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Transportation Scenarios for Meeting California’s 80% GHG Reduction Target by 2050

8 September 2008

80in501
None of the “Silver Bullet” scenarios explored by the UC Davis researchers achieve the 80in50 reduction goal, implying that no single technology can successfully meet California’s 80% emission reductions goal; a portfolio approach is necessary. Click to enlarge.

A new study by researchers at the Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis analyzes mitigation options and presents future scenarios for meeting California’s ambitious greenhouse gas emission reductions goal (80% below 1990 levels by 2050, earlier post), focusing specifically on the transportation sector, including light-duty, heavy-duty, agricultural, off-road, rail, aircraft, and marine vehicles.

The report, 80in50 Scenarios for Deep Reductions in Greenhouse Gas Emissions from California Transportation: Meeting an 80% Reduction Goal in 2050, concludes that such a deep reduction in GHG emissions from the California transportation sector is challenging but potentially feasible. While no one single mitigation option can meet the target by itself, the goal can be met in multiple ways, utilizing a combination of technological and behavioral options. The study focuses on three main areas: travel demand, fuel efficiency and fuel carbon intensity.

There are three sets of scenarios presented and discussed in the study: reference, silver bullet, and 80in50.

Reference Scenario. The reference scenario describes a business-as-usual future in 2050 in which transportation activity and technology development follow historical trends. The only expected improvement in this scenario is a modest reduction (35%) in energy intensity, which corresponds to a 50% improvement in average vehicle fuel economy.

However, since population is expected to double, and transport intensity is expected to increase moderately (23%) by 2050, total in-state travel demand is nearly 2.5 times the 1990 value and nearly four times the 1990 value overall. The average carbon intensity of transportation fuels is 1% higher than in 1990, as petroleum-based fuels are assumed to remain dominant but unconventional oil sources are utilized to a greater extent.

The Reference scenario leads to a 62% increase in GHG emissions from 1990 to 2050. In-state emissions reach 317 MMTCO2e in 2050 while in overall they reach 421.5 MMTCO2e. Aviation is responsible for the greatest increase in emissions from 1990 because, in spite of slightly more efficient airplanes, demand for air travel is expected to grow rapidly in the coming decades. Freight transport—carried in aircraft, heavy trucks, rail, and large marine vessels—is another area that is expected to continue growing rapidly, contributing to the growth in California’s transportation emissions.

Silver Bullets. Silver Bullet scenarios summarize the extent to which single mitigation strategies may reduce emissions in isolation. Silver Bullet (SB) scenarios include:

  • Moderate efficiency: Uses moderate advances in conventional technologies to achieve doubling of vehicle efficiency from 1990.

  • High efficiency: Breakthroughs in conventional technologies to achieve nearly triple (270%) vehicle efficiency from 1990.

  • Hydrogen-intensive: Applies fuel cell vehicles and low-carbon hydrogen fuels aggressively across most subsectors, except aviation.

  • Electricity-intensive: Electric vehicles (BEVs and PHEVs) and very low-carbon electricity are applied across many subsectors except marine and aviation.

  • Biofuel-intensive: Low-carbon biofuels are the primary fuels in conventional vehicles (low efficiency) in all transport subsectors.

  • Per capita miles traveled (PMT): Reductions in travel demand for LDVs and aviation, low vehicle efficiency, no alternative fuels.

In these scenarios, gains in efficiency are largely negated by significant increases in travel demand that are expected over the next several decades.

The Biofuel-intensive scenario achieves only a small reduction in emissions, even though low-carbon biofuels are applied quite substantially across all transportation subsectors at a 60% fuel share. This scenario requires a large quantity of biofuels (16.4 billion gge), which would consume about 15-20% of total potential US biofuel production under optimistic estimates. If the additional emissions associated with land-use change (LUC) are included, the benefits of biofuels could disappear, and emissions could increase.

