EU to Exceed Criteria Air Pollutant Limit Partly Due to Growth in Road Transport

1 December 2008

Sum of EU Member State aggregated projections compared with EU-27 emission ceilings defined in Annex I and Annex II of the NECD. Source: EEA Click to enlarge.

Despite significant emission reductions in recent years, only 11 EU Member States expect to remain within their emission limits for all four air pollutants set by the EU National Emission Ceilings Directive (NEC Directive), according to a report by the European Environment Agency (EEA). The limit on NO_x remains the most difficult to meet. This is partly due to the fact that demand for road transport has grown faster than anticipated.

The NEC Directive status report by the EEA presents country-specific and EU-wide information for the four pollutants covered by the directive: sulphur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) and ammonia (NH₃). Preliminary results were reported in May this year.

Overview of “with measures” projections. “√”indicates that a Member State anticipates meeting or surpassing its respective emission ceiling on the basis of currently implemented and adopted policies and measures; “x” indicates that a ceiling will not be met without implementing additional measures to reduce emissions. Source: EEA Click to enlarge.

Even taking into account NO_x control measures already in place within the Member States, the NO_x emissions for the EU-27 as a whole are still projected to be 9% above the aggregated Member State limits (known as the Annex I ceiling) and 20% above the stricter ceiling for the European Community as a whole (the Annex II ceiling) set for 2010. Some Member States including the Netherlands, Sweden and Germany expect to emit only slightly more NO_x than their ceilings. Others, such as Ireland, Austria and Spain, are projected to miss substantially their targets by as much as up to 50%.

This is partly due to higher-than-expected growth in road transport that has occurred since the ceilings were set. Moreover, the estimated gains from policy measures, which were in discussion at the time, have proven less effective than originally anticipated (e.g. the effectiveness of certain vehicle emission controls).

Comparison by country of NOx 2010 projections and ceilings. Source: EEA Click to enlarge.

Such factors have led several Member States to change their projections in the last few years and announce that they now expect to miss their NO_x targets. However, Belgium and Germany have reported plans to implement additional measures which may allow them to comply with their 2010 emissions ceilings for NO_x. The other Member States which are not on track will also need to develop and present such plans.

For the other three pollutants (SO₂, NMVOCs, NH₃), most EU Member States are expected to reduce their emissions beyond their commitments. As a result, the EU as a whole is expected to register substantial reductions. In the case of NMVOCs, EU-27 emissions are projected to be 9% below the Annex I ceiling, but 6% above the stricter Annex II ceiling.

The SO₂ projections fare even better, being 31% below Annex I and 27% below Annex II ceilings. With 19 EU Member States already below their ceilings, the EU-27’s NH₃ emissions are also projected to overachieve, being 7% below the aggregate ceiling.

The NEC Directive sets pollutant-specific and legally-binding emission ceilings for each Member State to meet by 2010. It requires the countries to report annually information concerning emissions and projections for the four air pollutants: SO₂, NO_x, NMVOC and NH₃. These pollutants are deposited in soils and waters and damage ecosystems by acidification and eutrophication. They also contribute to the formation of ozone and particulate matter, which are harmful to human health as well as to ecosystems and vegetation.

The current EEA report is based on the 2007 reporting cycle, where Member States provided final emissions data for 2005 and preliminary data for 2006, as well as projected emissions for 2010. By the end of this year, they are required to submit updated 2010 estimates, together with final 2006 and preliminary 2007 data. Data in this report is also available through the NECD emissions dataviewer.

Annex I of the NEC Directive defines both country-based ceilings and aggregated emission ceilings for the EU-27 (which are the sums of the individual Member State ceilings in that Annex). Annex II also defines SO₂, NO_x and NMVOC ceilings for the EU-27 as a whole. These ceilings are stricter than those in Annex I and are designed with the aim of attaining by 2010 the interim environmental objectives set out in the directive (i.e. reduction of acidification, health- and vegetation-related ground-level ozone exposure by 2010 compared with the 1990 situation).

Resources

• NEC Directive status report 2007

• National Emission Ceilings

• Air pollutant emissions data viewer