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Study Suggests Consumer Demand for Plug-in Hybrid Technology May Be Higher Relatively in Europe than in US; Expectations for Electric Range are High in Both Regions
18 September 2008
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| Likely PHEV buyers in both Europe and the US have high expectations for mileage resulting from a single charge. Click to enlarge. |
Figures from the annual AutoTECHCAST Europe study conducted by Harris Interactive show that 20% of Europeans are very (13%) or extremely likely (7%) to purchase a vehicle that has plug-in hybrid technology, not taking into account estimated market prices. A further 25% are likely to make that purchase.
In comparison, the earlier Harris Interactive AutoTECHCAST US found that 15% of Americans are very (11%) or extremely likely (5%) (percentages do not add precisely due to rounding) to purchase a vehicle with plug-in technology, with an additional 17% likely to make that purchase.
The expectations for electric range from a single charge are high for both groups, with 86% of both the European and US respondents who are likely to purchase the technology expecting more than 40 miles from a single charge. Thirty-eight percent of Europeans expect more than 100 miles from a single charge, and 44% of Americans expect that type of range.
The study reveals that 30% of European consumers who are likely to purchase the plug-in hybrid technology in their next vehicle expect to charge it at least once a day or more. Once the vehicle is plugged in, they expect to charge it for around 5.1 hours. A similar study in the US shows that Americans expect to charge their vehicles slightly more often than their European counterparts—56% anticipated charging their car at least once daily and for approximately 6 hours at a time.
The convenience of plugging in a vehicle every night instead of filling it up at the gas station every week is very appealing to plug-in hybrid considerers, with 72% of respondents in Europe and 84% of respondents in the US preferring the plug-in option.
It’s clear that people are open to this new approach of adding energy to the vehicle. The fact that drivers now prefer to conduct this task daily, versus once a week, shows real promise for the technology.
—Stephen A. Lovett, director of automotive and transportation research at Harris Interactive
The study also highlights that further consideration is needed of the infrastructure required to support a population of plug-in hybrid vehicles. Among the European consumers surveyed, 21% of those considering buying a plug-in hybrid indicate that they currently park on the street when at home. Nine percent of Americans considering buying a plug-in park on the street.
While consumers are increasingly open to this technology, major changes in the infrastructure in both Europe and the US will be critical for consumers to access the desired benefits of this technology. Our research shows that the gap between demand and available “charging supply” needs to be addressed. Due to a combination of higher fuel costs, concentrated driving conditions, and cultural differences that cater to high levels of environmental protection, Europeans have historically been more adopting of technologies that contribute to additional efficiency in their vehicles. Mounting economic and environmental trends in the US, however, will likely start to level the playing field in the future among US and European consumers.
—Stephen A. Lovett
Europeans also show significant European interest in start-stop technology. Before market prices are brought into the equation, 27% of those surveyed in the Europe study said they would be very (18%) or extremely likely (9%) to purchase start-stop system technology for their next vehicle.
In the US, 13% are very (8%) or extremely likely (5%) to purchase start-stop technology, according to Harris Interactive.
The 2008 AutoTECHCAST Europe study was conducted online within the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Germany and Spain by Harris Interactive between 12 May and 30 June 2008 among 19,933 European adults aged 18 and over and who own or lease a vehicle, have a valid driving license, have at least one household vehicle, and own a listed European model—2001 or newer. Results were weighted as needed for age, gender, education, region and income and to properly represent European vehicle segment owners. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.
The US AutoTECHCAST study was conducted online within the United States by Harris Interactive between 28 December 2007 and 14 January 2008 among 12,891 US adults ages 18 and over and who own or lease a vehicle, have a valid driver’s license, have at least one household vehicle, own a listed North American model—2003 or newer, and are at least 50% involved in the decision to buy their next household vehicle. Results were weighted as needed for age, gender, education, region and income and to properly represent US vehicle segment owners. Propensity score weighting also was used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.
September 18, 2008 in Europe, Market Background, Plug-ins | Permalink | Comments (20) | TrackBack (0)
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Comments
This survey sounds flawed. It looks to me as thought he respondents cannot differentiate between electric-only range and overall range on a tankful. No articles on PHEV's discuss battery-only ranges of greater than 60 miles. This is clearly a misunderstanding of the technology and its capabilities.
Posted by: Mark Gutting-Kilzer | Sep 18, 2008 10:21:26 AM
Battery charge time [or even battery swap time] matters. If I can plug my car in at the shopping mall parking lot or the restaurant and let it charge while I shop/dine, I can stretch many more miles worth of errands on a "small tank".
As the mileage gets bigger, things change a bit. If a vehicle could get 200 miles between charges but charge in 30 mins, I just travel with a meal midway, not a real big deal.
Of course, if the batteries are designed to be entirely swapped out, and instead are the property of the refueling center, then filling up the tank takes a few minutes, just like it does now. That isn't the current direction of EVs, but it might head that way eventually.
Posted by: stomv | Sep 18, 2008 10:31:17 AM
"If a vehicle could get 200 miles between charges" then you are no longer in the realm of PHEV's. PHEV's are intended to cover the daily commute and related sub trips on a single charge. The internal combustion engine kicks in for trips longer than that and STILL achieves fuel economy 30%-100% better than a conventional vehicle.
