New US EIA Energy Outlook Projects Flat Oil Consumption to 2030, Slower Growth in Energy Use and CO2 Emissions, and Reduced Import Dependence; 2% PHEV New Sales Share by 2030
|The AEO2009 reference case projects no increase in petroleum-based liquid fuels consumption, as biofuel use grows. Click to enlarge.|
The Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO2009) reference case released today by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects virtually no growth in US oil consumption through 2030, reflecting the combined effect of recently enacted CAFE standards, requirements for increased use of renewable fuels, and an assumed rebound in oil prices as the world economy recovers.
With overall liquid fuel demand in the AEO2009 reference case growing by 1 million barrels per day between 2007 and 2030, increased use of domestically-produced biofuels, and rising domestic oil production spurred by higher prices, the net import share of total liquids supplied, including biofuels, declines from 58% in 2007 to less than 40% in 2025 before increasing to 41% in 2030.
Vehicle fleet and use. AEO2009 projects a sharp increase in the sale of unconventional vehicle technologies, such as flex-fuel, hybrid, and diesel vehicles, as well as a significant decline in the new light-truck share of total light-duty vehicle sales.
In the reference case, hybrid vehicle sales (all varieties) increase from 2% of new light-duty vehicle sales in 2007 to 38% in 2030 (sales are tracking at around 2.4% for 2008), with full and mild hybrid systems accounting for most of that. Sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) grow to 90,000 vehicles annually by 2014, supported by recently enacted tax credits. By 2030, PHEVs account for 2% of new light vehicle sales.
|Full and mild hybrid systems dominate new vehicle sales by 2030. Click to enlarge.||The mix of light-duty vehicle sales shifts away from trucks back to cars. Click to enlarge.|
AEO2009 assumes an ongoing increase in light-duty vehicle (vehicle weight < 8,500 lbs) miles traveled (VMT), with an increase from a projected 2,669 billion VMT this year to 3,807 billion VMT in 2030—an increase of 42.6%.
Assumed tested (EPA rated) average efficiency of new light-duty cars increases from 30.4 mpg US (7.7 L/100km) in 2008 to 41.4 mpg US (5.7 L/100km) in 2030 (+36%); tested efficiency for light trucks increases from 23.1 mpg US (10.2 L/100km) to 32.9 mpg US (7.1 L/100km) in 2030 (+43%).
|AEO2009 LDV fuel economy projections. Click to enlarge.|
Assumed on-road efficiency (tested new vehicle efficiency revised for on-road performance) of new cars in the report increases from 24.8 mpg US (9.5 L/100km) in 2008 to 34.7 mpg US (6.8 L/100km) in 2030 (+40%); on-road efficiency for light trucks increases from 19.4 mpg US (12.1 L/100km) in 2008 to 27.7 mpg US (8.5 L/100km) in 2030 (+43%).
AEO2009 projects that in 2030, the light-duty fleet will consume 16.41 quadrillion Btu of energy (9.31 million barrels per day oil equivalent), an increase of 2% from 2008’s 16.04 quadrillion Btu.
Biofuels. AEO2009 projects that biofuels will fall short of the 36 billion gallon RFS target for 2022—mainly due to the lack of cellulosic ethanol production—but will exceed the 36 billion gallon target by 2030.
The report sees ethanol use for gasoline blending growing to 12.2 billion gallons and E85 consumption to 17.3 billion gallons in 2030. The ethanol supply from cellulosic feedstocks reaches 12.6 billion gallons (including both domestic and imported production) in 2030. Biodiesel and biomass-to-liquid diesel fuel use both rise significantly, reaching nearly 2 billion gallons and 5 billion gallons, respectively, in 2030.
Other highlights. Other highlights of the AEO2009 reference case projections include:
Efficiency policies and higher energy prices in AEO2009 slow the rise in US energy use, which is projected to grow from 101.9 quadrillion Btu in 2007 to 113.3 quadrillion Btu in 2030. Combined with the increased use of renewables and a reduction in projected additions of new coal-fired conventional power plants, this slows the growth in energy-related GHG emissions.
Energy-related CO2 emissions grow at 0.3% per year from 2007 to 2030 in the AEO2009 reference case, reaching a level of 6,410 million metric tons in 2030, as compared with 6,851 million metric tons in the AEO2008 reference case.
The assumption of a higher world oil price path in the AEO2009 reference case reflects tighter constraints on access to low cost oil supplies in a setting where the forces driving growth in long-term demand in non-OECD countries remains as strong as previously expected. In 2007 dollars, the world crude oil price, averaging near $60 in 2009, rises as the global economy rebounds and global demand once again grows more rapidly than non-OPEC liquids supply. In 2030, the average real price of crude oil is $130 per barrel in 2007 dollars ($189 per barrel in nominal dollars).
Coal, oil, and natural gas meet 79% of total US primary energy supply requirements in 2030, down from an 85% share in 2007.
Total consumption of marketed renewable fuels—including wood, municipal waste, and biomass in the end use sectors; hydroelectricity, geothermal, municipal waste, biomass, solar, and wind for electric power generation; ethanol for gasoline blending; and biomass-based diesel—grows by 3.3% per year.
Total domestic production of natural gas reaches 23.7 trillion cubic feet by 2030. While exploration and production costs rise over time, higher natural gas prices support the projected level of production. Onshore production of unconventional natural gas, including shale gas, increases from 9.2 trillion cubic feet in 2007 to 13.2 trillion cubic feet in 2030.
Total electricity consumption, including both purchases from electric power producers and on-site generation, grows from 3,903 billion kWh in 2007 to 4,902 billion kWh in 2030. New natural gas and renewable plants account for the majority of generating capacity additions. The natural gas share of electricity generation remains between 19% and 22% through 2030. Coal’s generation share declines from 49% to 45% between 2007 and 2025, then rebounds slightly to 47% in 2030 as a small number of new coal plants are added.
The full AEO2009 report, including projections with differing assumptions on the price of oil, the rate of economic growth, and the characteristics of new technologies, will be released in early 2009, along with regional projections.