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Total Lithium-Ion Battery Sales Forecast To Double By 2012 to US$13.1B

28 November 2008

Nikkei. Market researcher Fuji-Keizai Co. forecasts that global sales of rechargeable batteries for all applications will surge 43% from 2007 to ¥3.61 trillion (US$37.9 billion) in 2012, led by a doubling of lithium-ion battery sales.

Sales of lithium ion batteries are seen growing to ¥1.25 trillion [US$13.1 billion] in 2012, about 2.1 times as high as 2007 sales. In addition to use in inexpensive notebook personal computers and power tools, these batteries are expected to be utilized in electric cars and hybrid vehicles.

Sales of dry cells and other non-rechargeable batteries are expected to grow 22% from 2007 to 1.48 trillion yen in 2012. The percentage of alkaline dry cell batteries sold will likely increase from around 70% in 2007.

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If most of the increase in Lithium-Ion sales value is for cars, that would be about $600m or 1m kWh @ $600 / kWh.
1m kWh would provide battery packs for about:
500,000 2kWh HEVs or
100,000 10kWh PHEVs or
80,000 12.5kWh Sparrow type single seater trikes or
38,000 26kWh Th!nk size BEV city cars.


The $600 million in Li-ion sales for EV applicatins seems a bit light. I wonder if the projection included e-bicycles as an application.

A million kWh would equate to 2,000,000 1/2kWh e-bicycles, of the 30 million e-bicycles that will be manufactured in China in 2010 and the 50 million or so in 2012. These numbers are based on a UC-Davis study cited in a May 2008 Green Car Congress article:

“Growth forecasts for the E2W (electric two-wheeler) industry are optimistic, with projected sales of 18.1, 22.7, and 30.1 million units in 2007, 2008, and 2010, respectively. “

The numbers can also be used to estimate the average price of a kWh of lithium batteries. In 2008 the global sales of lithium batteries is about 7 billion USD. The world is expected to sell about 1250 million cell phones in 2008 with an average 3Wh lithium battery or 3.75 million kWh. The world will also sell about 150 million notebooks in 2008 that each uses 45 Wh of lithium battery or 6.75 million kWh. All other applications for lithium batteries are probably close to 3 million kWh. This is a total of 13.5 million kWh or 518 USD per kWh.

Still a global production of 13.5 million kWh in 2008 is almost enough to produce 0.5 million Thinks per year or over a million Volts. Not bad at all. We still need to get that price level down because 518 USD per kWh is making EVs too expensive to get any important demand apart from high end vehicles like Tesla and Carma. For instance, I doubt the Think will sell well at the current price/quality tradeoff although I hope I am wrong.

An extended (for another 2 to 3 years) economic downturn may curtail lithium batteries production expansion to this low level.

However, an early economic growth resumption (by early or mid 2010) + higher oil price could make this forcast look very small for 2011 and 2012.

Governments' mandates with regards to CO2 emission per Km may also put additional pressure and accellerate the transistion to PHEVs and BEVs after 2010.

Rapid expansion of cell phone sales in emerging markets yielded a 13.8% increase in the first quarter of 2008 over year earlier. Continued expansion of portable devices (MP*3, notebooks, cell phones) could push worldwide sales increase to 20% annually. Consumer electronics resists economic slowdowns indicating the short-lived extent of contraction.

If the expansion were to equate to a 10% reduction in cost/kWh annually - we would be at around $360/kWh by 2011. After that the large format EV/PHEV batteries should drive price downward faster. Unfortunately a floor will be established that is artificial to real costs. This will be the effect of the new undeclared energy cartel of Li-Ion battery makers.

This money should be partially diverted to the more robust sodium-nickel, ZEBRA, batteries that have been available with capacities at least equal to lithium for more than ten years. The batteries in Priuses should be replaced with graphite fiber flywheels for higher power, and even lead-acid batteries will give them twenty mile range. Which is all they need, but people who wish to spend money for automotive art should put ZEBRA batteries in their Priuses for long electric range. The batteries have such a long life that many working cells can be given to their heirs. MES-DEA may eventuall be clever enough to build a case that will allow failed cells to be replaced especially for stationary service in homes. Except for price they are the ideal solar cell battery. If you tried the safety drop tests that have been performed on ZEBRA batteries on Lithium batteries the manufacturer would not sell you another. The gasoline long fire test is far to dangerous to even be considered. ..HG..

Can anyone educate me on the current state and future state of batteries needed for plug in cars? If there are any good websites and companies manufacturing them as well as start-ups working on the next gen would be great.
I noted that today's Wall Street discusses about a formation of a US based consortuim with help from federal funds to get US back into the race on providing next gen batteries. I have noted that Honda is still focused on Ferrous Oxide(?) batteries and even BYD seems to be leaning towards FeOx instead of Litium Oin batteries. Any comments?
what is the current state of stats for batteries meant for plug-in cars? Power output, amps, KWH, peak charge and draw, etc? Dimensions and costs? Key issues that need to be tackled and what does future state look like?
BYD claims their 3.0 litre equivalent car that is being tested right now can run 62 miles on 12KWH. That seems really high. It means about 5 miles a KWH or 3143Btu of energy. In other words, it takes only 629Btu/mile.
Compare this to an avg 20 miles per gallon on a similar size gasoline based car. I gallon has 138,000btu. So a gasoline driven car needs 6,900btu/mile. the electric car gets 5 times more miles for the same energy input. Is that realistic? Any validated data to back this up or what is reality?
Anyone working on nano technology to increase the surface area of conducting surfaces to reduce the size, weight and cost of the batteries?
Look like some estimates say $600/KWH. so a 12KWH battery capacity on full charge will cost 7,200$ to power a BYD like car for 62 miles(100KM) (if their claim is realistic) Any crosschecks with Volt or Tesla or Nissan/Puegot plug-in cars?

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