We need higher gas prices. I paid $1.45 today. Hybrids will die out for another 10 years if the price stays here. Obama just said he won't tax gas, and I want my vote back. The Europeans have paidover $4 gal for two decades and it has providedfar superior auto technology, far superior roads, far superior public transportation, and a much smaller carbon footprint.

Creativforce:

I dont think we will have to wait 10 years for higher gas prices. I was thinking more like 2.

But...

We have got to take some players out of the Auto game. The 10-11 million projected '09 unit sales are spread too thinly over so many Auto Manufacturers, now that the Koreans gobbling up share, too.

Hybrids will be around. Just maybe not with some variant of GM branding on the grille.

I sure hope this "car czar" really puts the hammer down at GM and Chrysler. Put those nimrods out of their misery, really. Bye-Bye Wagoner, Bye-Bye Nardelli. Hello someone fresh entering with Axe in-hand.

Could we get rid of Bob Lutz too? He is still shouting the "we're (GM) giving people the cars they want to buy" nonsense too. He just did it again today...you cannot teach an OLD dog new tricks.

Nate H.
Dover, Ohio

Creativforce said: We need higher gas prices.

If oil goes back up to $140/ barrel I intend to heat with coal so that every green radical will breath more heavy metals, sulfur, not to mention carbon dioxide.

On pure economics, you hit the problem of diminishing returns as auto fuel economy gets up above about 35MPG. Most people are not going to spend $4000-8000 extra for a hybrid if it only saves them $250/year in gasoline, no matter that they're getting 50MPG instead of 35MPG. The extra up-front cost makes it a bad deal. Altruists bent on reducing their carbon footprint and emissions are in the minority.

There is much larger financial (and CO2) benefit in replacing a 20MPG car with one that gets 35MPH.

Besides driving less and driving efficiently, changing a large percentage of the fleet over to smaller and/or lighter, more efficient cars will make much more of a difference than selling a small percentage of whizbang hybrids. We should go for wide-scale adoption of lower-cost improvements such as idle-stop, direct injection, etc.

Yep. Wodner when Nancy's going to appoint a "Financial Debacle Czar?" The paltry $18B they wasting all the time about pales next to the REAL CATASTROPHE - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac total cash BAILOUT of 700 that's seven hundred billion:

$$700,000,000,000.00

Thanks to a stupefying inept Congress and all the sim designers behind them! Grow f*ing up people!!

Initial high cost + competitive fuel use.

Why would anyone want to replace a 45-50 MPG TDI VW Jetta with a 50 MPG XXXXXX Hybrid? Total 10 year 400,000 mile cost of ownership has got to be the consideration. VW TDI owners are Fanatics about their cars.. they don't seem to trade out all that often. MBZ Diesels are not the only ones that with proper oil service will go to 400K miles.

I will vote with nmy $$ for the clean diesel using petro or synfuel diesel.
Rikiki

Problem is that people don't go from 20mpg vehicles to 35mpg vehicles (of course there are rare exceptions) while it is easier for someone to go from a 35mpg car to a 50mpg car.

Take the average mid-size SUV or large vehicle driver and try to shove them in a subcompact. (20mpg to 35mpg)
-vs-
Take someone in a subcompact and shove them in a hybrid subcompact...no problem! (35mpg to 50mpg).

People are more likely to go from 20mpg vehicles to 22-25mpg vehicles.

At $2/gal gas, going from 20mpg to 25mpg saves about $250/year. Going from 35mpg to 50mpg saves slightly less. It is much more cost-effective to improve efficiency at the low mileage end, and returns on investment (just considering direct vehicle owner economic benefits) diminish rapidly at the high mileage end, where marginal improvements are increasingly expensive.

And yes, many people can go from 20mpg (or less) to 35mpg, just by trading an unneeded SUV for a reasonable car for daily use. Many of my neighbors drive empty trucks around every day, trucks which may pull a boat 3-4 times a year. They are getting mileage in the teens when they drive to the local Safeway or downtown to work and back.

Rikiki do not forget you can run biodiesel in a TDI VW Jetta.

Car and Driver did a story for the 10 year anniversary of their green car issue. As it turned out the previous 10 years was the decade of the SUV. They did a road trip using professional drivers aiming for good mileage. The Pious was the one car to do much worse than predicted and TDI VW Jetta did much better than EPA figures.

