Forecast: Cumulative Hybrid and Plug-in Hybrid Fleet Sales to Reach Nearly 4 Million Units By 2015

18 November 2009

Cumulative sales of hybrid vehicles in the fleet sector will total nearly 4 million worldwide between 2009 and 2015, according to a recent report from Pike Research. The cleantech market intelligence firm forecasts that hybrid fleet sales will increase from 300,000 in 2009 to more than 830,000 in 2015, with the largest growth categories in medium- and heavy-duty trucks and buses.

Pike Research managing director Clint Wheelock says that North America will be the leading region in terms of hybrid fleet penetration, with hybrids reaching 8% of all fleet sales in the next five years. Early adopters will include government, university, and utility company fleets. Asia Pacific will be the leader in terms of unit volumes by that time, reaching 420,000 fleet hybrids sold per year, though the hybrid penetration will be somewhat lower than North America’s.

Manufacturers are beginning to turn their attention beyond light duty vehicles to the efficiency opportunities for hybrid drive in heavy trucks. For example, in North America nearly 10% of buses sold in 2015 will be hybrids.

—Clint Wheelock

Many companies are grappling with the need to both cut costs and reduce carbon emissions, and their vehicle fleets represent a significant portion of this challenge. Fleet managers are searching for the best ways to achieve both goals, thus driving further investigation of electric vehicles as an alternative to internal combustion engine vehicles, according to the report. Hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) offer lower emissions and better fuel economy—between 10% and 40% higher than comparable internal combustion vehicles. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are the next step, potentially offering zero-emissions transportation depending on how far the vehicle travels.

Most HEV programs now cover almost all segments from small cars to medium- and heavy-duty (M/HD) trucks to luxury vehicles. Almost every vehicle manufacturer has a hybrid program and the economic downturn has not hit HEVs as hard as ICE vehicles. As a result, sales of HEV will maintain relatively steady sales globally (compound annual growth rate of 11% by 2015), thanks to new vehicle introductions, government fuel economy/emissions legislation, and economic growth in Asia.

PHEV programs will initially fall into the small car segment (82% of sales in 2013), which will not match the greatest needs of fleet customers (the small car segment will be 20% of commercial vehicle registrations in 2013). However, M/HD trucks are also receiving PHEV treatments. Trucks can be combined easily with PHEV drivetrains since there is such a wide variety of customization in the trucks after the chassis and drivetrain are assembled. Costs remain an issue, though, because the trucks will require much larger capacity batteries, thereby increasing the total vehicle costs.

—“Hybrid Electric Vehicles for Fleet Markets”

In 2008, Pike notes, In 2008, the North America market accounted for 63% of global hybrid sales. By 2015, it is expected to comprise 38% of global PHEV sales.

By 2015, Pike Research forecasts the United States to be the largest market for HEVs and PHEVs, selling 435,484 and 204,110 vehicles respectively, followed closely by China with 371,198 and 190,125 vehicles respectively. PHEVs are widely expected to be a subset of the HEV market. Consequently, it is probable that PHEVs will follow a similar sales curve initially, with worldwide sales exceeding half a million vehicles by 2015.

The overall number of commercial vehicle registrations and fleet sales fell in 2008 and will continue to fall during 2009 in most regions (China being an exception). However, as a result of increasing government restrictions on corporate emissions and vehicle fuel economy in many regions, hybrid fleet sales will not see the same level of decline as ICE fleet sales. Pike Research forecasts total hybrid fleet sales to grow rapidly (global CAGR of 16.6% between 2008 and 2015) as a result of a new segment of hybrids, the PHEV, which will be more widely available for fleet purchases after 2010. Overall HEVs and PHEVs are expected to globally sell well over 800,000 units combined to fleets by 2015.

—“Hybrid Electric Vehicles for Fleet Markets”

Pike Research’s study, “Hybrid Electric Vehicles for Fleet Markets”, analyzes the opportunities and challenges for HEVs and PHEVs in fleet markets around the world, including light cars and trucks as well as the medium/heavy duty truck segments. The study examines global growth drivers and business case considerations for fleet managers, and includes detailed 7-year market forecasts as well as profiles for key industry players.