|Annual light-duty electric vehicle sales, world markets: 2011-2017. Source: Pike Research. Click to enlarge.|
Pike Research forecasts that cumulative sales of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), the category that includes both plug-in hybrid and battery-electric vehicles (PHEVs and BEVs), will reach 5.2 million units worldwide by 2017, up from just under 114,000 vehicles in 2011. By the same year, cumulative sales of hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs) will represent an additional 8.7 million vehicles, for a combined total of 13.9 million units in all electrified vehicle categories.
Overall, the market for electrified vehicles will grow at a CAGR of 19.5% between 2011 and 2017 (this compares to a CAGR of 3.7% for the vehicle market overall during the same period), according to Pike. The plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) will see substantial growth (48.4% CAGR) because it is currently still in its infancy.
Pike anticipates that the market for PEVs is expected to grow to 1,342,067 vehicles annually by 2017—about 1.4% of the global light-duty vehicle market. The Asia Pacific region will be the leading market due to the strength of the Japanese market and growth in China in the coming years. Pike says that the annual market for hybrid electric and plug-in electric vehicles will grow to 2.9 million vehicles by 2017.
The PEV market is anticipated to miss many of the targets set by various government bodies because vehicle programs have not been launching as rapidly as expected even a year ago. In the United States, President Obama’s goal for 1 million PEVs on the roads by 2015 appears to be well beyond what the actual vehicle market is likely to be. Germany has set a goal of 1,000,000 PEVs by 2020—almost twice the 512,701 PEVs forecast to be on the roads in that country by 2017.—“Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts”
While electrified vehicles will become a growing portion of total vehicle sales, the penetration rates will remain relatively low in the context of the total automotive industry. Pike forecasts that PEV and HEV sales together will represent approximately 3% of total light-duty vehicle sales in 2017. Adoption rates will be highest in North America, Pike projects, where electrified vehicles will capture 4.9% of the total light-duty vehicle market in that year.
Pike Research’s report, “Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts”, analyzes the key market forces playing a role in the electric vehicle market and provides lists of expected vehicle launches. The report includes detailed forecasts through 2017 for light duty vehicle sales, as well as retail and fleet sales of hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric vehicles, segmented by world region and key countries. Anticipated market shares for selected manufacturers are also provided for the United States.