Nick,

I was not saying someone in a 20mpg vehicle cannot purchase a more reasonable fuel sipper, but rather they would likely CHOOSE to stay with a similar class vehicle that gets slightly better mileage.

Going from 20 to 25mpg by changing vehicle classes is the obvious and cost effective way most will use (with the exception who use their larger vehicles for work or those who are wealthy enough that their fuel costs have no impact on their personal wealth). Now getting a large vehicle with 20mpg average fuel economy to 25mpg average fuel economy is not nearly as cost effective and straight forward - costs will probably be the same as getting a 35mpg subcompact to 50mpg (i.e. pop a diesel engine in either one or hybridize either one - the percentage increase in cost is likely to be close with both classes of vehicle).

I would say the "average" consumer wants to have the same exact vehicle but with much better fuel economy and only those I personally consider to be "reasoning" individuals will step down a vehicle size class to achieve those fuel economy gains (when they don't need the larger size vehicle for their profession, or the smaller vehicle is able to fill the same role).

Many years ago as I put myself through college I was loading TVs into people's vehicles and more often than not those who had a SUV ended up requiring delivery services after they attempted to load a large TV into their vehicle...and anything that did fit in a SUV would also fit in station wagons or hatchbacks (had one instance of a corolla wagon/hatchback that fit a 36" tube tv that I couldn't fit in a mid-size SUV!)

"Many years ago as I put myself through college..."

Meaning I'm better than those who either did not do the same or whose parents worked to put them through college. The subliminal intent is to claim a work ethic that is better than yours.

Nope, the subliminal intent was to declare that I no longer load TVs for a living and now have a much "better" job. Thanks, but try again later!

It would be difficult to try to present any notion of one's work ethic while posting from a US based IP during the "middle" of the work day regardless of whether I do my posting & reading during a break or not.

Sounds a good time to buy a 2nd hand prius and convert to plug-in.

Some afluent hero has to be an early adopter for Li battery technology. Take a hit now so the paupers and tight wads can buy cheap later.

No credit, no car sale.

I like the hybrid experience, in particular, the 09 escape hybrid. It is a fair (read cheap looking) SUV with a wonderful driving experience. I'll go as far as calling it fun.

However, I drive an 06 Jetta TDI that gets an overall 42MPG. It does outperform the Prius in the driving experience catagory. The Jetta actually corners well, feels sporty and is a pleasure to drive fast. It is also a bunch quieter with regard to road noise/harshness. I simply find the Jetta too small for family road trips. Really, it's too small for wife, dog and I for any length trip.

So, for all of you that want high gas prices that force Americans into small cars, please think again! We are not Europe, we have vast distances to travel and many of us have large families. I don't want to drive 2 cars each time I take a family trip, like they do in Europe.

My next car will likely be a Ford Escape hybrid or something with more room, regardless of fuel costs.

Per the Wall Street Journal (Dec 3, 2008), "big vehicles" (pickups, big cars, and big SUVs only) out sold small cars in November ’08 and also year-to-date (Nov.).
Vehicle class --------- Nov ’08 --------- YTD
Small Cars ------------ 121,939 --------- 2,263,329
BIG Vehicles --------- 243,939 --------- 3,492,767
To call big vehicles dinosaurs may be wishful thinking.
If a "Car Czar" forces Detroit to build cars "people want", we'll see some real bailing out.
Many people don't want to drive a Corolla sized car, but apparently not too many want to drive a Prius either (“year-to-date, [all] hybrids hold a 2.4% share of new vehicle sales”)

Much ado about nothing,at model change.

I see that GM and Ford are now outselling ALL the hybrid models offered by Honda, Nissan and Toyota COMBINED...except for the Prius and about half of Camry hybrid sales.

With the upcoming Fusion, Detroit will take another big step, even as the new Prius emerges to revitalize its sales.

It is easy to predict that Detroit will outsell all the hybrids by Honda, Nissan and Toyota COMBINED except for Prius, by the end of 2009.
And then comes the VOLT in 2010.

What will Greenies do then, to profess their insufferable moral supremacy, when common, plebeian Fords and Chevys outnumber hybrids from other foreign manufacturers?

Wonder if the number of bicycles sold has gone up proportionately during November?

Now is a good time to buy a conventional car. You'd be amazed at the dealer mark downs that are out there.

It is easy to predict that Detroit will outsell all the hybrids by Honda, Nissan and Toyota COMBINED except for Prius, by the end of 2009.

What will Greenies do then...?