I'm also concerned with swapped battery proposals. Anyone who has swapped an LP gas canister and brought home a dud that lasted half as long as the one they traded knows how uneven the quality can be. Now imagine yourself trading a battery that consistently delivered 200 miles on a charge for one that made you recharge after 100. You'd be pretty ticked off.
Posted by: Mark Gutting-Kilzer | Sep 18, 2008 10:41:26 AM
The most egregious flaw in the survey is the category of battery only ranges. The first category describes a range of 0-20 miles. No-one wants a PHEV that has a battery-only range of ZERO miles! The current Prius has a battery-only range of 1 to 2 miles depending on the state of charge prior to driving.
The Chevy Volt battery-only range is expected to be realistically around 11 miles. The range categories in the survey should have been more reflective of this current technology:
10-20 miles, 20-30 miles, 30-40 miles, 40-50 miles, 50+ miles
Moreover, the formulation of the questions are poor. For example, the survey asks "How likely would you be to purchase the technology on your next new vehicle?" It requires some clarifying context like, "If these vehicles were available today . . ."
Due to its poor design, this survey provides no useful data.
Posted by: Mark Gutting-Kilzer | Sep 18, 2008 10:58:43 AM
My biggest concern with the uptake of PHEVs is in recharging. Living in a downtown core or even slightly uptown of the core likely means no personal driveway, street parking, or a common parking garage spot. All of these scenarios are less-than-ideal to someone who wants to conveniently, cheaply, and securely plug-in. This will likely translate into increased pressure to extend suburbia and outer-suburbia, those who have the benefit of 'exclusive access' personal property hook-ups. The growth of suburbia is proportional to the cheapness and time of the commute (and real estate costs) - which is the type of cheapness that comes from PHEVs. For all others, this will mean the same ridiculous electricity price mark-ups, fluctuations, and gouging that occurs at current gas facilities. Complexities with wiring and metering at multi-family units will make take-up slow and troublesome. The municipality is unlikely to protect those who need to recharge (like a rent-control type scheme). Despite cost reductions and environmental benefits, if its not convenient (and at least a little sexy) people won't do it en masse.
Posted by: Jer | Sep 18, 2008 12:04:28 PM
I think this is a very useful and informative survey. Its purpose is not to promote, inform, or sell PHEVs, but merely to gather data on people's thinking and expectations - and if that knowledge and those expectations are completely out of line with where the technology is or could be - then great. We now have the information to help assist consumers to make informed choices and not get them to buy into something that doesn't fit their needs/wants. If the average range of a PHEV is out of the normal driving commute - requiring an extra charge or unwanted gas-engine startup then consumers shouldn't be betrayed into thinking they have bought into the 'answer'. Manufacturers will simply need to make their 'product' fit the market - the consumer is not going to sacrifice to 'fit' into unready technology.
Posted by: GT | Sep 18, 2008 12:14:06 PM
Mark, not sure what 11 mile range you are writing about. The GM Volt will have 40 miles all electric range in the city test mode. And there are interviews where Boniface has said that the measurement will be at end of life or more than 100,000 miles. Since they are only using 50% of the battery packs capacity, it will deplete the battery capacity much slower than the older, full depletion cycle NiMhs.
I agree that the survey is lame, but it is useful in limited way to gauge consumer acceptance of electric vehicles, if nothing else.
Posted by: ziv | Sep 18, 2008 12:41:49 PM
Simply looking at how hard it is to tell if the questions were asked "correctly" to get meaningful data tells us that there is a huge educational problem in front of us for the average Joe to make the right decision.
When people really understand what "all electric range" means and know what is realistically achievable, then this gets easier. But right now, we're probably going to have to come up with a rating system.
Perhaps a "plug" symbol for every 20 miles of electric range? This car costs $25,000 has a 4 star safety rating and a 2 plug electric rating.
It's just like putting an MPG rating on cars today. If a car has both an MPG rating and "plug" rating, then it's a hybrid.
Posted by: Dave | Sep 18, 2008 12:54:34 PM
I suspect the biggest issue is that people don't really understand the benefits of EVs and PHEVs. It will take time to change 100 years of programming. Even if you explain that they will charge at home, they still internally envision weekly trips to the gas station. That partly explains the excessive emphasis on recharge time.
Another factor is that drivers will want a PHEV that provides an all-electric range that matches their daily commutes. In the US, millions of people commute more than 50 miles one-way to work. For best effect, a PHEV needs to cover a daily trip to work and back on the battery alone. Charging stations at workplaces will no doubt become common but the downside is that it will add to the peak load on the grid.
Posted by: Kevin | Sep 18, 2008 1:54:21 PM
The key variable is annual fuel consumption, electric range is only an intermediate one.
You want a vehicle that, given a certain battery capacity (in terms of nominal charge, "long life" charge, cost etc, gets the lowest annual fuel cost for the journeys a person does.
