AAB Study Projects Global EV New Vehicle Sales of Up to 400,000 Units by 2020, PHEV Sales of 500,000 Units by 2020
A new study, “The Plug-In Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Opportunity Report” authored by Dr. Menahem Anderman of the consulting firm Advanced Automotive Battery (AAB) projects that global EV market share will grow from negligible levels in 2009 to 0.13% of the 2015 new-vehicle market, and up to 0.50% of the 2020 new-vehicle market, which is anticipated at 80 million units annually—i.e., about 400,000 EV units by 2020.
Under the Report baseline estimate, the global plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV) market will grow from essentially zero in 2009 to 500,000 units in 2020, and the associated Li-Ion automotive battery business—which includes EV, PHEV and HEV batteries—from $150 million in 2009 to $8.4 billion in 2020.
Most established automakers will cautiously field a few thousand vehicles annually starting in 2011-2013—much lower numbers than suggested by heavy media coverage of the technology, the report suggests—and plan to increase production pending prove-out of the technology.
The report notes that the market will be initially bolstered by heavy subsidies to automakers, battery makers, and consumers, but that sustained growth will depend on yet-to-be-proven battery technology as well as on supporting government policies.
AAB’s in-depth report is based on on-site interviews with senior battery technologists and business development executives at 20 major automakers and 15 of their current and prospective battery suppliers on three continents.
In addition to reviewing the history and lessons learned of electric-vehicle and battery development, the report contains detailed information about the Li-Ion battery: its economics, design, manufacturing, performance, and durability.
The report notes the critical importance of battery reliability and discusses the technological status and manufacturing position of battery producers. It also points to half a dozen Japanese and Korean battery manufacturers, and some Chinese and US manufacturers, who are best positioned to succeed in the market-with forecasts for each battery supplier.
Dr. Anderman is founder and chairman of the annual Advanced Automotive Battery Conference (AABC), the tenth of which is scheduled for 17-21 May 2010 in Orlando, Florida. Dr. Anderman is also chair of the SAE International Vehicle Battery Summit in Shanghai, China, 1-2 September 2010. (Earlier post.) The Summit is co-sponsored by the Society of Automotive Engineers of China (SAE-China), and organized in cooperation with Advanced Automotive Batteries USA and the China Automotive Technology and Research Center (CATARC).