“I did crunch the numbers once on large field tractors ...”

When it comes to reducing ghg and imports of oil, corn ethanol is already way ahead of these EIA projects for H2 and forms of BEV.

“A few people still insist that using nuclear, wind and solar to generate electricity to be used to split water into hydrogen is somehow economically viable.”

Nuclear would be used in the form of modular high temperature gas cooled reactors to provide high temperature process steam to produce H2 at fertilizer, chemical, refineries type facilities. This technology will not be commercial until 2025. By then we will have drilled our way out of the energy crisis.

There is an excellent article on H2 powered futur car in "The Economist" of this past week. There are not tech guys so they are not bias but their conclusion is clear the H2 Car will stay whata it is "the car of the futur" for a long time to come, they particularly insist on the fact that HEV/PHEV/EV/Biofuel and improvement of ICE are incremental steps when H2 is a giant step. So the conclusion is clear for the next 20 years we have enough on our plate with HEV/PHEV/EV/improved ICE/Biofuels forget H2. Big trucks will work fine with CNG, but the revival of the rail will kill 50% of truck traffic

"And once you can make your own energy and power your own car in an efficient and simple way, then who cares how much you drive or the size of your vehicle? It is your energy and none of their business."

A terror greater than nuclear holocaust for energy insiders. If you are one, DO NOT watch this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZxnEQssJ4FQ

Yeesh when companies only look short term you whine then when they look long term and plan and work toward a long term goal you whine even more..

H2 gets all the money it does because its worth it even before you ever think of cars. And as it so happens we have indeed managed to make enough progess to know h2 cars are not just possible but definete.

There is more than one country in the world.
They are not all run for the benefit of the oil companies.
Once the batteries are right, car companies in these countries will start producing PHEVs or serial hybrids (or whatever works best) and start selling them.

And that will be that, irrespective of what Detroit and the 7 sisters want.

They couldn't stop the Japanese cars, and they won't be able to stop the PHEVs if they work properly and oil is expensive.

The eventual move to battery electricity and H2 as energy currency is simply based on efficiency and cost. The time will come when petroleum and NG reserve for transportation fuel will all be used up. Then, we will be left with renewables, coal and nuclear, which can't be directly used to power transportation without an energy currency.

Synthetic hydrocarbon will be more expensive and less efficient than H2. With H2, all you need is electric power and an electrolyzer and you can synthesize your fuel everywhere. Have your own roof-top PV panel and an electrolyzer and you can produce H2. If your electrolyzer can generated compressed H2, then less energy will be used to compress it further to fuel your car. H2 will give everyone energy independence.

Of course, you can't wait until petroleum is totally consumed before adapting your infrastructure to H2 and battery electricity, because then, it'll be too late. Your economy will be destroyed. So, we must start adapting our infrastructure gradually and invest money little by little yearly for the eventual H2 and battery electric economy so that we won't get caught with our pants down again and again like in 1973, and recently, when petroleum shortages sent prices up the roof.

Within a relative short time, BYD China will produce enough low cost 5 KWh packs for up to 10 milion PHEV-20/25 Km a year.

Others (combined) could produce at least twice as many packs for a total of 30 million PHEV-20/25 Km/yr.

At that rate, worldwide fuel consumption will start to drop quickly.

By 2015/16, low cost 10KWh packs will be produced at twice that rate. Another 60 million PHEV-40/25 Km a year will further reduce fuel consumption.

By 2020/21, low cost 20++ KWh packs will be produced in very large quantities for millions PHEV-80/100 Km and BEVs.

By 2030, pure ICE vehicles will be progressively retired to museums.

I'll wait for the LG, A123 or Tesla batteries.

Quoth I_Vote_For_H2:

The only H2 infrastructure that makes sense is this:

- Hydrogen is produced by nuclear power plants from ocean water, distribution networks are then necessary
- A hybrid power grid will consist of a pipeline for supercooled H2 and a high-capacity electricity distribution grid made up of superconducting materials....
This solves the current problem of electricity grid losses which currently amount to around 7%.

Please, do a little critical thinking before you post.

Fred:  Consider that most freight can move to rail, and even a farm tractor could swap batteries several times a day.  Zinc-air fuel cells can be refuelled rather quickly, and if worse comes to worst there is always ammonia as a combustion fuel.

Fred: hydrogen vehicles: can't we put a bag over the vapor port and keep it on board? It's supposed to be 99.5% pure water.

Mahonj wrote: "They couldn't stop the Japanese cars, and they won't be able to stop the PHEVs if they work properly and oil is expensive."

Well said!

This study is simply "politically correct". The assumptions are heavily on H2 side but still demonstrating unfeasibility.

1. 40 miles PHEVS will be available in 2010 (Chevy Volt), not 2050 like electric ones.
2. 130 mpg in all electric modes (40 miles) for PHEV is mistake. It is average mpg. In all electric mode no fuel needed.
3. Battery development is much faster than H2 fuel cell development; therefore in 2050 the mainstream will be EV's
4. No options are investigated with algae diesel or cellulosic ethanol or even solar methanol. They are much more viable options than H2. Even solar panel (film) on lorry roof much better possibbilty for fuel reduction.

