Requiring Lower Sulfur Marine Fuels Could Reduce Emissions-Related Deaths by Up to 50% Annually By 2012

9 July 2009

Annual premature mortality for the No Control scenario compared to a “no shipping” case. Credit: ACS. Click to enlarge.

Requiring ships to use marine fuel with 0.1% Sulfur (1,000 ppm) content within 200 nautical miles of coastal areas could reduce annual premature deaths resulting from emissions-related affects by around 43,500 by 2012—approximately 50% of the 87,000 deaths estimated to occur in a no control scenario (assuming 2.7% or 27,000 ppm S)—according to a new study by researchers from the US and Germany, led by Dr. James Winebrake at the Rochester Institute of Technology.

The study is published in the current issue of the ACS journal Environmental Science & Technology.

Annual avoided premature mortality for the three control scenarios: (a) Coastal 0.5, (b) Coastal 0.1, and (c) Global 0.5. Credit: ACS. Click to enlarge.

To quantify changes in premature mortality due to ship emissions, the team compared a 2012 No Control scenario with three emissions control scenarios:

• 0.5% S (5,000 ppm) within 200 nautical miles of coastal areas
• 0.1% S (1,000 ppm) within 200 nautical miles of coastal areas
• A global limit of 0.5% S

They applied the global climate model ECHAM5/MESSy1-MADE to geospatial emissions inventories to determine worldwide concentrations of particular matter (PM_2.5) from oceangoing vessels. Using those PM_2.5 concentrations in cardiopulmonary and lung cancer concentration-risk functions and population models, they estimated annual premature mortality.

Without control, the central estimate is approximately 87,000 premature deaths annually in 2012. Coastal area control scenarios reduce premature deaths by ~33,500 for the 0.5% case and ~43,500 for the 0.1% case. Where fuel sulfur content is reduced globally to 0.5% S, premature deaths are reduced by ~41,200.

In a 2007 study, Winebrake and James Corbett from the University of Delaware (who is a co-author of the current study) concluded that pollution from marine shipping causes approximately 60,000 premature cardiopulmonary and lung cancer deaths around the world each year. (Earlier post.) In that paper, they estimated that the annual mortalities from ship emissions could increase by 40% by 2012 (about 84,000 deaths).

Particulate matter from ship emissions is related to the sulfur content of marine fuel. For ocean-going vessels (OGV), fuel sulfur content averages around 2.7% with upper limits as high as 4.5% S (45,000 ppm).

These results confirm that meaningful benefits are achieved from either a 0.5% S or 0.1% S control strategy. Our findings demonstrate that upward of 45,000 premature mortalities could be prevented annually across the globe with a movement toward lower sulfur fuels in the future. Of course, reduced premature mortality is directly, but nonlinearly, related to the geographic use of clean fuels: lower sulfur fuels lead to larger health benefits, particularly when used in a near-coastal environment.

The premature mortality impacts demonstrated in this paper are only two of many impacts that are related to shipping emissions and fuel quality. Climate change, acidification, visibility, eutrophication, and other environmental effects are closely related to the type of fuel used in ships.

—Winebrake et al. 2009

Regulations. The International Maritime Organization (IMO), under ANNEX VI of MARPOL 73/78 (the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships), is adopting controls on sulfur in marine fuels.

• The global fuel sulfur cap will be reduced to 3.5% S (35,000 ppm) in 2012 and 0.5% S (5,000 ppm) as early as 2020.
• In sulfur emission control areas (SECA), sulfur content of no more than 1% S (10,000 ppm) by 2010 and 0.1% S (1,000 ppm) by 2015 will be required within 200 nautical miles (nm) of coastal areas.

Last week, the US Environmental Protection Agency announced a proposed rulemaking that, in addition to instituting stricter NO_x controls on Category 3 marine engine, would forbid the production and sale of marine fuel oil above 1,000 ppm sulfur for use in the waters within a US Emissions Control Area (ECA) and internal US waters, and allow for the production and sale of 1,000 ppm sulfur fuel for use in Category 3 marine vessels. (Earlier post.)

The proposed rulemaking follows on a proposal last March by the United States and Canada to designate thousands of miles of the two countries’ coasts as an Emission Control Area (ECA). (Earlier post.) The International Maritime Organization (IMO), a United Nations agency, begins consideration of the ECA plan this month, which would result in more stringent standards for large ships operating within 200 nautical miles of the coasts of Canada and the United States.

California has implemented a new regulation requiring that all ocean-going vessels within 24 nautical miles of the state’s coastline use cleaner burning diesel fuel. The regulation is being implemented in two steps. In 2009, MGO (marine gasoil) must have a sulfur limit of 1.5% (15,000 ppm), while MDO (marine diesel oil) would have a limit of 0.5% (5,000 ppm). In 2012, the limits for both fuels drops to 0.1% (1,000 ppm). (Earlier post.)

Resources

• J. J. Winebrake, J. J. Corbett, E. H. Green, A. Lauer and V. Eyring (2009) Mitigating the Health Impacts of Pollution from Oceangoing Shipping: An Assessment of Low-Sulfur Fuel Mandates. Environ. Sci. Technol., 43 (13), pp 4776–4782 doi: 10.1021/es803224q