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NASA Study Links Severe Storm Increases and Global Warming

31 December 2008

The frequency of extremely high clouds in Earth’s tropics—the type associated with severe storms and rainfall—is increasing as a result of global warming, according to a study by scientists at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

Nasajpl
Extremely high clouds, known as deep convective clouds, are typically associated with severe storms and rainfall. In this AIRS image of Hurricane Katrina, taken 28 August 2005, the day before Katrina made landfall in Louisiana, the eye of the storm was surrounded by a super cluster of 528 deep convective clouds (depicted in dark blue). The temperatures of the tops of such clouds are colder than 210 degrees Kelvin (-82 °F, -63 °C). Image credit: NASA/JPL Click to enlarge.

In a presentation at fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco, JPL Senior Research Scientist Hartmut Aumann outlined the results of a study based on five years of data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument on NASA’s Aqua spacecraft. The AIRS data were used to observe certain types of tropical clouds linked with severe storms, torrential rain and hail. The instrument typically detects about 6,000 of these clouds each day. Aumann and his team found a strong correlation between the frequency of these clouds and seasonal variations in the average sea surface temperature of the tropical oceans.

For every degree Centigrade (1.8 °F) increase in average ocean surface temperature, the team observed a 45% increase in the frequency of the very high clouds. At the present rate of global warming of 0.13 degrees Celsius (0.23 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade, the team inferred the frequency of these storms can be expected to increase by six percent per decade.

Climate modelers have long speculated that the frequency and intensity of severe storms may or may not increase with global warming. Aumann said results of the study will help improve their models.

Clouds and rain have been the weakest link in climate prediction. The interaction between the daytime warming of the sea surface under clear-sky conditions and increases in the formation of low clouds, high clouds and, ultimately, rain is very complicated. The high clouds in our observations—typically at altitudes of 20 kilometers (12 miles) and higher—present the greatest difficulties for current climate models, which aren’t able to resolve cloud structures smaller than about 250 kilometers (155 miles) in size.

—Hartmut Aumann

Aumann said the results of his study, published recently in Geophysical Research Letters, are consistent with another NASA-funded study by Frank Wentz and colleagues in 2005. That study found an increase in the global rain rate of 1.5 percent per decade over 18 years, a value that is about five times higher than the value estimated by climate models that were used in the 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Resources

  • Aumann, H. H., A. Ruzmaikin, and J. Teixeira (2008), Frequency of severe storms and global warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L19805, doi: 10.1029/2008GL034562

December 31, 2008 in Brief | Permalink | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)

Comments

The positive indicator for progress here is the welcome idea that Anthropogenic global warming is nowhere to be found in this summary. Bravo.

Posted by: Reel$$ | December 31, 2008 at 08:09 AM

Just because NASA don't specifically describe this as an Agw issue is not evidence of its disappearance as an issue.
The acceptance or recognition of Agw isn't evidence that sunspots or barycenter, PDO, elnino are no longer a factor.

That would be very simplistic one dimensional and generally people aren't.

The people I recognise as taking the environment seriously don't just read Vouge magazine or House and Garden.

They understand that the biosphere is a complex interconnected system in a context and physical setting where certain aspects are not within the inhabitants sphere of influence.

AGW has different meaning to different people.Fossil fuels are seen as a strong influence on the climate through the ability of CO2 to increase the amount of radiation absorbed by the Earth.

There are other warming influences in which mankind is functionary.
Deforestation for example.

It is observed that while deforestation may on first sight be seen to decrease albedo and so increase temp, in fact the energy falling on the dark leaves of a forest drives various hydrological cycles that absorb energy and convert atmospheric carbon to to lignin and cellulose. These reactions require energy and utilise CO2. So trees remove net energy from the climate system in various ways. It is also possible to increase to near extended time frames this energy and greenhouse gas seqestration.

Natural systems ( coal oil gas or fossil fuels) are an example of the removal and long term storage of these heating elements.

When people interfere by removing vegetation or mining fossil fuels and releasing large amounts of greenhouse gases, we cause AGW.
However this occurs, from poor land or water management or unbalancing the atmosphere on extended time frames, we need to recognise when the predominant reason for interruption is anthropological.

When we understand the geological influences both man made and not, and how these changes influence the climate and the amenity it provides to us all, (aware or not) It is quite natural to be interested and desire to be more informed.

NASA may have the ability to put man on the moon and indeed measure and study earth systems, but to not mention AGW in the context of the current climate change is not proof of it's non existence.

I only use the psyops pablum angle as an example of ho not to communicate in response to the examples of the same in that post.Much prefer the reasoned informative approach (in words of few syllables if necessary).

I found these statements interesting.

:Climate modelers have long speculated that the frequency and intensity of severe storms may or may not increase with global warming.

:The frequency of extremely high clouds in Earth’s tropics—the type associated with severe storms and rainfall—is increasing as a result of global warming, according to a study by scientists at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

I didn't find anywhere a reference to support that
"Anthropogenic global warming is nowhere to be found"

And seasons greetings to all.


Posted by: arnold | December 31, 2008 at 04:56 PM

Thanks for a good read, arnold. What a mess of data! Particular gibberish: "The interaction between the daytime warming of the sea surface under clear-sky conditions and increases in the formation of low clouds, high clouds and, ultimately, rain is very complicated." Your prosaic image of the process of carbon sequestration over aeons by plants was moving. Best wishes for the coming revolution (about the sun). J-R

Posted by: John Longyear | December 31, 2008 at 07:23 PM

IF the AGWs will not accept their extraordinary stumble on CO2 - they could try a new tack with human activity potentially affecting climate. Like deforestation. Not as dramatic as 20 meter sea level rise "in the near future" - but hey, maybe we've learned a lesson from Al...

Screen your front man with a hypocrisy test.

Posted by: Reel$$ | January 02, 2009 at 09:34 AM

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