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Reducing GHG Emissions with Land Use, Transit, and Auto Pricing Policies
17 October 2009
| Box plots of combined policy VMT reductions by time horizon. Source: Rodier 2009. Click to enlarge. |
California’s global warming legislation requires reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 and 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. The California Air Resources Board estimates that significant GHG reductions from passenger vehicles can be achieved through improvements in vehicle technology and the low carbon fuel standard; however, these reductions will not be enough to achieve 1990 levels if current trends in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) continue.
A study by Dr. Caroline Rodier at UC Davis’s Institute of Transportation Studies reviewed international modeling literature on land use, transit, and auto pricing policies to suggest a range of VMT and GHG reduction that regions might achieve if such policies were implemented.
The results of her report provide some order-of-magnitude estimates for policies that appear to have some promise of near term implementation. Over a 10-year time horizon:
Employee parking pricing may result in approximately a 1% reduction in VMT.
Pay-as-you-drive insurance policy may produce reductions ranging from 4% to 5% reduction.
Moderate cordon pricing schemes are likely to reduce VMT by 2% to 3% over time.
Increased transit investment may reduce VMT by 0.1% to 1% during a 10-year time horizon, and in future 10-year increments, this may increase by 1 percentage point at the higher reduction level.
Land-use-only scenarios may reduce VMT by up to 2% in the 10-year time horizon, which may increase by approximately 2 to 3 percentage points at the higher reduction level at 10 year increments
Land use and transit scenarios may reduce VMT by 2% to 6% during a 10-year time horizon, and these figures may increase by approximately 2 to 5 percentage points at each future 10-year increment.
Combined land use, transit, and pricing policy measures would bring significantly greater reductions both in the shorter and longer term time horizons.
In general, Rodier notes, the results confirm that even improved calibrated travel models are likely to underestimate VMT reductions from land use, transit, and pricing policies. These models are not suited for the policy analysis demands in the era of global climate change, she concludes.
Resources
Rodier, Caroline J. (2009) A Review of the International Modeling Literature: Transit, Land Use and Auto Pricing Strategies to Reduce Vehicle Miles Traveled and Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, Research Report UCD-ITS-RR-09-39
October 17, 2009 in Climate Change, Emissions, Policy | Permalink | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Comments
Posted by: The Goracle | October 17, 2009 at 07:17 AM
http://www.rfid-ready.com/20090221824/transportation/enigma-launches-new-rfid-tagging-systems-for-drivers-and-passengers.html
With the advent of new vehicle tracking technology, California will be able to monitor all vehicle traffic and demand VMT taxes for those who drive too much. Suggestions that a VMT cap of 7500 miles seem reasonable. If you want to drive more than that you will have to buy VMT credits or simply take a bus. Most likely the VMT Department that will arise to administer this will also issue travel permits to destinations on the approved list.
Posted by: sulleny | October 17, 2009 at 10:48 AM
It would be easier and much simpler to use extra fuel tax to have all users pay for overuse of highways, roads and streets. Fuel tax has a direct relationship with GHG emitted by every vehicle. It could be applied progressively and be limited to an extra $0.50/gal/year not to over-upset the economy. It should have started in 1974.
Tax credits or partial refunds could compensate low wage earners and users with higher fuel economy vehicles.
Posted by: HarveyD | October 18, 2009 at 07:36 AM
Fuel tax is the easiest tool, but it's too easy for governments to it use to excess beyond what is fair and reasonable.
The UK has done this, and has gone far beyond the levels of duty that would have long ago persuaded the majoprity of the driving population to buy the most efficient sized vehicle. The government is out there to get the very minority that have so called gas-guzzlers and hurt the general public in the process with gas prices which is taxed by over 300%.
The fuel protests of 2000 brought this into check. But now we have another annual stealth tax based on CO2 emissions. The fairness of this apporoach is brought sharply into check when comparing between:
- a large but low income family which owns larger car but only use it occasioinaly, say for 5000 miles. They get clobbered £400 ($700) but generate less carbon than;
- the single suburbanite who has a smaller car and uses it to get just about everywhere, say 20,000 miles, and only has to, say pay £100 ($160), even though his carbon footprint is probably more than double the family, and many times over the net footprint per family member.
Then we get "right-on" local authorities such as Richmond-upon-Thames who have a ridiculous scheme to charge for resident permits and public parking based on Co2 emissions - so that tells me that people get hammered also because they are not using their cars like the government has asked us to? Which way really to we turn without ending up being taxed to death?
disproportionately more than the single suburbanite who drives absolutely everywhere to go to work 30 miles away and so on.
Posted by: Scott | October 19, 2009 at 03:23 AM
Scott:
You described an unfair carbon tax or vehicle tax.
A fuel tax is fairer because you pay as you use.
Low wage earners could be compensated with tax credits.
Fuel taxes should go into a restricted transportation fund. This fund could be used to:
1- improve electrified public transportation.
2- improve highways, roads and streets.
3- accellerate the transition to electrified vehicles.
Posted by: HarveyD | October 20, 2009 at 09:53 AM
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California’s global warming legislation requires...
LOL! California lawmakers are the laughing stock of the world. California became the eight largest economy by encouraging people and businesses to locate there. Now they've legislated, regulated, and spent themselves into bankruptcy. So what is the solution: California decides, based on the false Globalwarmism religion (what ever happened to separation of church and state?!?), to drive even more businesses out of the state by jacking costs up to please one religion.
Once again, is is proven that liberalism/socialism doesn't work. Good luck California tax payers! You work for the state now. The Great Experiment of letting states show what does and doesn't work... works!
Praise be unto Algore!
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