The Hydrogen-intensive and Electricity-intensive silver bullet scenarios fail to achieve the 80% reduction goal mainly because it is challenging to apply electricity and hydrogen technologies across all subsectors, especially in aviation and marine transport.

Reducing per-capita travel demand may reduce future emissions significantly, but the PMT scenario only achieves an 8% reduction from 1990 emissions. This is due to the projected doubling of state population by 2050, which more than negates reductions in per-capita travel demand.

80in50. Combining elements of the silver bullet scenarios in a portfolio approach can meet the emissions goal. The researchers presented three 80in50 scenarios. The first two focus primarily on technology—moderately high vehicle efficiencies with low-carbon biofuels, and electric drive using electricity and hydrogen. The third considers actor-based decisions to reduce travel demand and energy intensity. Population is the same in each scenario, equal to twice its value in 1990.

80in502
Comparison of 80in50 scenarios: Final emissions by vehicle type and emission reductions by strategy. Click to enlarge.

In the Efficient Biofuels 80in50 scenario, switching from petroleum to biofuels accounts for 232 MMTCO2e of GHG emission reductions, and switching to electricity reduces emissions an additional 40 MMTCO2e. For electricity, vehicle efficiency improvements (mostly through plug-in hybrid electric vehicle penetration in the light-duty sector) account for nearly two-thirds of the emission reductions (27 MMTCO2e), while the lower carbon-content of electricity as a fuel (14 MMTCO2e) comprises the balance. The broad applicability of biofuels in conventional combustion engines allows significant reductions in the GHG-intensity of all modes of transport in this scenario.

This scenario demands a large quantity of low-carbon biofuels, however. As in the Biofuel-intensive silver bullet scenario, this would consume about 15-20% of total potential US biofuel production under optimistic estimates.

In the Electric-drive 80in50 scenario, the largest portion of emission reduction comes from the use of FCVs and hydrogen fuel (159 MMTCO2e), although electric vehicles also contribute to emission reductions (105 MMTCO2e) mainly from PHEVs and BEVs in the LDV sector. Approximately two-thirds of the emission reductions in the scenario can be attributed to improvements in fuel economy associated with electric-drive vehicles (FCVs, EVs, and PHEVs), while most of the remainder can be attributed to the use of low-carbon intensive hydrogen and electricity.

The two largest contributors in the Actor-based 80in50 scenario are reductions in overall travel demand (unlike the other two 80in50 scenarios) and the use of electricity in vehicles (mainly via gasoline and diesel PHEVs). Smaller, efficient electric-drive vehicles, primarily in the LDV and HDV sectors, and the fact that consumers accept reduced vehicle performance in response to very high energy prices both lead to a large improvement in vehicle efficiency.

However, these scenarios only achieve the 80% reduction for in-state emissions. Overall emissions include additional aviation and marine travel that crosses the state’s boundaries.

When Overall emissions are analyzed, the 80in50 target is not met. Overall emissions include additional aviation and marine travel that crosses the state’s boundaries. When these trips are included, emissions are only reduced by 71% in Efficient Biofuels 80in50, 66% in Electric-drive 80in50, and 73% in Actor-based 80in50 (compared to 1990 Overall emissions). The discrepancy stems from the fact that low-carbon hydrogen and/or electricity see limited application in the aviation and marine subsectors.

If Overall emissions are to be reduced by 80% or more, dramatic changes are needed in the aviation and large marine subsectors. The Actor-based 80in50 scenario addresses the discrepancy better than the other scenarios—by reducing travel demand, increasing efficiency, and utilizing a larger share of available biofuels in the aviation subsector. The two technology scenarios highlight the consequences of increased travel demand in the aviation and large marine subsectors. Advances in other vehicle subsectors are largely erased by activity growth in air travel and domestic and international shipping by sea and air, unless low-carbon biofuels or hydrogen can be utilized in those subsectors on a large scale.

