Pike forecasts sales of electric two-wheelers in Asia Pacific to reach more than 65M units in 2018; China dominates
|Electric two-wheel vehicle sales by country, Asia Pacific: 2012-2018. Source: Pike Research. Click to enlarge.|
Pike Research forecasts that annual sales of electric two-wheel vehicles (e-scooters, e-motorcycles, and e-bicycles) will show robust growth and reach more than 65 million units in 2018. Sales will be dominated by China, where annual sales of electric two-wheel vehicles will reach more than 60 million units in 2018 at a CAGR of 6.6%.
On a cumulative basis, forecasts Pike, sales in China will reach more than 355 million units by 2018, with cumulative electric two-wheel vehicle sales in Asia Pacific will reach more than 381 million units in 2018.
Sales of internal combustion engine (ICE) scooters are strong in China, India, and most Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries compared to other regions of the world due to their fuel efficiency and ease of use in congested traffic, Pike Research notes in its report.
Electric and traditional two-wheel vehicle manufacturers are paying attention to rising demand for the vehicles. Since the penetration rates in rural areas are lower than urban areas, rural areas are the main business target for ICE two-wheel vehicle manufacturers in developing countries. Incumbent players are teaming up with supply chain vendors and components suppliers to initiate market leadership. While electric two-wheel vehicle players are likely to focus on their current main consumers in the urban and semi-urban middle income classes, they are also strengthening marketing to the rural segment in the coming years.
Pike finds that lead-acid batteries will be the primary storage technology used in the Asia Pacific electric two-wheel vehicle markets; Li-ion batteries will account for a smaller (but growing) share of the technology used in e-scooters and e-motorcycles.
Lead-acid will remain the battery of choice for most manufacturers in China, according to the report, although growth in Li-ion storage on Chinese e-scooters and e-motorcycles will be driven largely by the reduction in cost of Li-ion cells in China.
In contrast, Japan will show a far different rate of adoption of Li-ion batteries in both e-scooters and e-motorcycle, since there is a high level of consumer expectation for the quality and durability of battery performance. The percentage of e-scooters with Li-ion batteries in Japan will reach 37% in 2018, according to Pike, while the percentage used in e-motorcycles will reach 100% by 2015. In Asia Pacific overall, the use of Li-ion batteries in e-scooters and e-motorcycles is expected to grow at CAGRs of 10.4% and 11.3%, respectively, between 2012 and 2018.
Key findings in electric two-wheel vehicle market opportunities include:
E-Scooters. China will make up the vast majority of the Asia Pacific e-scooter market (more than 15.4 million annual sales in 2018), followed by India (more than 1.1 million units in 2018). Taiwan will experience the highest 2012-2018 CAGR (26.7%) in Asia Pacific for e-scooters.
E-Motorcycles. The e-motorcycle market in Asia Pacific is expected to be small compared with e-scooters, due to cost.
E-Bicycles. Pike expects India to be the second-largest market behind China for e-bicycles by 2018. The country will likely follow demand in China for scooter-style electric bicycles (SSEBs) with sealed lead-acid (SLA) batteries.