As you increase the battery capacity, you would expect this to go down, but the curve will vary from person to person. someone with a 10 mile commute ad the ability to charge in the office might hardly ever need to add liquid fuel, someone else with a 50 mile commute might need a lot of liquid.
You could optimise a car for longer commutes either with a larger battery, or a diesel engine.
You might buy a 10Kwh battery and use it for a year, and then, based on an actual year's driving, decide you need a larger battery, or that you do now - or a smaller one and sell 4KWh back to the garage.
You could have software in the car to advise you - it would probably be reasonable accurate after 1 or 2 weeks daily driving - it could predict the effect of adding more capacity, or the effect of adding a charging station at work.
In fact, if you think about it, you could write that software now, and add it to all cars, and read it out during services - to better prepare for the switch to electric power.
Posted by: mahonj | Sep 18, 2008 2:26:03 PM
Just like other things technological, education will come to segments of the population that aren't early adopters over time.
Once the technology is on the road, more people will "get it". Before then, many will have a hard time wrapping their heads around new concepts.
Stephen
Posted by: | Sep 18, 2008 2:32:52 PM
Er, don't know what's so hard about this. Billions use consumer electronics products. Some 50% of those are portable devices requiring daily, semi-daily recharging. So now people are told, you gotto recharge your car - like your cell phone. Is this hard?
In a PHEV if you don't recharge you gotto put in gas. In an EV, if you don't recharge your car goes dead - just like your cell phone. How hard is this?
Good study. These guys are pros.
Posted by: NRG Nut | Sep 18, 2008 7:10:51 PM
Actually, it is a worthless study. Any response is to these questions are meaningless unless price IS taken into account. While Chevy has yet to publish a price for the Volt, it is likely to cost at least $40K. While Honda has yet to establish a price for the Insight, it is likely to cost around $20K.
Now who in their right mind would prefer to spend $20K extra for a Volt in return for fuel savings amounting to a couple hundred dollars a year?
If somebody asked me would I prefer a Lexus over a Kia without considering price, the answer would be pretty simple. It would not be so simple if the question stated that I would have to pay $20K extra for the Lexus.
And now that I think about it, I'd probably be more likely to spend $20K extra for a Lexus in comparison to a Kia, then I would be to spend $20K extra for a Volt in comparison to an Insight.
Posted by: stepahnie goldivase | Sep 18, 2008 9:10:18 PM
stepahnie goldivase,
It is realy a question whether PHEV's will be mainstream. If they become mainstream the prices will go down. Or may be they will never be mainstream due to battery development and EV will become mainstream. Hard to predict.
Posted by: Darius | Sep 18, 2008 11:39:56 PM
The convenience of plugging in a vehicle every night instead of filling it up at the gas station every week is very appealing to plug-in hybrid considerers
Another nail in the coffin of hydrogen cars.
Posted by: Anne | Sep 19, 2008 3:18:49 AM
@stomv:
Battery swapping will never happen. The first reason is that there is no necessity. All proposed (PH)EV's have batteries that can charge in 10 minutes.
The second reason is that it limits the freedom of car manufacturers to optimize the design of their cars. Look at the battery placement in the Volt, how it differs from the Prius.
I am pretty sure that the battery will be placed all over the car in smaller units as opposed to one big block.
Posted by: Anne | Sep 19, 2008 3:25:19 AM
Couple of issues spring to mind.
Firstly, ab initio, I would have expected European users to be open to PHEVs with less range than Americans - commute distances are normally shorter.
Secondly, the big negative in the UK is the absence of garages in modern homes. Housing density means tha tgaragaes don't get built, or are too small for even the most compact of European cars. I don't fancy running a power lead up to 100 metres down the street to plug into my car overnight, thanks.
Posted by: DavidB | Sep 19, 2008 5:05:23 AM
The Chevy Volt battery-only range is expected to be realistically around 11 miles.The Volt has 8 kWh usable. 720 WH/mile is several times the energy consumption reported for other vehicles of similar size.
The municipality is unlikely to protect those who need to recharge (like a rent-control type scheme).This is contradicted by experience. Even Chicago restricts some parking to vehicles with residential stickers, and handicapped-only spaces are everywhere. We can expect to see assigned spaces at first, followed by entire streets with wiring to meters or posts.
Posted by: Reality Czech | Sep 19, 2008 8:32:22 AM
"The GM Volt will have 40 miles all electric range in the city test mode."
. . . Maybe with the second generation model, but GM will be tossing out features left and right to meet the delivery date or, like the Ford Escape Hybrid, it will arrive two years late. Version 1.0 is likely to disappoint all but the fanboys.
Posted by: Mark Gutting-Kilzer | Sep 19, 2008 10:44:31 AM
This guy is right. Other car makers are WAY ahead of the GM reVolt in battery technology and design. In particular the Chinese EVs already here blow the GM stuff out of the water. The Flybo is here today and it costs only $$ 12,500.00 So maybe when the big leaders at these old car companies get smart they realize - game is over. Small, light weight, 70 mile range, fast recharge - Asia wins one more time!
http://www.edmunds.com/insideline/do/News/articleId=120129
Posted by: Ed Mundo | Sep 19, 2008 3:12:46 PM