Resources

September 8, 2008 in Climate Change, Emissions, Policy | Permalink | Comments (12) | TrackBack (0)

Comments

California is bankrupt. It cannot even pay its employees their contracted wages. Californians have allowed themselves to be robbed by politicians and corporations and promoting expensive ecolocical programs when the State had no money.

No hydroelectric power should be sold into California from out of state. California should build cleaner coal or nuclear power plants to get all of its electricity. The hydroelectric power that is now shipped to California can be used in the states where it is generated; California does not deserve the benefit of the reduction of green house gases provided by these out of state facilities since it is imposing its views upon the other states.

California could have had a large number of electric cars, but it failed because of bribery from the fuel cell industry.

There is no more money available for expensive solar energy in California and all such programs should be stopped immediatly.

The government of California has allowed its residents to be robbed of their money with high electric bills and created an environment for ENRON and its succesors to create shortages so that extortionary prices could be charged.

All California cities should be required by law to install Nuclear power plants to supply all of the power needed by the city. It is a well kept secret that nuclear power plants do not generate more than a few cubic yards of nuclear fuel waste a year.

It is also a well kept secret from the public that there is a well researched and well tested facility in operation for safely storing nuclear fuel wastes from navy ship reactors and other government reactors for more than a million years 2000 feet deep in a large billion year old salt deposit. It is called WIPP and only Federal bureaucracy prevents it from safely storing any and all materials declared to be nuclear wastes. Of all of the few hundred tons of used nuclear fuels rods in storage at reactors, there are only a few tons of real waste; all the rest is useable fuel, economical at todays higher uranium prices.

From the beginning of life, all plants and animals have ingested and survived natural radio-active potassium and have survived more natural radio-activity from the earth and space. There are fewer pounds of radio-active atoms on earth because of nuclear reactors. Nuclear reactors do not make pounds of radio-active atoms, but they actually destroy as many as possible. But there are enough radio-active atoms naturally on the earth to supply millions of years of energy at the present rate of energy consumption. Shortly after then, fusion energy will become available upon the earth. ..HG..

Posted by: Henry Gibson | September 08, 2008 at 03:45 PM

@Henry -
Millions of years of energy? Got references to support that?

Posted by: Giant | September 08, 2008 at 07:10 PM

Henry;Calif has one of the lowest per-capita energy useages in the whole nation,much due to the stringent energy standards that were adopted when Jerry Brown was the governor. Why punish us now for the fact that further reductions,at least in terms of home and building useage,will be hard to find? How about people from Alaska,Nevada, or Florida, who presumably spend alot more energy heating and cooling to live there-are you going to punish them too, or reward the Alaskans, none of whose oil ends up being refined in the US?
I grant you that Calif has a love/hate affair with the automobile, and we drive too much.But we have been driving smaller more energy efficient Japanese cars long before they became very popular in the rest of the country. Richard

Posted by: | September 08, 2008 at 09:42 PM

I disagree with the part where it suggests to reduce, and I quote, "travel demand" to the state... if anything, travel demand should be fostered and encouraged, for it brings along visitors that contribute to the state's prosperity... other than that, I agree with most of the article... ;)

Posted by: Universidad Perú | September 08, 2008 at 10:18 PM

I assume that both in the hydrogen and the electric scenarios, the primary energy source to produce the hydrogen and the electricity is biomass?

Posted by: Jonas | September 08, 2008 at 11:07 PM

I was wondering where they were proposing to get the hydrogen too. They refer extensively to "low carbon hydrogen"

"In this analysis, feedstocks for hydrogen production considered include natural gas, coal, biomass, and water
electrolysis (with varying degrees of carbon intensity for electricity)...The lowest carbon intensities are associated with electricity and/or hydrogen production from nuclear and renewables. Production via these pathways can potentially reduce lifecycle GHG emissions to essentially zero."

Posted by: | September 09, 2008 at 03:12 AM

Its not some strange mystic mumbo jumbo.

Its the very basic fact that MORE is always better then not enough.

