Green Car Congress  
Go to GCC Discussions forum About GCC Contact  RSS Subscribe Twitter headlines

« New Bifunctional Catalysts Offers Improved Performance and Stability for Direct Synthesis of Dimethyl Ether from Syngas | Main | Rice University Study and Policy Paper Find US Biofuels Policies Flawed, Recommend Fundamental Overhaul »

Print this post

JAMA: Supporting Growth of Japan Plug-in Vehicle Fleet to 600,000 by 2020 Will Require Combination of Technical Breakthroughs, Market Innovations and the Elimination of Obstacles

6 January 2010

Jamaev1
Technical challenges facing EVs. Source: JAMA. Click to enlarge.

According to the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association (JAMA), as of 2008, Japan had about 600,000 “next-generation” vehicles—including hybrids and electric vehicles—in service, representing 0.8% of Japan’s total fleet. Among the next-generation vehicles, only 2,500 are electric vehicles, JAMA said during the biennial Environmentally Friendly Vehicle (EFV) held the last week of November 2009 in New Delhi, India. However, JAMA cited McKinsey data to point out that, assuming Japan will account for 10% of the world’s total demand for next-generation vehicles, sales of electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles will reach 600,000 units in the year 2020.

Supporting that level of growth will require an integrated and cooperative approach, JAMA said. Besides the technical innovations in the battery technologies and other components and aspects of the vehicle itself, market innovations such as development of in infrastructure and the creation of initial demand is part of the approach; so is the elimination of obstacles such as inappropriate regulations and standards.

Jamaev2
Scenarios for widespread EV use. Source: JAMA. Click to enlarge.

JAMA pointed out that more recently, the focus of the automobile industry on the energy and environmental challenges facing it have shifted from air pollution to challenges from global warming and energy shortages, which are considered the two most urgent issues. To address both of these issues, the key is the reduction of petroleum consumption. For motor vehicles, this means the increase of fuel efficiency and greater use of non-petroleum energies. While research and development are in progress for fuel cells, in the meantime the most important direction in powertrain technology is electrification in the medium- and long-term, JAMA said.

While batteries represent the primary technical issue facing the successful commercialization of electric vehicles, other issues must also be addressed for a full diffusion of electric vehicles into the market.

Currently, JAMA said, the average driving range of electric vehicles is only about one-fourth or one-fifth of other types of vehicles. Therefore, for the time being, the use of electric vehicles will be limited to short distance driving commuting. Besides the need to ensure a sufficiently long service life of batteries, drastically lowering the cost of battery is also important.

In the performance and cost targets drawn up by The Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry has set a cost target for electric vehicle batteries by 2030 that is one-fortieth of their current cost. To meet this, said JAMA, a “phenomenal breakthrough” in the improved performance of the battery is essential. Industry, government and academic sectors are working together for the development of next-generation batteries in Japan.

As an example of joint industry, government and academic innovation to facilitate the introduction of plug-in vehicles, JAMA cited the “EV-PHV (Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle) Town Project”. This project takes place in eight different local communities in Japan with the support of stakeholders such as government, automobile manufacturers, electric power companies and users. JAMA expects that this project will accelerate the use of electric vehicles as well as plug-in hybrid vehicles.

January 6, 2010 in Electric (Battery), Japan, Policy | Permalink | Comments (14) | TrackBack (0)

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d8341c4fbe53ef012876afb5b4970c

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference JAMA: Supporting Growth of Japan Plug-in Vehicle Fleet to 600,000 by 2020 Will Require Combination of Technical Breakthroughs, Market Innovations and the Elimination of Obstacles:

Comments

Next generation batteries cost to be 1/40 (2.5%) of the current cost by 2030.

Asumming the current cost to be between $500/Kwh and $1000/Kwh, the 2030 cost could be between $12.5/Kwh and $25/Kwh or an average cost of $18.75/Kwh.

A light weight BEV with a 100Kwh ($1875) battery could drive 700 Km to 1000 Km per single charge. This would render most ICE vehicles obsolete from both initial and operation cost point of view. Oil imports and oil wars would be over.

With more efforts and resources, could the evolution to next generation batteries be accellerated enough to have them on the market 10 years earlier? That could put an end to oil wars by 2025.

Assuming that oil wars cost $100B+/year + human lives, a $1500B+ investment in next generation batteries would be justified.

The cheapest battery to make for high bursts of power is probably the bipolar lead battery from EFFPOWER. Supercapacitor systems are much more complicated and costly for the same amount of power.

For low power medium capacity energy storage some variant of the lead battery including the Firefly can be used, and electronic converters can move power between them. Optima lead batteries are quite well engineered for this purpose also.

Manufacturing automation can make the ZEBRA battery more cost effective for this kind of service but lead technology is now more than adequate for plug-in-hybrid operation.

The TESLA is an example of the ICE bigger is better idea carried to its electrical conclusion.

For lightweight high capacity energy storage and production a liquid fuel tank plus the highly loved and widely denounced Internal (Infernal) Combustion Engine (ICE) can be used, but only as a series hybrid system where it is used during a small fraction of the automobiles trips. Capstone like, small turbines can even be used, but OPOC super-small diesels are more efficient if that is required.

Diesel engines can be nearly as efficient as fuel cells and far cheaper and the fuels can be cheaper too. The free piston diesel engine, Chiron, built by NOAX should not be continued to be ignored for hybrid use or range extender use.

Extra high efficiency is not required or economic if the range extender is seldom used. The normal ICE is not at all efficient as used in most automobiles. Coal fired steam locomotives have been built with better efficiency.

