surveyed, we just need to pave it with some tax structure changes like Israel did.

Once people see the BEV working and available in one country, then people in other countries will DEMAND the same new technology.

The trouble is, once electric vehicles become everyone's choice and there are millions in use, governments who were collecting revenue by taxing gasoline will tax EVs instead!

Nevertheless, I agree that EVs are the future, and that combustion engines are reaching the end of the road - as far as transport is concerned.

And I don't see it as a gradual process - more likely to involve a tipping point, at which stage the carmakers who have not embraced EVs will be closing factories in dramatic fashion.

Stan,

to date no major car maker has NOT announced an EV plan and or battery JV. Everyone knows where we are headed. If it hadn't been for that war mongering Busch we would all be cruising in electric luxury today!

BTW, how soon will it take the Feds to demand the electrical energy tax? And the range-extender tax? And the point of sale excise tax on battery capacity?

What would happen if we traded in a few weapons programs for a North American five ring super-grid and HVDC? That might be a legit investment in national security!