Correction:

1. 40 miles PHEVS will be available in 2010 (Chevy Volt), not 2050 like FCV ones.

"if worse comes to worst there is always ammonia as a combustion fuel"

Engineer, do you have any idea how energy intensive the production of ammonia from coal/oil/NG really is?

I just saw Jamie Lee Curtis bragging about her Honda FCX Clarity on the Tonight Show with Jay Leno. Very impressive. FCV's are here today! FC technology is advancing at breathtaking pace. Less and less of precious metal will be required, and eventually, probably none will, thus setting the stage for mass production.

Don't forget the Hydrogen Combustion engine, either.
The H2 economy does not represent a major challenge as this article has purported. All it will take for early adopters to do is to equip his home with a low-cost non-platinum-based electrolyzer from GE, and a H2 compressor to charge up the H2 tank of the car. In fact, having a H2 producer at home will greatly encourage more roof-top PV's, since H2 will be produced during the sunny hours and stored, without requiring costly batteries. On the other hand, a BEV, if parked at work, cannot take advantage of a home PV panel. With ramming up production of PV panels, future prices will plummet just like the cost of LCD TV panels of today. We've seen a 10-folds reduction inthe price of large-screen LCD TV's. With a little imagination, a lot will be made possible in the future.

I remember this guy asking how do you plan to make enough h2 to power the cars for 10 billion people and how do you expect to make enough biofuel AND food to feed them....

And I said.. I dont. I just plan to make enough h2 for me and enough biofuel and food for me.. And a realy bloody big gun to deal with everyone else.

I think the first comment is spot on. You can only doubt which technology will win, if you compare current EV technology with projected, possible 2050 FCV technology.

Follow the money: EV technology is already on the road in the form of hybrids. Within a few years, car companies will be earning cold, hard cash with PHEV's. Consumers will compare PHEV's on electric-only range. This means car manufacturers will have to put more money in EV research to stay competitive. The few FCV projects will be killed to spend the money where they can earn money: (PH)EV's.

And then of course there's the infrastructure advantage: you can fuel your (PH)EV at home, and your FCV nowhere. Gas stations will need an investment of next to nothing to offer recharging stations for (PH)EV's, whereas an H2 filling station + H2 logistics is a costly business.

Given these two huge advantages of (PH)EV's, I simply cannot see any scenario in which H2 can win.

Unless of course low temp, highly efficient electrolyzing on demand sneaks out.

In ohter words: a Hollywood scenario.

>>"The few FCV projects will be killed to spend money where they can earn money"

Well, in fact, FCV projects are currently on-going for most major auto makers even though they are not making any money on them. Ditto for PHEV projects currently on-going. Why choose when both FCV and PHEV can be developed at the same time?

Low-temp electrolyzers can be cheaply recently without using Platinum, like the use of Norel plastic by GE. Low temp electrolyzers have been made with 85% efficiency.

Optimized H2-combustion engine can exceed diesel in efficiency, somewhere around 50%, with very rapid combustion, very lean combustion hence cooler combustion and less heat loss, no ignition delay period for fuel vaporization hence no need for high compression ratio like Diesel. Lower compression ratio means lighter engine and less friction. Matched with a full HEV drive train and it can almost match hybrid FCV in overall efficiency, at more predictable affordable cost.

Roger, when will the first car manufacturer sell FCV's at a profit? Name me a year.

It seems that, for now, FCV's could be afforded by the few people who have Ferraris or Aston Martins only!!

Provided VW alreday achieved 1 litre per 100km in the concept car 1L, I think they could easily develop a diesel hybrid that could do 2 litres per 100 km (50 km with 1 litre of diesel) with interior space for 4 persons.

<<"Roger, when will the first car manufacturer sell FCV's at a profit? Name me a year."

Anne, according to Honda and Huyndai, they plan to sell large numbers of FCV's in ~ ten years, presumably at a profit. Quite an ambitious schedule...I've got to admit...but this, from two independent major companies.

Anne,
in the movie: Who killed the electric car?
the H2, FC car was the "excuse" to eliminate the EV1 electric car.

Leave it to the government to turn everything upside down and backwards. It's actually quite simple to convert water to hydrogen and oxygen gas through electrolysis or heat and magnetic fields (steam reforming). The process that requires most of the energy is separating and purifying the hydrogen for storage. But it is not necessary to separate the hydrogen and oxygen for use in an internal combustion engine. On demand production methods are available so that the energy robbing storage is not needed. By adding a small amount of hydrogen to any internal combustion engine, ignition lag is greatly reduced and combustion flame speeds are much faster (ref: 1977 NASA study). So, much greater fuel economies at greatly reduced emission levels can be realized with existing fuel systems. Also, alternative fuels can be used without additional hardware changes.