At the generator of any commercial electric generating station, electricity is quite cheap and there is also lots of heat available for high temperature production of hydrogen by electrolysis. This hydrogen can be combined with captured CO2 to make methanol which is an adequate fuel fro range extenders.

At a coal or natural gas fired generating station, hydrogen can be made from the coal by a far more efficient and cheaper thermochemical process that was invented over a century ago and still subject to improvements. This hydrogen with its coproduced Carbon Monoxide can also be made into methanol. Sharing the Coal handling facilities with a steam power plant can lead to significant economies for methanol production.

Japan can expand its nuclear generation to produce hydrogen for methanol to be used in plug in hybrid vehicles. The night surplus electrical capacity that is not used for vehicle battery charging can be used for methanol production. Coal not burned at night can be diverted to methanol production.

I will not present the figures that show that hydrogen, even from electrolysis, is cheaper at times than imported crude oil, and that methanol made from this hydrogen and recaptured CO2 is a cheap enough fuel for range extended plug in hybrid vehicles. ..HG..

HG:

Next generation batteries or storage units would have much higher energy density (1000+ Wh/Kg vs about 250 Wh/Kg for current best lithium units) This type of energy density will require new technology. IBM and a few other R & D projects have similar units-technology on the drawing board.

Secondly, this new technology will have to cost 40 times less than current high cost lithium batteries. That is a very tall order for e-storage units manufacturing.

However, this type of cost reduction will be possible with PRINTED color displays, solar cells, LED lights, image sensors and similar units by 2015/2020.

"the focus of the automobile industry on the energy and environmental challenges facing it have shifted from air pollution to challenges from global warming and energy shortages, which are considered the two most urgent issues."

This is a failure of vision. Air pollution remains a challenge typified by diesel particulates. Driving an EV or PHEV lowers the need for fossil fuel and therefor real air pollution. These connections MUST be made by the information and marketing agents behind EV introductions. Energy shortage and social impacts of fossil imports are the key issues. Global warming is a dead issue and trying to use it now will only f*ck up electrification.

JAMA, don't blow the opportunity trying to save "face" on the climate debacle. Electrification is needed to keep national economies and security strong.

Henry, I'd like to see demos of the coal/H2/methanol plant and nuclear/H2/methanol. If these coal plants in China and India were also making a renewable fuel - we could better justify their introduction and use.

"set a cost target for electric vehicle batteries by 2030 that is one-fortieth of their current cost"

Only metal-air can do this, and a cheap metal too, probably Aluminium or Zinc. Whoever cracks the long-cycle-life rechargeability of the metal-air battery will be a very wealthy person indeed.

Maybe you don't need 1000 or 5000 cycles in a battery, if it is easily recyclable and replaceable.

People assume that the battery has to last the life of the car - this does not have to be so.

What is required is a battery that gives an acceptable cost per mile and reasonable maintenance times and costs.

It you had to get a battery replaced and recycled every year as part of an annual service, this would not be the end of the world. This might work out for up to 12K miles / year.

This would be a 100 x 120 miles (@4 miles / KwH) = 100 charges of 30 KwH / battery cycle.

If you needed higher mileage, better stick to a diesel PHEV or HEV - ditto if it is very cold often!

Frankly, I find a 40x reduction in battery cost in 20 years unlikely, but I would be willing (and happy) to eat crow if it happened.

They say “While batteries represent the primary technical issue facing the successful commercialization of electric vehicles, other issues must also be addressed for a full diffusion of electric vehicles into the market.”

Batteries are the only significant issue. Others barriers will vanish if batteries become cheap.

“… has set a cost target for electric vehicle batteries by 2030 that is one-fortieth of their current cost. .. .. . , a “phenomenal breakthrough” . . . the battery is essential.”

Wow, 1/40 – I also find that [mahonj] “ . . .a 40x reduction in battery cost in 20 years unlikely, but I would be willing (and happy) to eat crow if it happened.”

As an example of . . innovation to facilitate the introduction of plug-in vehicles, JAMA cited the “EV-PHV (Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle) Town Project”.

Well, if battery cost drops by 40x, no “Town Projects” will be needed.
If battery costs evolve downward only slowly, “Town Projects” will be of little help.

Except the size of batteries near term would require a complete dis-assembly of the vehicle to replace it. And who pays for battery replacements?

Al air has the best specs theoretically. But there is no practical recharge method.

Zinc-air batteries use very cheap materials and are up to 450 Wh/kg in terms of specific energy. A 200 mile range battery would therefore weigh about 110 kg, small enough to be easily replaced at a service interval as suggested by mahonj.

Revolt are investigating rechargeable zinc-air batteries that may come to something.

http://www.revolttechnology.com/

The technologies to be used for the next generation batteries may not have reached the drawing board yet.

One may speculate that it will be very different from current Lead, NiMH and Li-On. Lower cost Nano technologies and lower cost materials may play a major role. The effective anodes area have to be multiplied by 100x or more without raising the volume and weight of the unit.

Fully automated production facilities will help to lower mass production cost. Establishing the essential very costly facilities may require government investment, not necessarily handouts. Since those plants will become very profitable, short term loans should be enough to get them started and remain competitive.

I see the pointy headed managers are bussy trying to look important before budget cuts again...

"Fully automated production facilities will help to lower mass production cost."

But not the capital equipment cost for the fully automated production facilities which will be high and must to be added to the cost of the manufactured battery.

Chinese workers are cheaper then robots.

W-2000:...You have a good point put fully automated production lines can normally produce better copies of the originals. High speed fully automated machines should be able to mass produce cheaper batteries.

Governments may have to help with very low interest loans to offset some of the initial factory high set up cost.

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been posted. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment

Green Car Congress © 2013 BioAge Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved. | Home | BioAge Group