H2 simply means more options and more cars/trucks that will be doable under 2020 2030 and 2040 conditions.

EVEN with h2 there likely will be some rather nasty gaps in the car/truck market.. but there wil be fewer of them.

Posted by: wintermane | September 09, 2008 at 04:13 AM

I'm surprised there was no mention of increased use of advanced forms of public transpotation. By 2030 it's possible that such systems could be 5 times more efficient than 1990, and travel in excess of 200 mph thereby taking a bite out of airline travel.

John

Posted by: John Manning | September 09, 2008 at 11:22 AM

Because most of the high speed rail projects are now fubared due to the budget. We live right where one of the high speed rail lines will be going through but at this point we expect the line will take many decades to be built if it ever is.

Posted by: wintermane | September 09, 2008 at 11:49 AM

Californai is living in dreamland.

Read this article for a perspective.

http://www.city-journal.org/2008/18_2_californias_environmentalism.html

Just why do es Californai have to get 80% below 1990? Wah tsi so sacred about a990.. It was a polirtical compromise by ther phonmy greesnof Europe to allow thm a leg up ontargets becasue it allowed Europe to include the collapsing economies of teh Communist bloc to remove a lot of the CO2, si they did no thave to do so. it was a form of legal cheating.

Why does it have to be a target of 80% or 75 or 60 or 50 or 30 or even 25% or even 0% below 1990.

I do not see that 1990 was an intolerable, unsustainable, situation at all. The World'd temperatur ewa sbarel measureably higher than a century before. Some suggested that if the hea rtisland effect were properly accounted for there may have been no temperature changes at all.

These discussion remind me of the praise for the Emperor's new clothes. Many sycophants spoke of the glimmering shine of the delicate dyes, others of the fine tailoring, yada, yada,yada. It's all makes no sense. In other words it's pure nonsense.

Posted by: stas peterson | September 09, 2008 at 11:40 PM

California is living in dreamland.

Read this article for a perspective.

http://www.city-journal.org/2008/18_2_californias_environmentalism.html

Just why does California have to get 80% below 1990? What is so sacred about 1990? It was selelcted as political compromise by their phony Greens of Europe to allow them a leg up on targets. Because it allowed Europe to include the collapsing economies of the ex-Communist bloc to remove a lot of the CO2, so they did not have to do so. It was a form of legal cheating by Europe.

Why does it have to be a target of 80% or 75 or 60 or 50 or 30 or even 25% or even 0% below 1990?

I do not see that 1990 was an intolerable, unsustainable, situation at all. The World's temperature was barely measureably higher than a century before. Some suggested that if the heat island effect were properly accounted for there, may have been no real temperature changes at all. As it is, the debate is whether 0.6 Centigrade rise in a century, is of any significance at all anyway.

These discussion remind me of the praise for the Emperor's new clothes. Many sycophants spoke of the glimmering shine of the delicate dyes, others of the fine tailoring, yada, yada,yada. It's all makes no sense. In other words it's pure nonsense.

Posted by: stas peterson | September 09, 2008 at 11:47 PM

It can be done with big investments in nuclear, geothermal, wind, and Solar. (Wind and Solar are on the list because a useful amount of them could be built quickly, not because they are complete solutions.) Cars would be PHEVs. Vehicle fuels would be artificial gasoline and kerosene, manufactured from water and atmospheric CO2, retailing at about $5 per gallon before taxes. Retail electricity would be about $0.20 per kiloWatt-hour. Breeder reactors and reprocessing would be used both to extend the supplies of uranium (and later, thorium) and to essentially eliminate high-level waste requiring long-term storage. A fringe benefit of nuclear is that it can reduce the cost of desalinated drinking water.

We can do this. Eventually we must do this (whatever you think of global warming, the world will run out of all fossil fuels in this century unless the world population or economy collapse permanently). We just have to pay for it. The sooner we start the less painful the transition will be.

Posted by: richard schumacher | September 10, 2008 at 07:29 AM

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